Live With Lindy MLB Picks & Research Recap (7/27)
Eric "Lindy" Lindquist only had an hour for Monday's Live With Lindy MLB picks show, and the shortened window distilled the whole philosophy into one sentence he kept circling: it is not about being right, it is about getting good prices. Every bet on this card was framed that way. The strikeout bets he fired have already been bet past his numbers. The game total he took has moved through his number. And midway through the stream, the board hung a price on a Pete Crow-Armstrong two-homer day so absurd that Lindy fired it live on air and watched the market slash it by a third before the show ended. More on that ticket in a minute, because it is the purest version of the day's lesson: bet the number, not the name.
One vocabulary note before the plays, because it changes how you tail this. A lean is a spot he likes but did not bet. An official play is one he actually fired. We never promote a lean to a bet that never got made.
Max Scherzer — one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
- The Strikeout Overs: Max Scherzer (TOR) over 4.5 strikeouts against Washington for a half unit, and Zack Wheeler (PHI) over 6.5 strikeouts in Miami, both bought early at plus money before the market sprinted past them. Slade Cecconi (CLE) under 4.5 strikeouts in Cincinnati, taken at plus money, now priced like a favorite.
- The Game Bet: Mariners-Rangers over 7.5 runs, taken on price ahead of the market move, in the one game where he refuses to bet home run power against Kumar Rocker (TEX).
- The Home Run Card: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) against Arizona's all-righty pitching plan, Tyler Stephenson (CIN) at a number that got hammered as soon as the show discussed it, and Curtis Mead (BOS) on his Red Sox debut in a hitter-friendly park.
- The Lottery Swing: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to homer twice in St. Louis, fired live because the price was a joke, not because two homers are likely.
- What The Tool Flagged Instead: OddsShopper's de-vigged +EV board put its best value on a cluster of hitless-under props, led by Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) at a fair +159 but takeable at +180.
Watch The Video
This is the stream where the Pete Crow-Armstrong two-homer ticket gets found, mocked, and fired in real time, and where Randy Arozarena, a righty, takes Kumar Rocker deep mid-show while Lindy cheers because runs are runs when you are on the over. The whole card gets audited live against where the market moved. Watch on YouTube.
The Texas Game: Where Power Goes To Die, And The Over Lives Anyway
Start in Arlington, because it explains how Lindy separates markets most bettors lump together. He will not touch right-handed home run props against Kumar Rocker (TEX): the tool showed Rocker allowing 0.6 home runs per nine to righties, one of the stingiest power profiles on Monday's board. But suppressing homers is not the same as suppressing production, so Julio Rodriguez (SEA) over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs went into his six-pick pick'em card anyway. Julio's expected numbers still run ahead of his results, and the H+R+RBI stat does not need the ball to leave the yard. That same logic carried into Mariners-Rangers over 7.5 runs, which he grabbed before the market pushed it higher, banking the closing line value that is his real scoreboard. A small Wyatt Langford (TEX) over 1.5 H+R+RBI slice rounded out the game.
The baseball gods have a sense of humor about hard rules: while the show was live, Randy Arozarena (SEA), a righty, took Rocker deep. Lindy laughed and cheered it anyway, because runs are runs when you are on the over.
The Strikeout Card, And Why Wheeler Is The CLV Poster Child
The Texas over was about beating the move, and the strikeout card is the same story told three times over. Scherzer over 4.5 strikeouts is the uncomfortable one: he is returning from a lengthy layoff into the platoon side where his strikeout stuff plays down. Lindy fired it anyway, for half a unit, because the market had priced Scherzer's strikeouts off a tiny, injury-tainted pitch sample and his number said the line was simply too low, even against a Washington order loaded with left-handed bats. When Brady House (WSH) sat, exactly as Lindy predicted on stream, the ceiling dropped a little more, and he was honest about it: this is a price bet, not a comfortable one.
Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts in Miami is what it looks like when the price bet wins before first pitch. Lindy got in at plus money; by showtime the market had bludgeoned the over to a heavy favorite's price. His only regret was sizing. And here is the tell that he means "the number, not the name": at Monday's moved price, he said he would lean the under on the same bet he is holding. The Cecconi under 4.5 strikeouts tells the same price story: grabbed at plus money, now sitting at a favorite's number. If you want the framework behind these markets, the MLB strikeout props guide is the 101 version.
