Lindy's MLB Picks: Leans, Likes and Locks Recap
If you follow Eric Lindquist's MLB Leans, Likes and Locks show, you already know the format: every game on the board, a real price attached to every play, and a break-even number behind all of it. This is a recap of his end-of-week Friday card, but the part worth keeping is not any single bet. It is how he gets to a bet, because that process repeats every day of the season.
In Summary
- Lindy worked the full slate and only fired where the offered price cleared his break-even number — most games he passed.
- His headline plays were two home run shots at a long price (Cody Clemens at +600, Joe Adell at +375), a strikeout over he keeps re-backing (Jacob Misiorowski), and a starter-outs over (Roki Sasaki).
- The thread through all of it: find the gap between the fair price and the price on the screen. That is exactly what OddsShopper's odds screen and Portfolio EV true-odds are built to surface.
- New to OddsShopper? You can try the same tools free for 7 days, and code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month of OS Pro.
Watch the Video
Lindy walks the whole board game by game in the show below. The article pulls out the standout plays and the reasoning, but the full card is in the video.
Lindy's Standout Plays From the Card
Here are the plays Lindy leaned on hardest, with the price he flagged and the one-line reason. Prices move, so treat these as the read, not a live quote.
| Play | Game / Spot | Price Lindy Cited | The Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski Strikeout Over | vs. the Braves | inside -110 | Depleted Atlanta lineup, swing-and-miss arm he keeps re-backing |
| Cody Clemens Home Run | Twins, vs. Mike Soroka | +600 | Lefty power vs. a loft-heavy righty and a right-handed bullpen |
| Joe Adell Home Run | Angels, vs. Jeffrey Springs | +375 | Big right-handed ISO vs. a lefty who gives up power, no Mike Trout drawing attention |
| Jack Caglianone Home Run | Royals, at Kauffman | +575 | Elite exit velocity hitting near the top of the order |
| Roki Sasaki Over 15.5 Outs | Dodgers, at home | -117 | Gets the leash at home, and Pinnacle's sharper number sat higher |
The Home Run Play He Liked Most: Cody Clemens at +600
This is the cleanest worked example of how Lindy prices a long-shot home run, so it is worth slowing down on.
He had Cody Clemens batting third for the Twins against Mike Soroka. Soroka is not a soft matchup on paper, but Lindy's point was about shape: Soroka carries a 184 expected ISO and lives at an 18-degree launch angle or higher across his change-up, sinker, and fastball, so the contact he allows tends to go in the air. Behind him, the entire Arizona bullpen outside of one arm is right-handed, which means a left-handed bat like Clemens keeps the platoon edge deep into the game.
Then comes the part that actually makes it a bet. Lindy anchored the price against comps: other left-handed bats in that lineup with real power, like Ketel Marte, sit at +400 to +480 to go deep. Clemens, with the same kind of power and a clean platoon look, was hanging at +600. His read was simple — at that gap, "I just don't see how this isn't positive EV in just about every single category."
That is the whole move. He is not predicting Clemens hits a homer. He is saying the price is longer than the real chance, and over a season of bets priced like that, the math wins. A single result, win or lose, tells you nothing. (If the +EV math behind that is new to you, start there.) For a full breakdown of that exact Twins game, see our Twins vs. Diamondbacks home run picks.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100+ sportsbooks and prediction markets and flags where the price is longer than the true odds — the exact gap Lindy is hunting by hand. You can try it free for 7 days, and code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month of OS Pro. Start your free trial
The Strikeout Over He Keeps Re-Backing: Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski's strikeout over was the prop Lindy was most confident in, and it shows how he treats a repeatable spot. He had backed Misiorowski's strikeouts seven times across the season with one loss, so he went back to it again "inside of minus 110, over and over and over."
The matchup did the work. The Braves were missing Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris, so the lineup Lindy expected was easier to run swing-and-miss stuff through. He was clear about the variance, too: he did not need a 15-strikeout night, just enough whiffs to clear a low number against a thinned-out order.
