Kalshi has 325 player contracts open on the first week of the NFL season, and 119,019 contracts have already changed hands across them. The exchange has opened player props on exactly two of Week 1's sixteen games, the two that kick off first. The busiest single contract on the whole board is a rookie running back who has never taken an NFL snap scoring two touchdowns on Wednesday night.
That shape holds across the entire menu, and it was the first thing nine AI models ran into when we handed them every one of these lines with the prices stripped out. On the contracts the money is actually chasing, the machines and the market mostly agree. The place they disagree hardest is well down the volume list, and it belongs to the quarterback at the top of this page.
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Kalshi Has Opened Player Props On Only Two Week 1 Games
Week 1 of the 2026 season runs sixteen games from Wednesday, September 9 through Monday, September 14. As of September 2, Kalshi's player menu covers two of them: New England at Seattle, Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET at Lumen Field, and San Francisco against the LA Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET. Every other Week 1 game has a winner market and a spread, and no player markets at all.
Six player families are live on those two games: touchdowns scored, passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards and receptions. Fifteen other Kalshi player series returned zero open events when we probed every one of them today, including the weekly most-passing-yards, first-touchdown and rushing-attempts series. Those are real markets that have traded before. They simply have no Week 1 event listed yet.
The reason is timing rather than appetite. Prop menus on an exchange fill up close to kickoff, when lineups firm up and market makers are willing to quote a hundred small markets per game instead of five. A player board built a week out is a board for the games that start soonest. If you are reading this closer to Sunday, expect menus on the other fourteen games that did not exist when these numbers were fetched.
Every contract here is a CFTC-regulated event contract, open to U.S. adults 18+ in the states where Kalshi operates, and each one settles at $1 or $0 against the official stat line. Fees apply, and on a market quoted at 3 cents the fee is a real share of the ticket.
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How Nine Models Priced 68 Contracts Without Seeing A Price
We took the 49 player-stat ladders Kalshi has open, ranked them by contracts traded, and handed the top sixteen to a panel of nine AI models. A ladder is one player and one stat: Drake Maye's passing yards is nine separate contracts, from 150+ up to 350+, and each rung settles YES if he reaches at least that number.
Every model got one call covering all sixteen ladders and 68 contracts at once, with a hard instruction to price each ladder from a single view of that player's night rather than rung by rung. Ask a model about 300+ passing yards on its own and it will hand you a number that contradicts the one it just gave for 275+. Our parser rejects any board where a probability rises as the threshold rises, and re-asks.
What the models saw was a fetched data card rather than their own memory: every player's 2025 game log converted into an empirical rate at every rung Kalshi lists, each player's 2026 team checked against the live roster feed, both teams' 2025 season totals, today's injury report, and six dated news items that postdate all of it. What they did not see was a single market price, spread or implied probability.
After that blind round, each model read the other eight boards anonymously and could revise once. All nine seats returned a board in both rounds, and all nine revised something in the second. The numbers below are the revised round, and the blind first round is stored either way.
All 68 calls went into our public grading ledger the moment they were made. When these games settle on September 9 and 10, every seat's Week 1 record posts to the full graded scoreboard, which already carries thousands of settled calls. That ledger is also the reason to read the gaps below carefully rather than eagerly: across it, when the panel and the market have disagreed by ten cents or more, the market has been right roughly two thirds of the time.
The Board: Kalshi's 16 Busiest Week 1 Player Contracts
Prices are the midpoint between the best bid and the best offer on Kalshi, as of September 2, 2026. The Book column carries those two quotes, and it matters as much as the midpoint: a contract quoted 5 to 6 cents has a real price, while one quoted 7 to 21 cents has a nearly empty order book, where the midpoint is closer to a guess. The Panel column is the blend of all nine seats, taken as the median of their probabilities rather than the average, because one outlying seat should not drag the number.