Three Home Runs, Three Different Reasons
The homer card shows the same price discipline applied to lineups, news, and debuts. Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) was the last bet he placed Sunday night, and the read is pure roster mechanics: Arizona starts righty Merrill Kelly and, by Lindy's read, has no left-handed relievers available behind him, so Pittsburgh's lefty bats see right-handed pitching all night. O'Hearn is the one whose numbers cleared, and his home run price was the fat one. The same construction put Jacob Gonzalez (PIT) over 1.5 H+R+RBI on the pick'em card. Tyler Stephenson (CIN) is a model favorite Lindy almost never bets, but with Spencer Steer (CIN) sidelined, the price stayed fat, then got hammered the moment the show flagged it, and he noted a better number was still sitting at one book. Curtis Mead (BOS) is the fun one: a Red Sox debut in the Athletics' hitter-friendly ballpark, at what Lindy called simply a good number to get in on, with the hope Mead lands in the top half of the lineup. Full price-first framework for this market lives in the home run props guide.
What he would not touch matters just as much: Trea Turner (PHI) and Alec Bohm (PHI) homers in Miami, at any of the prices quoted to him. The Phillies travel from Citizens Bank Park, roughly a 115 park factor for right-handed home runs, to the worst righty power park in baseball. Same hitters, completely different bet.
The Two-Homer Ticket He Fired Live
Here is the payoff on that promise from the top. Mid-show, a Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) two-home-run price in St. Louis surfaced, and Lindy stopped everything. PCA is left-handed, leading off, facing a Cardinals lefty who gives up real power to left-handed bats, in what Lindy called the warmest game he can remember all season. Two homers from anyone is always unlikely, and he said so on air. But the number was priced like a coin that never lands, and his own math said the true odds were far shorter. He bet it live, and before the stream ended the board had cut the price by roughly a third. One honest caveat he volunteers himself: when a thin, obscure market moves right after you bet it, some of that is your own action, not the sharp world agreeing with you, so he does not count it the way he counts real closing line value in liquid markets. It was his twelfth two-homer play of the season: he has hit one, a Kyle Stowers ticket at a massive number earlier this year, and the ledger is still profitable, which is exactly how longshot value is supposed to work.
Market Craft: The Yankees First Five, And The Right Way To Build A Scherzer Runs Angle
The PCA ticket was about taking a mispriced market; this section is about choosing the right market in the first place. Lindy already has Yankees first-five moneyline against Chicago White Sox lefty Noah Schultz, and he doubled back for more of the same game, liking the first-five runline too. The first-five innings market isolates Max Fried (NYY) against Schultz and dodges both bullpens.
The teaching moment came on the Blue Jays-Nationals game, Scherzer's. If you want Scherzer to get his head kicked in, he argued, do not bet the over on his earned-runs prop. Route the same opinion through the Nationals' first-five team-total runs instead: it is cheaper vig, unearned runs count toward it, and if Scherzer exits early off the layoff, the reliever's inning still counts. Same opinion, better container. He tracked the number all weekend but kept it as a construction lesson rather than an official fire, so it stays a lean. That is the de-vig mindset applied to market selection instead of price.
Featured Fired Plays (7/27)
| Play | Market | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer (TOR) | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | Half unit; market priced Ks off a tiny post-layoff sample |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | Bought at plus money; market moved it to heavy chalk |
| Slade Cecconi (CLE) | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | Plus-money entry now priced like a favorite |
| Mariners-Rangers | Over 7.5 Runs | Price beat the move; CLV banked |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (Pick'em) | Rocker kills power, not production |
| Wyatt Langford (TEX) | Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (Pick'em) | Small slice on a wonky number |
| Jacob Gonzalez (PIT) | Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (Pick'em) | Sees righties all night vs Arizona's pen plan |
| Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) | To Hit A Home Run | Lefty bat, all-righty opposing staff, fat price |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | To Hit A Home Run | Model favorite; number stayed fat even after the Steer news |
| Curtis Mead (BOS) | To Hit A Home Run | Debut day in a hitter's park; the number was the draw |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | Two Home Runs | Comically mispriced longshot; board cut it a third live |
| Yankees | First-Five Moneyline | Isolates Fried vs Schultz for five innings |
The row to sit with is Wheeler's, because it is the whole show in one line: the bet is already won or lost on the number you got, not the strikeouts he throws tonight. Lindy is holding a price the market now calls wrong in his favor, and he still told viewers he would lean the other way at today's odds.
