Kalshi NFL Week 1: Odds, Markets And Predictions For Opening Week

Kalshi NFL Week 1 odds are already live. The 2026 season opens on Wednesday, September 9, and the exchange is not waiting for it. All 16 Week 1 games are already listed and trading on the exchange, with two-sided quotes on every matchup and more than 360,000 contracts traded across the opening slate as of August 1. That makes this the first NFL opening week you can price, trade, and exit on a CFTC-regulated exchange a full five weeks before a single snap. Here is the entire Week 1 board, the games that matter most, and what the prices are already saying.

The Quick Answer

Kalshi's Week 1 NFL markets are live now, not "coming soon." The exchange prices the Wednesday night opener, a Super Bowl LX rematch, at Seattle 65.5 cents over New England, makes the Rams 64.5-cent favorites over the 49ers in the first regular-season game ever played in Australia, and refuses to pick a side in two dead-even coin flips: Packers-Vikings and Bills-Texans, all quoted within two cents of 50. The full 16-game price board, the win-total and Super Bowl context for the opener's teams, and how these contracts settle are all below.

The Market At A Glance

Venue	Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of August 2026)
The Markets	16 Week 1 game events in the KXNFLGAME series, one yes/no contract per team, September 9-14, 2026
The Contract	Per the fetched rules: "If Seattle wins the New England vs Seattle professional football game originally scheduled for Sep 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes"
Settlement	Each market settles when its game goes final; listed expirations run within hours of each final whistle
Prices Below As Of	August 1, 2026, 12:01 UTC (live order-book midpoints)

These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state to participate.

Every Week 1 Game On Kalshi

Prices are the midpoint of each favorite's live bid and ask, in cents; a cent is roughly a percentage point of win probability. The road team is listed first in every matchup, the way Kalshi titles them.

Date	Matchup	Favorite	Price	Underdog	Price
Wed, Sep 9	New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks	65.5¢	Patriots	35.5¢
Thu, Sep 10	San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (Melbourne)	Rams	64.5¢	49ers	36.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles	66¢	Commanders	33¢
Sun, Sep 13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals	64¢	Buccaneers	35.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	New York Jets at Tennessee Titans	Titans	56¢	Jets	44.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions	Lions	75¢	Saints	25¢
Sun, Sep 13	Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars	Jaguars	77.5¢	Browns	23¢
Sun, Sep 13	Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers	Bears	57.5¢	Panthers	42.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans	Texans	50.5¢	Bills	49.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts	Ravens	63.5¢	Colts	35.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers	59¢	Falcons	41¢
Sun, Sep 13	Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings	Vikings	51.5¢	Packers	49.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders	Raiders	64.5¢	Dolphins	35.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers	Chargers	81.5¢	Cardinals	19.5¢
Sun, Sep 13	Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants	Cowboys	58¢	Giants	43¢
Mon, Sep 14	Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs	Chiefs	58¢	Broncos	43.5¢

These are market prices, not our numbers, and they are not financial advice. Half-cent prices are real: each is the midpoint of a bid and an ask one cent apart. Because each side trades in its own order book with a bid-ask spread, a game's two prices can sum to slightly more or less than 100. Our AI panel has not scored the Week 1 slate yet; that scoring lands on this page as kickoff approaches, and the method it will use is the same price-blind protocol behind the full 2026 win-totals board published today.

A few prices worth staring at before the stories. The Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week at 81.5 cents over Arizona. Two road favorites carry stories: Baltimore, 8-9 a year ago and under a first-year head coach after John Harbaugh's 18-season run ended, is 63.5 cents in Indianapolis, and Chicago, the NFC's 2 seed at 11-6, is 57.5 in Carolina, which won the NFC South at 8-9. And on Monday night the market prices Kansas City, coming off a 6-11 season, at 58 cents at home over a Denver team that just went 14-3 and held the AFC's top seed. That single number says the crowd expects the AFC West to look very different than it did in January.

Patriots At Seahawks: The Opener Is A Super Bowl Rematch

The season starts on a Wednesday night, and it starts with the two teams that just played for the title. New England at Seattle on September 9 is a rematch of Super Bowl LX, which the Seahawks won 29-13 at Levi's Stadium in February behind a defense that led 12-0 through three quarters and never let the game get close. Both teams finished the 2025 regular season 14-3; Seattle outscored opponents by 191 points, the best differential in football.

Kalshi's market makes the champions clear home favorites at 65.5 cents, with New England at 35.5. This is also, by a wide margin, the most liquid game on the board: roughly 100,000 contracts have already traded across the two sides, about double the next-busiest game. If you want to see how an NFL market behaves on the exchange before risking anything, watch this order book through late August.

49ers At Rams In Melbourne: The First NFL Game In Australia

One night later the league plays its first regular-season game in Australia: San Francisco at the Los Angeles Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, a September 10 kickoff in US time zones and September 11 local. It headlines a record nine international games this season, and it is a real game between real contenders, not an exhibition: both teams went 12-5 last season, both made the playoffs out of the same division as 14-3 Seattle, and the Rams' plus-172 point differential trailed only the Seahawks' league best.

