The Quick Answer: Every favorite won. Kalshi priced every nominee board on the September 1 Massachusetts primary, and the candidate the morning price favored took each one. Ed Markey, bid at 99.5 cents that morning, beat Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The only board the market left in real doubt was MA-08, where Stephen Lynch, priced at 79 cents, held off Patrick Roath by 11. The settled board is below, along with the two districts where the spread disagreed with the price.
Every Massachusetts Board On Kalshi, In One Table
| Race | Winner (board settled yes) | Sept. 1, 11:35 a.m. bid / ask (¢) | Runner-up on the board (morning bid / ask) | Near-final result | Board finalized (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate (D) | Ed Markey | 99.5 / 99.7 | Seth Moulton (0.4 / 0.6) | 65% to 35%, 95% counted | Sept. 1, 9:04 p.m. |
| U.S. Senate (R) | John Deaton | 99.5 / 99.9 | Lewis Evangelidis (0.1 / 0.5) | Unopposed | Sept. 1, 8:54 p.m. |
| Governor (R) | Michael Minogue | 98.0 / 99.3 | Brian Shortsleeve (0.9 / 2.0) | 75.8% to 24.2%, 98.9% counted | Sept. 1, 11:00 p.m. |
| MA-01 (D) | Richard Neal | 90 / 93 | Jeromie Whalen (8 / 11) | 54.1% to 45.9%, 98.3% counted | Sept. 2, 11:21 a.m. |
| MA-03 (D) | Lori Trahan | 99 / 100 | Gaige Clark (0 / 1) | Won, board settled yes | Sept. 1, 11:28 p.m. |
| MA-04 (D) | Jake Auchincloss | 96 / 97 | Jason Poulos (3 / 6) | Won, board settled yes | Sept. 1, 11:25 p.m. |
| MA-05 (D) | Katherine Clark | 98.5 / 99.1 | Jonathan Paz (0.7 / 1.5) | Won, board settled yes | Sept. 1, 11:26 p.m. |
| MA-06 (D) | Dan Koh | 88 / 89 | Tram Nguyen (12 / 14) | 41.0% to 29.5% (Beccia 12.1%), 99% counted | Sept. 1, 11:27 p.m. |
| MA-06 (R) | Micah Jones | 99 / 100 | John Field (0 / 1) | Unopposed | Sept. 1, 11:29 p.m. |
| MA-08 (D) | Stephen Lynch | 79 / 82 | Patrick Roath (20 / 22) | 55.7% to 44.3%, 98.4% counted | Sept. 2, 11:21 a.m. |
| MA-09 (D) | Bill Keating | 96 / 99 | Craig Swallow (2 / 4) | Won, board settled yes | Sept. 1, 11:26 p.m. |
Morning quotes are the two highest-priced strikes on each board at 11:35 a.m. on September 1; most boards carried more names at a penny or less, and not all of them were on the ballot (more on that below). "Finalized" is Kalshi's settlement timestamp in Eastern time. Percentages are the AP count as published by NBC News and WBUR; for the four rows without one, the result column is Kalshi's own settlement, which GBH's live blog corroborates for Clark, Auchincloss and Keating. NBC lists the MA-06 Republican race as uncontested, and Deaton was unopposed. Counts were near-final but not certified when this page was updated.
The Senate Race Was Over In August
Suffolk University's poll for the Boston Globe had Markey beating Moulton 52.2% to 37.6%, and a UMass Amherst poll out the same week had it wider still. On August 18, with both polls public, Markey's contract jumped from 83 cents to 90, and it never looked back. The Boston Globe editorial board backed Moulton that same day; Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez backed Markey, and the money sided with the polls over the editorial page.
By primary day the live trade was the size of the win, and the count came in 65% to 35% with 95% of ballots counted, wider than either August poll. Our Markey vs Moulton primary-day piece walks the margin ladder band by band and is the scoreboard to hold against the certified returns.
The rest of the decided tier was quieter. John Deaton was bid at 99.5 cents on the Republican Senate board because he was running unopposed; the half-cent the market withheld was house caution, and what Deaton does with the nomination matters for November, not for primary night. Micah Jones in MA-06 and Lori Trahan in MA-03 were priced the same way, with no real opponent behind them. The one contested statewide race, the Republican governor primary, was framed by Al Jazeera's primary-day rundown as a real ideological choice between Michael Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve. The market priced Minogue at 98 bid, and the count came in at roughly three to one. Maura Healey, unopposed on the Democratic side, had no board at all.
MA-08: The One Race The Market Doubted
Kalshi held two boards open through the night, MA-01 and MA-08, the same two districts this page had flagged on primary morning. MA-08 was the one where every endorsement signal pointed at the challenger. The Boston Globe endorsed Patrick Roath on August 23, Deval Patrick endorsed him in January, and David Hogg's Leaders We Deserve PAC made its case in an August post and sponsored a poll showing him gaining. Roath, 39, a voting-rights attorney, spent the summer arguing that Lynch's centrist record no longer fit the district.