What The OddsShopper +EV Board Flagged
Lindy hunts low-hold markets on stream, and the +EV screen he works from had a clear theme Monday: hitless unders. The tool surfaces every market where the best available price beats the de-vigged fair number, and Monday's widest gaps clustered on quiet bats. Every edge below is the gap between the fair price after removing the vig and the best takeable number across books.
| Player | Market | Fair | Best takeable | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) | Under 0.5 Hits | +159 | +180 (Bet365) | +8.1% |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +166 | +182 (Bet365) | +6.0% |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | Under 0.5 Hits | +165 | +180 (Bet365) | +5.7% |
| Nasim Nuñez (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +104 | +115 (Bet365) | +5.4% |
| Henry Bolte (ATH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +115 | +125 (Bet365) | +4.7% |
| Daylen Lile (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +183 | +195 (Bet365) | +4.2% |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | Under 0.5 Hits | +141 | +150 (Fanatics) | +3.7% |
| Bo Bichette (NYM) | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -141 | -130 (Bet365) | +3.5% |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | Under 0.5 Hits | -118 | -110 (Fanatics) | +3.3% |
| Tyler Locklear (ARI) | Under 0.5 Hits | +123 | +130 (Bet365) | +3.1% |
| Mauricio Dubón (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +162 | +170 (Bet365) | +3.0% |
| José Altuve (HOU) | Under 0.5 Hits | +162 | +170 (Bet365) | +3.0% |
The row I keep coming back to is Ronald Acuña Jr. hitless at +182 against a fair +166. Nobody builds a bet slip around fading a superstar, which is exactly why the number drifts fat: the public bets the name, the board prices the probability, and the gap is the edge. It is also worth noticing that a third of this table lives in the Braves-Mets game Lindy spent the most off-card time on, the same slate his overnight card covers in Lindy's MLB picks for 7/27.
A Worked Example: What +8.1% Actually Means
Take the top row and do the math the +EV screen does automatically. The de-vigged fair price on a hitless Luis Robert Jr. night is +159, meaning a fair book would pay $159 profit on a $100 bet. Bet365 is paying +180, so the same $100 returns $180 profit on the same true probability, and that gap is the +8.1% edge in the table. You are not predicting an 0-fer any better than the market is; you are getting paid $21 more per $100 than the outcome is worth every time it hits. Stack enough of those overpays and the long run takes care of itself, which is the entire premise of Lindy's show.
Shopping a board like this only works if you can actually take the best number, which means holding more than one book. Bet365 owns ten of the twelve best prices here (the Bet365 bonus code guide covers getting started there), Fanatics holds two more, and if BetMGM is not in your rotation yet, check BetMGM's current offer and how to claim it before you leave a sign-up bonus on the table.
The Best Question Of The Show: A $1,000 Bonus Bet
A viewer asked how to spend a four-figure DraftKings bonus bet, and Lindy's answer doubles as a lesson. There are two honest paths: the by-the-book play, converting it on a long plus-money price to extract maximum expected value, or the I-would-like-the-cash play, structuring it across books so you come out ahead whichever side wins. Which one is right depends on how much the money means to you, and that is a bankroll question, not a math question. He even sketched a live example of the second path from yesterday's card: holding Kyle Freeland (COL) under 4.5 strikeouts while buying the over at 3.5 elsewhere, so a four-strikeout night lands in the middle and pays both tickets. Either way, run the numbers through the free bet converter instead of torching the credit on a chalk favorite, and the free bet conversion guide walks through both paths.
FAQ
What is Live With Lindy? It is Eric Lindquist's live MLB research show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel, and the format is the point: he places bets the night before, then audits them on stream against where the market moved, in public, wins and losses alike. Monday's shortened hour still produced a live fire, the Pete Crow-Armstrong two-homer ticket. Yesterday's edition, a don't-force-it Sunday with a very different card, is recapped in the 7/26 Live With Lindy recap.
Why bet Scherzer strikeouts against a lefty-stacked lineup? Because the bet is on the price, not the matchup. The market set Scherzer's strikeout line off a tiny sample from an injury-wrecked stretch, and Lindy's number said the line was too low even after accounting for the lefties. He sized it down to a half unit precisely because the matchup fights the price.
Are the hitless unders in the table Lindy's picks? No. They are what OddsShopper's de-vigged +EV board flagged as the widest fair-vs-takeable gaps on Monday's slate. They share his method, take the best price against the true probability, but the fired plays in the table above are the only bets from the show itself. His full card, sized and timestamped, is on Tails.
The Bottom Line
Monday's show was one hour of the same test applied to a dozen different markets: is the number in front of you better than the true odds? That is what made a half-unit Scherzer over defensible against a bad matchup, what made Wheeler a win before he threw a pitch, and what made a two-homer lottery ticket the sharpest bet of the stream. The prices in this recap are already stale, which is the point, so pull up the live MLB hits prop board, de-vig the number you actually want, and grade yourself on closing line value the way Lindy does.
Fifty percent off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code BABYLINDY50 gets you the same de-vigged board, +EV screen and line shopping tools Lindy runs on stream.