| Contract | Kalshi | Book (bid-ask) | Panel | Gap | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price 2+ TDs (SEA) | 9.5¢ | 9-10¢ | 8.0% | -1.5 | 6,536 |
| AJ Barner 2+ TDs (SEA) | 3.5¢ | 2-5¢ | 5.0% | +1.5 | 5,994 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ TDs (SEA) | 6.5¢ | 5-8¢ | 10.0% | +3.5 | 4,979 |
| A.J. Brown 2+ TDs (NE) | 5.5¢ | 5-6¢ | 9.0% | +3.5 | 4,297 |
| AJ Barner 1+ TDs (SEA) | 14.0¢ | 7-21¢ | 32.0% | +18.0 | 4,287 |
| Drake Maye 2+ TDs (NE) | 2.0¢ | 1-3¢ | 4.0% | +2.0 | 4,120 |
| Puka Nacua 2+ TDs (LAR) | 8.5¢ | 7-10¢ | 6.0% | -2.5 | 3,648 |
| Davante Adams 2+ TDs (LAR) | 5.5¢ | 2-9¢ | 18.0% | +12.5 | 3,464 |
| Brock Purdy 4+ passing TDs (SF) | 4.5¢ | 1-8¢ | 10.0% | +5.5 | 3,408 |
| Brock Purdy 3+ passing TDs (SF) | 21.5¢ | 21-22¢ | 29.0% | +7.5 | 3,283 |
| Drake Maye 60+ rushing yards (NE) | 5.5¢ | 2-9¢ | 6.0% | +0.5 | 3,113 |
| Sam Darnold 4+ passing TDs (SEA) | 4.0¢ | 1-7¢ | 8.0% | +4.0 | 2,992 |
| Drake Maye 25+ rushing yards (NE) | 50.5¢ | 49-52¢ | 48.0% | -2.5 | 2,709 |
| Drake Maye 300+ passing yards (NE) | 10.5¢ | 6-15¢ | 20.0% | +9.5 | 2,671 |
| Brock Purdy 2+ TDs (SF) | 1.5¢ | 1-2¢ | 3.0% | +1.5 | 2,280 |
| Mike Evans 2+ TDs (SF) | 5.5¢ | 4-7¢ | 4.0% | -1.5 | 2,149 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 87% on 1,454 graded calls · Claude Opus 87% on 1,526 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 85% on 1,502 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 6,384 graded calls · Grok 84% on 5,370 graded calls · GLM 82% on 2,900 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 3,072 graded calls · DeepSeek 81% on 2,944 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
The records above cover eight of the nine seats. The ChatGPT seat has no graded record on the public scoreboard yet, so no number is invented for it; its calls on this board are its first entries.
These numbers are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Event contracts involve risk, and you can lose money trading them.
More live boards from the same panel: AI NFL predictions for all 16 Week 1 games (Seattle 62¢ over New England) · Drake Maye's MVP market (Maye 7¢) · Kalshi's Week 1 game board (Rams 65¢ over San Francisco). Prices fetched September 2, 2026.
One Pattern: Almost All The Money Is On Cheap Tickets
The volume data says something before any model opens its mouth. Of the sixteen busiest player contracts on the board, 14 are priced under 15 cents, and the median price among them is 5.5 cents. Across all 325 open player contracts, the 90 priced under a dime account for 54.7% of every contract traded, though only 19.5% of the dollars committed, because a cheap ticket costs little. The 30 priced above 65 cents are the mirror image: 1.2% of the contracts and 5.9% of the dollars.
The touchdown ladders make it starkest. Each one offers two rungs, one touchdown or two. The 1+ rungs, the ones a starting skill player clears in roughly a third to a half of his games, have traded 14,926 contracts. The 2+ rungs, priced between 1.5 and 17 cents, have traded 45,858. That is 3.1 times as much volume on the harder outcome, and in 14 of the 17 touchdown ladders open on these two games the expensive-to-hit rung outtraded the easy one.
That describes the customer a player board attracts on an exchange: someone buying a cheap ticket with a big payoff rather than someone grinding a coin flip. It is worth naming the cost plainly. A contract bought at 3 cents has to come in far more often than it feels like it should to be worth 3 cents, and Kalshi's taker fee, which rounds up 0.07 x C x P x (1-P) per order, takes about 6.8% of a 3-cent stake against about 3.5% of a 50-cent one, so the cheap end of the board is the expensive end per dollar committed (the full fee math is here).
What the pattern does not tell you is that those cheap contracts are wrong. Volume describes demand, not accuracy. Sorting that out is what the panel was for.
Where The Market And The Panel Actually Disagree
On the busiest lines the two mostly land together. Six of the sixteen board rows sit within two points, including the single most-traded contract on the whole board: Jadarian Price to score twice, 9.5¢ against the panel's 8.0%.
The disagreements fall into three recognisable shapes.
A season the ledger can see. Davante Adams caught 14 touchdowns in 14 games for the Rams in 2025. Kalshi prices him at 5.5¢ to score twice against San Francisco, and the panel puts it at 18.0%. Brock Purdy threw three or more touchdowns in four of the nine games he played in 2025, and his 3+ contract is quoted 21 to 22 cents, one of the tightest books on the board, against a panel read of 29.0%. That row has no order-book excuse on either side, which makes it the cleanest disagreement here.
