MLB Home Run Picks Today: Best HR Bets for June 21, 2026
In Summary
- The market's likeliest home run hitter today is Yordan Alvarez at +220 (31.2% implied), the slate's shortest "to hit a home run" price. Likeliest to go deep is not the same as the best value, so treat the price as a starting point, not a green light.
- We sorted every hitter's home run prop across the 14-game board by the market's own price, then used OddsShopper odds comparison to find the sportsbook paying the most on each. Taking the best number is half the battle; confirming that price beats the true odds is the other half.
- The full board is in the table below. Run any name you like through Portfolio EV to see whether its best price is actually +EV before you bet.
Here are today's MLB home run props for June 21, 2026: the hitters the market likes most to go deep, and the best price on each across 100+ sportsbooks ("to hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market). None of these is a green light on its own. The value is in line shopping the number, then checking it against the true odds. Start on the OddsShopper home run board.
Today's Top Home Run Pick: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez is in against Slade Cecconi at Daikin Park and carries the shortest home run price on the whole slate at +220 (31.2% implied). That means the market rates him the likeliest to go yard, not that the bet is automatically +EV. The best number sits at BetMGM across the 31 books pricing it, and on a payout market like home runs, line shopping for that best price instead of an average one is real money over a season. Whether +220 actually beats the true odds is what Portfolio EV is for.
The Home Run Board, Ranked by Price
| Player | Matchup | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied |
|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | vs Slade Cecconi | +220 | BetMGM | 31.2% |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | vs Brandon Young | +220 | Circa | 31.2% |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | vs Jose Cabrera | +300 | PointsBet | 25.0% |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | vs David Peterson | +300 | Unibet | 25.0% |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | vs Chase Burns | +311 | Betcris | 24.3% |
| James Wood (WSH) | vs Nick Martinez | +313 | Kalshi | 24.2% |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | vs Emmet Sheehan | +328 | Betcris | 23.4% |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | vs Keider Montero | +330 | PointsBet | 23.3% |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | vs Michael Lorenzen | +330 | Unibet | 23.3% |
| Nick Kurtz (ATH) | vs Reid Detmers | +340 | Circa | 22.7% |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | vs Brandon Young | +350 | Bet365 | 22.2% |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | vs Zack Wheeler | +350 | Bet365 | 22.2% |
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | vs Elmer Rodríguez | +357 | Pinnacle | 21.9% |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | vs Slade Cecconi | +375 | PointsBet | 21.1% |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | vs Payton Tolle | +390 | Unibet | 20.4% |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | vs Chase Burns | +398 | Kalshi | 20.1% |
The Matchups Behind the Board
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at +220
At +220 (31.2% implied), Shohei Ohtani is Circa's best home run number on the board, in against Brandon Young at Dodger Stadium.
Byron Buxton (MIN) at +300
Jose Cabrera draws Byron Buxton at Chase Field, a matchup the market prices at +300 (25.0% implied). PointsBet posts the top number.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) at +300
Kyle Schwarber's home run prop sits at +300 (25.0% implied) versus David Peterson. Unibet has the best price.
Ben Rice (NYY) at +311
The board gives Ben Rice a 24.3% implied shot to homer against Chase Burns, or +311 at the best price (Betcris, of 31 books).
James Wood (WSH) at +313
Facing Nick Martinez at Tropicana Field, James Wood comes in at +313 (24.2% implied). Kalshi leads the market.
Want the best price on every home run prop? OddsShopper scans 100+ sportsbooks in real time, flags the best number on each play (and where it is actually +EV), and does by the second what this article did by hand. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MVPRO on Tails (1222-1166 graded record) likes Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+458).
- MVPRO on Tails (1222-1166 graded record) likes Austin Riley Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+563).
- MVPRO on Tails (1222-1166 graded record) likes Ben Rice Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+312).
- JediModi on Tails (553-1213 graded record) likes Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+375).
- MVPRO on Tails (1222-1166 graded record) likes Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+369).
- Rounding Third on Tails likes Jonathan Deluca Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+882).
- BGrebbs on Tails (985-1203 graded record) likes James Wood Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+396).
- JediModi on Tails (553-1213 graded record) likes James Wood Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+360).
More from these experts on today's slate. BGrebbs, JediModi, MVPRO, Rounding Third post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one sportsbook than another. Take the best number every time on the live home run board.
- Confirm it is +EV, do not just back the favorite. The shortest price is the market's favorite, not a guaranteed edge; a longer-priced bat the market is sleeping on can be the better value. Check the best price against the true odds before you fire.
- Size for variance. Home run props are longshots by design, so keep stakes small and play the long run.
Game-by-Game Home Run Picks
Want every hitter for a single matchup? Our per-game home run breakdowns list the full board for each game:
FAQ
Who is the best home run pick today? Yordan Alvarez has the slate's shortest price at +220 (BetMGM), so the market rates him the likeliest to homer. The table ranks the rest by price; line shop and confirm the number is +EV before betting.
Who has the best home run odds? It varies by player. OddsShopper's odds comparison checks 100+ sportsbooks so you always take the best available number on each prop.
What does “to hit a home run” mean? It is the over 0.5 home runs prop: the player hits at least one home run in the game. Prices and the best book differ by sportsbook, so compare before betting.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly; shop live prices on OddsShopper. Matchups via the MLB schedule. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
