Kalshi Settlement Calendar: CPI Today, UFC 330 And The FedEx St. Jude Pay Out This Week (Aug 12–18)
Settlement is the whole point of a prediction market. A price is just an argument until the contract grades, and this Kalshi settlement calendar tracks every notable market that grades between August 12 and 18: three July inflation boards this morning, a UFC main event Saturday night, two professional golf tournaments Sunday, and the daily churn of Bitcoin ladders, MLB baseball games, tennis and cricket underneath all of it. The money on this week's board comes back in waves. If you know when each wave lands, you know when your capital is free to redeploy.
But here is the thing a raw list of dates won't tell you, and the reason this page exists: two of the biggest "settles this week" markets on the board, both elections, are not actually going to settle this week. The dates Kalshi's own API lists for them are placeholders that the fine print quietly overrides. We'll get to exactly why below, because reading those two markets correctly is worth more than the rest of the calendar combined.
The Quick Answer
The notable Kalshi markets settling this week, August 12 to 18: the July CPI markets (Wednesday morning, off the 8:30 a.m. ET BLS release), UFC 330: Makhachev vs Garry (Saturday night), and the FedEx St. Jude Championship and Danish Golf Championship winner boards (Sunday). The South Carolina Senate special primary market and James Fishback's Florida vote-share ladder both display settle dates inside this window, and both will slip for reasons written in their rules. The full calendar, and the fine print on those two, is below.
The Calendar: What Settles When
| Settles (ET) | Market | Ticker | Price now | What decides it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Aug 12, ~10:00 A.m. | July CPI, Year-Over-Year | KXCPIYOY-26JUL | "Above 3.3%" 53¢ bid / 55¢ ask | BLS July CPI release, 8:30 a.m. ET |
| Wed, Aug 12, ~10:00 A.m. | July CPI, Month-Over-Month | KXCPI-26JUL | ladder trades rung by rung | Same release |
| Wed, Aug 12, ~10:00 A.m. | July Core CPI, Year-Over-Year | KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUL | ladder trades rung by rung | Same release |
| Wed, Aug 12, Afternoon | Ireland Vs Afghanistan, ODI Cricket | KXODIMATCH-26AUG120545AFGIRL | favorite trading in the 70s | Match result |
| Sat, Aug 15, Late Night | UFC 330: Makhachev Vs Garry | KXUFCFIGHT-26AUG15MAKMGI | Makhachev 75¢ bid / 76¢ ask | Official fight result |
| Sun, Aug 16, Evening | FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner | KXPGATOUR-FESJC26 | Scheffler 15¢ bid / 16¢ ask | Final leaderboard, TPC Southwind |
| Sun, Aug 16 | Danish Golf Championship Winner | KXDPWORLDTOUR-DAGC26 | R. Højgaard 6.3¢ bid / 7.8¢ ask | Final leaderboard, DP World Tour |
| Every Day, 5:00 P.m. EDT | Bitcoin Daily Price Ladders | KXBTCD | new ladder each day | BTC price at the daily timestamp |
Every price in this table is live bid and ask, fetched from the Kalshi API as of 6:50 a.m. ET on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Prices will move, and settled rows will read very differently by the time you check them. Two markets are deliberately missing from this table; they get their own section, because their listed dates are the trap.
The row worth staring at first is the top one. The year-over-year CPI board has traded over 1.3 million contracts into this morning's release, and its live rung (inflation above 3.3% for the year ending July) sits at 53 to 55 cents. That is the market calling the print a coin flip, hours before the number drops.
The Morning Wave: Three CPI Boards, One Release
At 8:30 a.m. ET today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes July's Consumer Price Index, and three separate Kalshi boards grade off that single document: headline CPI year-over-year, headline month-over-month and core CPI year-over-year. Markets closed to trading at roughly 8:29 a.m., and the contracts are expected to expire around 10:00 a.m. That is about as clean as settlement gets: one scheduled government release, one number, cash in accounts by mid-morning.