A book too thin to have a price. AJ Barner to score once shows a +18.0-point gap, which looks like the story of the board until you read the quotes. Buyers are bidding 7 cents and sellers are asking 21, so anywhere inside that 14-cent canyon could be called the price. The panel's 32.0% sits above even the asking side, so the two really do disagree, but with a book that wide the size of the gap is unmeasurable. Read that row as a market without a price rather than a mispriced one. A.J. Brown's 70-yard receiving contract has the same problem, quoted 16 to 43.
A contract that is not really about football. Puka Nacua's touchdown market is quoted 42.0¢ for 1+, the panel reads 31.0%, and almost all of that distance is availability rather than ability. The Rams' own injury log listed him as a non-participant with a psoas injury on August 24. Separately, a Los Angeles woman filed a civil suit in March 2026 alleging Nacua "forcibly" bit her shoulder and made an "unprovoked antisemitic statement"; the civil trial is set for March 27, 2028, his attorney has called the claims false and described the contact as harmless "horseplay," and the NFL's review of the matter was still open on September 1, with ESPN's Adam Schefter reporting that the league could suspend him for the opener. Nacua was not placed on the commissioner's exempt list. Every seat priced that doubt explicitly rather than around it:
If he were locked in to play I would price 1+ near 0.50 ... so the 0.30 I post is that number halved by the doubt. — Claude Opus
Here is every seat's number on the lines worth arguing about.
| Line | Kalshi | ChatGPT | Claude Fable | Claude Sonnet | Gemini | Claude Opus | Grok | Kimi | DeepSeek | GLM | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye 250+ passing yards | 33.0¢ | 60% | 55% | 63% | 58% | 52% | 66% | 60% | 65% | 62% | 60.0% |
| Davante Adams 2+ TDs | 5.5¢ | 16% | 15% | 20% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 18.0% |
| Brock Purdy 3+ passing TDs | 21.5¢ | 29% | 26% | 35% | 28% | 28% | 31% | 34% | 40% | 25% | 29.0% |
| AJ Barner 1+ TD | 14.0¢ | 23% | 32% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 33% | 32% | 32% | 30% | 32.0% |
| Puka Nacua 1+ TD | 42.0¢ | 31% | 31% | 33% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 33% | 33% | 30% | 31.0% |
| Jadarian Price 2+ TDs | 9.5¢ | 10% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 15% | 8% | 8.0% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ TDs | 6.5¢ | 8% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 10.0% |
Model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Where The Panel Moved, And What Would Move It Again
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
All nine seats revised after reading the others. The most useful revisions were the ones where a model went back to the fetched card and found something it had misread the first time.
I had trimmed him because the card names Emanuel Wilson as the power complement ... re-reading the injury feed settles it — Wilson is Questionable with a hamstring, so the very body I used to shave Price's goal-line share is himself in doubt. — Claude Opus, raising Jadarian Price's touchdown number after round one
All eight peers independently landed in the 80-90% band for 25+, converging on the same argument I'd underweighted: an 'all three downs' lead back on a 123 rush-yd/game team, with Charbonnet gone for a minimum of four games and no other back named for standard downs, should clear 25 yards on volume alone almost regardless of efficiency. — Claude Sonnet, moving Price's 25+ rushing contract from 68% to 80%
Not every revision went up. Kimi cut its Davante Adams numbers on a regression argument nobody else had made: "14 TDs on 114 targets is a 12% TD-per-target rate that historically cannot hold, and at 33 some decay is the base case; my Poisson(1.0) conversion assumed zero regression." And GLM held its ground where the panel leaned on it:
I deliberately did NOT move Jadarian Price's rushing ladder: Forecaster H's 68% at 25+ is the outlier, and the role clarity (Macdonald saying 'all three downs') supports my 80%, but Holani and Wilson have named complementary roles that cap the ceiling. — GLM
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
These are the checkable events between now and kickoff that would move specific numbers, with the direction stated in advance.
- Seattle's Friday injury report settles its backfield. If Emanuel Wilson (hamstring) is out and Price has the goal line to himself, his 9.5¢ two-touchdown contract firms up. If George Holani takes the third-down and short-yardage work as coached, it drifts down.
- The NFL announces or declines discipline for Puka Nacua. A cleared Nacua sends his touchdown ladder up by the size of the haircut every seat applied, and the seats put their odds of him playing between 55% and 65%. A suspension sends it to zero and moves Davante Adams and Tutu Atwell up.
- Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are listed as full participants for Melbourne. Both are Questionable today. Full participation lowers the panel's Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel touchdown numbers, because the same red-zone targets get shared more ways.
- TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is ruled out for New England. Drake Maye's goal-line exposure rises, and so does the passing volume that drives every Maye rung below.