One honest note he made himself, and it matters: a 7-1 record is a tiny sample. The reason to keep firing is not the record, it is that the price and the matchup keep clearing his number. Process over results, every time.
Joe Adell, Caglianone, and Reading Park and Lineup
The other two home run plays leaned on situation as much as the hitter:
- Joe Adell At +375 (Angels) was about a lefty starter, Jeffrey Springs, who gives up real right-handed power, plus a lineup with no Mike Trout. Lindy's logic: with Trout out, Adell draws the attention and the at-bats near the top of the order, and his 233 ISO and 290 expected ISO say he can punish a mistake.
- Jack Caglianone At +575 (Royals) was an exit-velocity bet. Caglianone hits the ball about 105 mph off the bat and had pushed near the top of the order, so even without elite launch, the raw contact plays at Kauffman.
He also leaned on totals where the park changed the math — an under at Wrigley with the wind blowing in instead of the usual gusts out, and an over lean at Coors with a struggling Rockies starter on the bump. Same idea as the home run plays: the number on the screen had not caught up to the conditions.
How Lindy Actually Builds a Card (and How to Copy It)
Strip away the specific names and the method is repeatable for any slate:
- Start from a fair price, not a feeling. Lindy talks constantly about his "break-even number." If the offered price is not past it, there is no bet, no matter how much he likes the player. Most games on his card end in a pass.
- Let the park and lineup move the number. Wind direction at Wrigley, the humidor and dimensions in one yard, a right-handed bullpen behind a loft-heavy starter — these are the inputs that make a price wrong.
- Shop the number once you have a play. He name-checks the exact book and price, and notes when a sharper book like Pinnacle sits a half-out higher on a strikeout total. Taking the worse number is leaving free expected value behind, which is the whole idea behind closing line value.
- Size to the spot. His home run shots are quarter-unit plays by default; a rare "like" gets bumped, but the variance gets respected. That edge-proportional approach is just bankroll management in practice.
You can run that same loop without doing the legwork by hand. The OddsShopper odds screen lines up every book and prediction market on one page so you can shop the number in seconds, and Portfolio EV shows the true (de-vigged) odds next to the offered price, so the gap Lindy finds manually is just sitting there for you. The Sharp Action and live in-game EV tools are the same ones he mentions leaning on during the show. Want just today's longballs? Our MLB home run picks page refreshes daily.
New to the mechanics behind any of this? The OddsShopper odds screen is where +EV and line shopping stop being theory and turn into a click.
FAQ
Who is Lindy and what is Leans, Likes and Locks? Lindy is Eric Lindquist, who hosts the MLB Leans, Likes and Locks show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel. He goes through every game on the slate, attaches a real price to each play, and grades everything against a break-even number.
What were Lindy's favorite plays on this card? His most confident prop was Jacob Misiorowski's strikeout over against the Braves, and his favorite home run was Cody Clemens at +600. Joe Adell at +375 and Jack Caglianone at +575 were his other home run shots, and he liked Roki Sasaki's over on starter outs.
Why does Lindy pass on so many games? Because a bet only exists when the price on the screen is longer than his break-even number. If the number is not in his favor, there is no edge to take, so he moves on. That discipline is the point of the show.
How do I find these price gaps myself? The OddsShopper odds screen and Portfolio EV tool do it automatically: the odds screen shops every book at once, and Portfolio EV shows the true odds next to the offered price so you can see where the value is.
Try the Tools Lindy Uses
Lindy's edge is not a hot streak, it is pricing every play against the real number and only firing when the gap is in his favor. OddsShopper is what does that for you: it scans 100+ sportsbooks and prediction markets, shows the de-vigged true odds next to the price, and flags the bets that are actually in your favor.
Try it free for 7 days, and code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month of OS Pro or OS Core. Start your free trial