The deep rungs already tell you what's priced in. Walk the bids down the ladder: "above 3.1%" at 96¢, "above 3.2%" at 86¢, and then comes the cliff: "above 3.3%" at 53¢. If ladders are new to you, our guide to reading a Kalshi ladder explains why that one-rung cliff is the entire story. For the deeper play-by-play on this specific release, our AI panel broke down the July core CPI board before the print.
Remember that 53¢ coin flip. It's the honest baseline we'll measure the week's messier settlements against.
Saturday Night: UFC 330 Settles Before You're Asleep
The fight markets are the calendar's best example of fast, unambiguous grading. At UFC 330 on Saturday, August 15, Islam Makhachev faces Ian Machado Garry, and the Kalshi market (1.5 million contracts traded and counting) has Makhachev at 75¢ bid / 76¢ ask, Garry at 25/26¢. The market settles on the official result. Kalshi's listed expected expiration is 2:50 a.m. ET Sunday, but that's a padded marker sitting hours past the final bell: the main card starts at 6:00 p.m. EDT in Philadelphia, and fight markets in practice grade shortly after the result goes official.
Here is the full arithmetic of holding a settlement through fight night. Buy 100 YES contracts on Makhachev at the 76¢ ask: that's $76.00 in cost plus about $1.28 in trading fees. Kalshi's fee formula charges the most at coin-flip prices and less at the extremes; the math is in our Kalshi fees breakdown. If Makhachev wins, the position settles at $1.00 per contract: $100.00 back, $22.72 net. If Garry wins, the contracts expire at zero. No cash-out negotiation, no pending period measured in days. The result goes official and the market grades. If you're used to sportsbook MMA prices, the translation from cents to American odds is covered in our UFC odds guide.
Sunday: Two Golf Tournaments Pay Their Winner Boards
Sunday is the week's biggest single settlement day by volume. The FedEx St. Jude Championship, the FedEx Cup playoffs opener at TPC Southwind in Memphis running August 13 to 16 with 70 players and no cut, carries the largest open board on this calendar: 69 active player markets and more than 22 million contracts traded. Scottie Scheffler heads it at 15¢ bid / 16¢ ask, with Rory McIlroy back at 5.5/5.7¢. The whole board grades on one fact, the final leaderboard, expected Sunday evening when the CBS broadcast window closes. Our full FedEx St. Jude odds breakdown has the player-by-player read.
Across the Atlantic, the DP World Tour's Danish Golf Championship settles the same Sunday, and it's the opposite shape from Memphis: 147 player markets and nobody priced above 8¢. Rasmus Højgaard leads at 6.3¢ bid / 7.8¢ ask, barely ahead of Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra at 6.2/6.5¢. A board that flat is a field bet wearing 147 costumes. We track the golf boards weekly in our Kalshi golf picks hub.
The one I keep coming back to on Sunday isn't a player at all. It's the gap between the two boards: Memphis has a 16¢ favorite and a real hierarchy, Denmark has none. Same sport, same settlement day, completely different risk being priced.
The Two Dates That Will Slip: Read The Rules, Not The Calendar
Now the fine print. Kalshi's API lists an "expected expiration" for every market, and for scheduled events (a government release, a fight, a final round) it's reliable. For elections, it's a placeholder that the rules override. Two live examples are on the board right now.
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary (KXSCRSENS-26). The API says this settles by Friday, August 14. It won't. Tuesday's primary ended with no candidate clearing 50%: appointed Sen. Darline Graham Nordone took 32.7% and Rep. Ralph Norman 24.6%, sending them to an August 25 runoff, per AP projections. And the market's own rules anticipate exactly this: "Note: This market resolves to the ultimate winner of the primary, not the 1st round winner, unless they receive a majority." Nine of the board's eleven candidate markets already graded NO on election night; the two survivors stay open another eleven days past the listed date. Nordone, with 3.3 million contracts traded on her market alone, sits at 72¢ bid / 73¢ ask, and Norman at 27/28¢. Those are runoff prices now. Our South Carolina Senate market breakdown covers the race itself.
