This is the graded Week 3 edition. Falcons at Packers settled 35-14 Atlanta on Thursday, September 24. The Week 5 edition, Buccaneers at Cowboys on Thursday, October 8, lands Wednesday. Atlanta's passing game is being priced like last year's, and the six AI models that priced it Tuesday morning without seeing a number are not buying it. Drake London caught five or more passes in seven of his twelve games last season, and the contract that pays if he does it at Lambeau trades at 61.5¢, a price built on that history. The models read this season instead, two catches at Pittsburgh and four against Carolina, and put the same contract at 48%, the widest gap on the 16 busiest Falcons at Packers contracts. They sit under the market on 12 of the 16, and the pattern is the same each time: the price remembers 2025, the models are pricing 2026.
Kalshi prices are the bid-ask midpoint at 7:44 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2026; the panel priced every contract Tuesday morning without seeing a price, and its numbers do not move. Kickoff Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. These are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
London Is Overpriced
London's five-catch line is a coin flip with a lean in Kalshi's price and a coin flip with the opposite lean in the panel's, and the difference is what each side is looking at. Last season London cleared five catches in seven of twelve games; that history says 58%, close to the market's 61.5. This season he has two catches at Pittsburgh and four against Carolina, and the six models, which read both, landed between 46 and 50. A receiver averaging three catches through two games is not a 61-cent bet to catch five on a short week, whatever last year's number was.
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The same reasoning runs through the other Atlanta rows: London's 60-yard receiving line trades at 53.5¢ against a panel at 46.5. The market has priced the Falcons' passing game as last year's; the models have priced it as this year's.
Green Bay Assumes A Workload
On the Green Bay side the market is paying for MarShawn Lloyd. He has no 2025 game log, so the models went on his two games: 37 rushing yards at Minnesota, 20 at the Jets. Thirty or more on Thursday trades at 47.5 cents against a panel at 36.5, and the table has the rest. A back who has cleared 30 yards once in two games is being priced as if he does it every other week.
Jordan Love at 200 or more passing yards is the other Packers row. It trades at 65.5 cents against a panel at 55.5. Love cleared 200 in 8 of 15 games last season, and his two games this year are 387 yards and 145. The market is closer to the 387; the panel is closer to last season.
The panel sits above the market on three rows, all first-touchdown prices, and the biggest is Christian Watson: 9.5 cents on Kalshi, 13% from the models. Small numbers, but the one place on the board where the six models pay more than the market.
The Board: Twelve Of Sixteen Under The Market
The 16 busiest contracts on the Falcons at Packers board on Tuesday morning. Gap is the panel minus Kalshi; Models is the range across the six models.
| Contract | Kalshi | Panel | Gap | Models |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft first TD (GBT) | 8.5¢ | 8% | -0.5 | 7–9 |
| Drake London 60+ receiving yards (ATL) | 53.5¢ | 46.5% | -7.0 | 44–50 |
| Jordan Love 200+ passing yards (GBJ) | 65.5¢ | 55.5% | -10.0 | 52–57 |
| Tucker Kraft 40+ receiving yards (GBT) | 57.0¢ | 52% | -5.0 | 50–58 |
| Drake London 5+ receptions (ATL) | 61.5¢ | 48% | -13.5 | 46–50 |
| MarShawn Lloyd 20+ rushing yards (GBM) | 66.0¢ | 57.5% | -8.5 | 56–60 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. first TD (ATL) | 3.5¢ | 4% | +0.5 | 3–5 |
| Drake London first TD (ATL) | 6.5¢ | 7.5% | +1.0 | 7–8 |
| Bijan Robinson first TD (ATL) | 15.5¢ | 11% | -4.5 | 10–11 |
| Christian Watson first TD (GBC) | 9.5¢ | 13% | +3.5 | 12–14 |
| Drake London 100+ receiving yards (ATL) | 19.0¢ | 18% | -1.0 | 15–23 |
| Matthew Golden first TD (GBM) | 7.5¢ | 7% | -0.5 | 6–8 |
| MarShawn Lloyd 30+ rushing yards (GBM) | 47.5¢ | 36.5% | -11.0 | 34–42 |
| Drake London 80+ receiving yards (ATL) | 33.5¢ | 29.5% | -4.0 | 27–35 |
| MarShawn Lloyd 15+ rushing yards (GBM) | 75.0¢ | 71% | -4.0 | 70–73 |
| Jordan Love first TD (GBJ) | 2.5¢ | 2.5% | +0.0 | 2–4 |
Week 2, Graded
Sam LaPorta scored on Thursday night and the row the models staked Week 2 on paid: 24.5 cents on Tuesday, 35.5% from the panel. Across the 16-row Lions at Bills board the panel was closer than the market on 9 rows, the market on 6, with one even; 5 of the 16 contracts paid. Week 1's board, priced August 20, went the other way, with the market closer on 12 of 16. Two weeks in, the market has been closer on 18 rows and the panel on 13, with one even.
My Take
Buy No on Drake London 5+ receptions, about 38.5 cents, is the bet this page stakes Week 3 on. The market is at 61.5 for five catches from a receiver who has six in two games; the panel is at 48, and I lean the panel's way. No on MarShawn Lloyd 30+ rushing yards, about 52.5 cents, is the second, for the same reason: the price assumes a workload two games have not shown. The Love passing line is a pass at 10 points of gap, because 200 yards is one good half for him.
This page grades Thursday night after the final whistle. The spread version of the panel's Week 3 work is on AI NFL Week 3 picks, and the game-winner board is on AI NFL Week 3 predictions.
More on this: AI NFL Predictions Week 3: all 16 game lines · NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards · How To Bet NFL On Kalshi · Kalshi NFL Week 1 Board: Every Game's Price