The money read all of that and still wanted Lynch: 79 bid against Roath at 20 on primary morning, the only favorite on the ballot priced below 88 cents. That was the collision we unpacked in our MA-08 deep dive, with the market moving toward the 13-term incumbent all week while the Globe editorial landed for the challenger. Lynch's contract was the busiest House strike in the state, and Roath's, the second-busiest House strike, still finished at about two-thirds of it.
The doubt lasted about ten minutes. Lynch's contract sank to a size-weighted 75 cents right after polls closed, its low of the night, and was printing 99 by 9:40 p.m., two hours before the AP call. The result was 55.7% to 44.3%, and the market had faded the entire pro-Roath endorsement wave to call it.
MA-06: One Cent Of Spread On A Race Nobody Polled
MA-06 should have been the hardest board to price. It was the open seat Moulton gave up to run for Senate, the field was crowded, and, as our MA-06 breakdown documented, no independent public poll ever surfaced, only sponsor-funded numbers. The board carried a one-cent spread anyway: Dan Koh at 88 bid, 89 asked, as tight as boards where the favorite was priced ten points higher.
The confidence came from the money trail, which was public where the polling was not. DraftKings wrote a $250,000 check to New Leadership PAC, the super PAC spending for Koh, and Koh's roughly $4.7 million raised lapped Tram Nguyen's total. He carried endorsements from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris; Nguyen answered late, with Ayanna Pressley and Lori Trahan endorsing her on August 24. Koh won 41.0% to 29.5%, and the penny spread had been right to be confident.
MA-01 And MA-09: Where The Spread Disagreed With The Price
A three-cent gap between bid and ask means buyers and sellers disagreed about the real number, and two heavy favorites carried one on primary morning: Richard Neal in MA-01 and Bill Keating in MA-09. Both boards also had a challenger strike out-trading the incumbent's. Plenty of losing contracts out-traded winners on this ballot, Moulton's over Markey's included, but only on these two boards did the volume and a wide spread point the same way.
Neal spent heavily against Jeromie Whalen, a Northampton high school teacher making his first run with Our Revolution's endorsement, in a race that got exactly one debate. The price history agreed with the spread: for half an hour after 8:30 p.m., Neal's contract traded at a size-weighted 76 to 78 cents, the only stretch of the night where any favorite besides Lynch was in real doubt. The count was 54.1% to 45.9%, which Decision Desk HQ called the closest primary of Neal's long congressional career.
Keating's three cents in MA-09 rode on real volume, more than the MA-03, MA-05 and MA-06 Republican boards combined, and it graded as nothing at all: his board finalized that night with Craig Swallow at a penny. The scorecard for the spread tell is one for two. A wide spread plus challenger volume found the closest race on the ballot once and found noise once.
Why Some Names On The Boards Were Never On The Ballot
Kalshi lists strikes when races form, and some names age out without being removed. The Republican Senate board still carried Charlie Baker, Christopher Thrasher and Lewis Evangelidis behind an unopposed Deaton, and Evangelidis's strike out-traded Deaton's own. The Republican governor board listed Karyn Polito, Bruce Tarr, Peter Durant, Mike Kennealy, Lewis Evangelidis and Michael Soter on what was a two-man race between Minogue and Shortsleeve. The Democratic Senate board carried Ayanna Pressley, who was not on the certified field, and never listed William Gates, who was. Every one of those strikes resolved no alongside the real losers. A strike on a candidate who is not on the ballot cannot pay yes, so before treating any strike on the 2026 election boards we track as live, check the name against the certified field.
What Is Still Open
Every nominee board has settled. The Senate margin and vote-share ladders stay open until the count is certified, and only one rung has a real disagreement left in it: "Markey at least 65%," bid 1 and asked 5, sitting exactly on WBUR's rounded number from an uncertified count. Every rung below it is bid 99 and waiting on paperwork.
Primary day has folded into the general. Markey meets Deaton in November on the map that decides Senate control, Minogue meets Healey, and our daily Kalshi board read carries the grades on everything above. The habit this primary rewards is a simple one: where the endorsements and the price disagreed, the price was right, and where the spread was nervous, it was right to be nervous about half the time.
If you want what our experts are playing this week in the markets OddsShopper does cover, the free expert picks hub is live.
Settlement prices, times and volumes are from Kalshi's public API as of September 4, 2026; the September 1 morning quotes were live Kalshi market prices as of 11:35 a.m. Eastern that day. Vote counts are the AP tallies as published by NBC News and WBUR and were not yet certified when this page was updated. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
More on this: Markey vs Moulton: The Primary-Day Margin Ladder · MA-08: Lynch vs Roath, Endorsements Against The Money · MA-06: Koh, Nguyen And The DraftKings Check · Why Ed Markey (D) Will Win the MA Senate Primary · Why John Deaton (R) Will Win the MA Senate Primary