James Fishback's Florida vote-share ladder (KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS). The API stamps this Tuesday, August 18, which is Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary day. But this is a vote-percentage ladder, and its rules say resolution "is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results." Election night tells you roughly where Fishback landed; certification is what pays, and certification takes longer than a news cycle. The ladder currently prices "at least 10%" at 64¢ bid / 66¢ ask, "at least 15%" at 32/34¢ and "at least 20%" at 14/15¢, across 3.2 million contracts traded. The full board and the story behind it are in our James Fishback Kalshi odds hub, and the broader midterm slate lives on our 2026 midterm election odds page.
Set these two against this morning's CPI settlement and the lesson writes itself: a scheduled data release grades in ninety minutes, while an election market's real settle date lives in its rules text, not its calendar field. If a settle date matters to you (because you want the capital back for the weekend's boards, say), the rules tab is the only date that counts. What actually happens between "event over" and "cash in account" is covered in our guide to how Kalshi settlement works.
The Daily Churn Underneath The Headline Dates
Around the marquee settlements, a whole layer of Kalshi markets settles every single day this week. The Bitcoin daily ladders grade at 5:00 p.m. EDT each afternoon (Friday's board alone has traded over a million contracts), and a fresh ladder replaces each settled one; our Kalshi Bitcoin markets guide covers how those rungs work. Wednesday's slate settles an ODI cricket match, Ireland vs Afghanistan, by afternoon. The pro tennis boards turn over just as fast: the WTA match market on Sramkova vs Jacquemot, settling early Thursday, has traded over 330,000 contracts on its own. And every MLB game market on the board settles the night it's played. If you trade those, it's worth comparing Kalshi's game prices against the sportsbook side on the live odds screen, where you can shop the same number across every major book before deciding which venue actually has the better price.
And here is what the churn actually tells you: liquidity on Kalshi follows the settle date, not the headline. Wednesday's ATP Challenger tennis match between Sun and Pankin traded 1.18 million contracts into a settlement clocked for 6:30 a.m. ET — more volume than the entire month-over-month CPI board (1.16 million) drew for one of the most-watched economic prints of the month. Traders congregate wherever something pays out today, which is why this calendar is never really finished: the headline dates anchor the week, but a meaningful share of the open board turns over before Sunday even arrives.
How To Use This Page
This is a permanent page, rebuilt every week with the new settlement slate. Every one of the Kalshi settlement dates above is pulled from the API, and every price is quoted as live bid and ask at capture time. Use it the way sharp traders use any calendar: to know when your capital comes free, to catch the markets whose listed dates are lying to you, and to spot where the week's real liquidity is concentrating before it settles. If you're newer to trading event contracts and want the mechanics from the top, start with our guide to how to bet sports on Kalshi. And if you'd rather act on this week's games than trade the calendar, our experts post free picks daily across every major sport.
FAQ
When do Kalshi markets settle? Whenever their underlying event resolves; there is no single settlement hour. This week alone: CPI markets settle mid-morning off an 8:30 a.m. ET release, Bitcoin dailies at 5:00 p.m. EDT, and UFC 330 in the small hours after Saturday's main event.
Do Kalshi markets settle as soon as the event ends? Close to it, for scheduled events with an unambiguous result like fights, games and data releases. Markets typically grade within an hour or two of the official result. Election and certification-based markets can take days or weeks longer, because their rules require official or certified outcomes.
What if a market's listed settle date passes and it hasn't settled? Check the rules, not the calendar field. The "expected expiration" is an estimate; the rules define what actually resolves the market. The South Carolina primary market on this week's board is the live example: its listed date is August 14, but its rules push settlement to the August 25 runoff winner.
One week, one page, every date verified against the API and the rules underneath it. The calendar tells you when the money moves; the fine print tells you when it actually arrives. Check back next week — the board will have turned over, and the new slate's traps will be different.
