Munetaka Murakami (+387) and Colson Montgomery (+460) lead tonight's New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +387 | ProphetX | 20.5% | 37 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +456 | NoVig | 18.0% | 2 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 37 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 37 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +545 | NoVig | 15.5% | 38 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | +600 | Fanatics | 14.3% | 37 |
| Christopher Morel (NYM) | +625 | Kalshi | 13.8% | 23 |
| Andrew Benintendi (CHW) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 23, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rate Field: park index 103.2 · wind 10 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 13 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +387 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +387 · NoVig +376
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +456 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +456
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 25% of what this starter throws · 31% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics
- Carson Benge (NYM) — 12% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 25 PA against lefties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +669
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — punishes curveballs 15% of the time, and that is 4% of what this starter throws · homers every 24 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +770 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +770
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes sinkers and cutters 16% of the time, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · 30% of his damage flies pull-side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +525 at Fanatics
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · 32% of his damage flies pull-side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +545
- Eric Wagaman (NYM) — homers every 30 PA against lefties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · Polymarket +857 · NoVig +809
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Nolan McLean Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-113). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes these plays:
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-110). Bet now → DraftKings
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-118). Bet now
More from these experts on New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox. BGrebbs, CharlieChip, EdgeAI Plus, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
