Bobby Witt Jr. (+529) and Spencer Torkelson (+573) lead tonight's Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 35 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 37 |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 5 |
| Carter Jensen (KC) | +657 | ProphetX | 13.2% | 4 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | +688 | BookMaker | 12.7% | 37 |
| Eduardo Valencia (DET) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 36 |
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) | +852 | NoVig | 10.5% | 35 |
| Gleyber Torres (DET) | +849 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 10.5% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 23, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Kauffman Stadium: park index 93.9 · wind 7 mph.
- Salvador Perez (KC) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · homers every 19 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · NoVig +641
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — homers every 27 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +500
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) — 37% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +647 · NoVig +669
- Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) — punishes curveballs 16% of the time, and that is 6% of what this starter throws · homers every 26 PA against righties — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +770
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 18% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- Hao-Yu Lee (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 18% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — homers every 29 PA against lefties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · NoVig +733
- Corey Julks (DET) — 32% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1240 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +1240 · Polymarket +1095 · ProphetX +1078 · NoVig +852
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails likes Kansas City Royals Moneyline (+101). Bet now → Tipico
- Ziny Bets on Tails likes Daniel Lynch Over 11.5 Total Pitching Outs (-130).
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 Total Bases (+240). Bet now → HardRock
- OS Lottos on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Colt Keith Under 1.5 Total Bases (-160). Bet now
- ShanderBets on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Colt Keith Under 1.5 Total Bases (-160). Bet now
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes these plays:
- FOTP on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Kansas City Royals Under 8.5 Total Runs (-104).
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+590). Bet now → Novig
More from these experts on Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals. EdgeAI Plus, FOTP, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