Settlement Timeline
| Date | What settles or lands |
|---|---|
| Wed Sep 9 | New England at Seattle kicks at 8:20 PM ET. Yardage and passing contracts settle around 11:20 PM ET, touchdown contracts around 2:20 AM ET |
| Thu Sep 10 | San Francisco vs LA Rams in Melbourne kicks at 8:35 PM ET, and all contracts settle around 11:35 PM ET |
| Fri Sep 11 to Sat Sep 12 | Final injury reports for the fourteen Sunday games, and the player menus for those games open |
| Sun Sep 13 to Mon Sep 14 | The rest of Week 1, and every call on this page posts to the graded scoreboard |
Prices on this page carry their September 2 timestamp, and the board is re-scored on this same URL when the story moves: a ruling on Nacua, a Friday injury report, or the moment Kalshi opens the other fourteen games.
The Biggest Argument On The Board Is About 250 Yards
Which brings us back to the quarterback. The widest disagreement on this whole board is not on any of the sixteen contracts the money is chasing. It sits one rung down the passing-yards ladder, on a market with a real order book and about a third of the volume of the busiest longshot on the board.
| Passing yards | Kalshi | Panel | Gap | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150+ | 84.5¢ | 97.0% | +12.5 | 158 |
| 175+ | 79.0¢ | 92.0% | +13.0 | 80 |
| 200+ | 64.5¢ | 85.0% | +20.5 | 35 |
| 225+ | 53.0¢ | 73.0% | +20.0 | 112 |
| 250+ | 33.0¢ | 60.0% | +27.0 | 2,059 |
| 275+ | 18.5¢ | 38.0% | +19.5 | 1,971 |
| 300+ | 10.5¢ | 20.0% | +9.5 | 2,671 |
| 325+ | 8.5¢ | 10.0% | +1.5 | 893 |
| 350+ | 6.0¢ | 5.0% | -1.0 | 1,313 |
Kalshi prices Drake Maye for 250+ passing yards at 33.0¢, quoted 30 to 36. The panel reads it at 60.0%, a +27.0-point gap and the biggest number on the page. Maye threw for 250 or more in 12 of his 17 games in 2025, a 71% rate, and his season was almost eerily consistent: thirteen of those seventeen games landed between 220 and 295 yards, and he never once finished below 155.
The panel's case is that consistency plus reinforcement. New England added A.J. Brown, whose Philadelphia log shows a receiver who cleared 70 yards in seven of fifteen games, and Maye's own volume was already there. Notice what the panel does with the top of the same ladder: it prices 300+ at 20.0% against a raw base rate of 6%, arguing that one 300-yard game in seventeen, inside a distribution centred near 258, is a small-sample artifact rather than a ceiling.
His 2025 log is freakishly compressed (12 of 17 games between 220 and 295), so the empirical rates fall off a cliff between 275+ (35%) and 300+ (6%). That cliff is a sample artifact, not a distribution. — Claude Fable
[Editor's note: our fetched game log has 13 of those 17 games inside the 220-295 band, not 12. The seat's argument is quoted as it was made.]
The market's case is everything a 2025 log cannot contain. Maye is on the road on opening night, against a Seattle defense that produced 47 sacks and 18 interceptions last season, throwing to a receiver he has never played a regular-season snap with. New England also runs the ball: the Patriots gained 128.9 rushing yards a game in 2025 and scored 22 rushing touchdowns, and a game script that goes their way is one that takes the ball out of Maye's hands in the fourth quarter. The 6-cent spread on that contract is itself a signal that neither side is certain.
Both readings are honest, and only one of them settles on Wednesday night. The panel's number and the market's number both go on the scoreboard afterwards, either way. Hold onto the record rather than the gap: disagreements this size have gone the market's way about two thirds of the time in our ledger, which is exactly why we publish the panel's calls before the games instead of after.
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Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
The Bottom Line
Two games, 325 contracts, and a crowd that has put 55% of the tickets it bought into markets priced under a dime. That is the honest picture of an NFL player board on a prediction market a week before kickoff: a thin, lottery-shaped menu that will look completely different by Sunday, when the other fourteen games open and the quiet coin-flip markets fill up.
On the rows that matter most to that crowd, nine models working from a fetched fact card and no prices at all landed close to the money, which says the cheap end of this board is priced by people who have thought about it. The rows where they part ways are the ones where a stat ledger and a live order book are describing different things: a receiver who scored 14 times in 14 games, a quarterback whose 2025 was almost too consistent to believe, and a receiver whose Week 1 turns on a league review rather than a coverage. Wednesday night grades all of it in public. To be explicit once more, everything here is a set of model estimates, graded in the open, and not financial advice about a football game.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