The market opens the Rams at 64.5 cents, San Francisco at 36.5. Two things make that price interesting. Both teams travel the same absurd distance, so the usual home-field logic gets fuzzy. And the Rams enter the season as the exchange's Super Bowl LXI favorite at 15.5 cents on the KXSB-27 champion board, so a 65-cent Week 1 price is partly the crowd's belief about this game and partly its belief about the team's whole season.

The Two Coin Flips On The Board

Fourteen of the sixteen games have a favorite priced 56 cents or higher. Two do not, and they are the most honest prices of the week.

Packers At Vikings

Minnesota 51.5, Green Bay 49.5. These NFC North rivals finished half a game apart in 2025 (Green Bay 9-7-1, Minnesota 9-8), both behind 11-6 division champion Chicago, and the Vikings made the offseason's loudest quarterback move by adding Kyler Murray from Arizona in free agency. Divisional openers between evenly matched rosters are exactly the games where an exchange price sitting a cent or two off 50 tells you the crowd knows what it does not know.

Bills At Texans

Houston 50.5, Buffalo 49.5. Both teams went 12-5 a season ago, both made the playoffs, and Buffalo spent the offseason changing more: a new head coach in Joe Brady, promoted from offensive coordinator after Sean McDermott's nine-year run ended, and a trade that brought D.J. Moore in from Chicago for a second-round pick. The market's answer to all of it is a shrug at 50. If you have a real opinion on either side, this is the rung of the board where an opinion is worth the most.

What You Can Price Beyond The Moneylines

Week 1 moneylines are only the newest layer of NFL markets on the exchange. For the opener's two teams, the season-long ladders have been trading for weeks, and they give the Wednesday game its context:

• Seattle Seahawks: the win-total ladder crosses 50 cents at the 11-plus rung (51.5¢), an implied market line of about 11.5 wins, and the champions sit at 7.5 cents to repeat on the Super Bowl board.
• New England Patriots: the ladder crosses at 10-plus (55¢), an implied line of about 10.5, with the Patriots at 4.5 cents to win Super Bowl LXI.

Our eight-model AI panel scored every team's expected wins for the 2026 win-totals board published alongside this page, and the opener's two teams got opposite grades: the panel lands almost exactly on the market for Seattle (an 11.6-win blend against the 11.5 line) but makes New England the biggest over on its entire board, at 11.8 expected wins against the market's 10.5. The crowd's 35.5-cent price on the Patriots in this game and its 10.5-win season line are the same skepticism expressed twice; the panel disputes the season version of it. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.

How The Books Fill In Before Kickoff

A fair question about any market five weeks out: is there enough money in it to trade? The pattern from college football, which starts a week and a half earlier, says liquidity arrives well before the games do. Kalshi's August 29 college slate is already deep: the USC-San Jose State game alone has traded over 200,000 contracts with USC quoted at 98.5 cents, TCU sits at 70 cents against North Carolina, and Virginia trades at 64.5 against NC State. Week 1 NFL books are following the same curve from a bigger base, with about 364,000 contracts traded across the slate as of August 1 and the opener's book already deep enough to fill ordinary orders without moving the price.

Expect the thinner Sunday games (Washington-Philadelphia and Baltimore-Indianapolis have each traded under 7,000 contracts so far) to tighten from two-cent spreads to near-penny spreads as September approaches. This page is rebuilt as that happens: our panel scores the slate as kickoff approaches, and the board above gets fully re-priced through late August.

When Do Week 1 Markets Settle?

Each Week 1 market settles on its own game, when that game goes final. The contract language is one sentence: if your team wins the game originally scheduled for its listed date, your YES side resolves to $1; if it loses, the contract expires worthless. On that rule as written, a tie is not a win for either side; the exact handling of ties and postponements lives in each market's full rule set on the exchange. Listed expirations run within hours of each final whistle, so opener money settles the night of September 9, the Sunday slate settles September 13, and the Monday night game settles September 14. There is no waiting on a grader: settlement follows the final score.

How To Place Your First NFL Trade

If this is your first exchange market, the mechanics take about five minutes. Prices are in cents, and every cent price is an implied probability you can read straight off the board: the Chargers at 81.5 cents are an 81.5% market call, the Lions at 75 cents are 75%, and a Packers ticket at 49.5 cents is a coin flip priced at 49.5%. A 65-cent contract pays $1 if it hits, so you are risking 65 to win 35, which is the same math as a roughly 65% breakeven. There is no vig line to decode, but there is a bid-ask spread and a trading fee, and, unlike a sportsbook ticket, you can sell out of a position mid-week (or mid-game) instead of riding it to the whistle. The full walk-through, from funding an account to reading a ladder, is in our guide to how to bet NFL on Kalshi, and the Kalshi NFL picks hub keeps the current board of every scored NFL market in one place. Before you take any Week 1 price, it is worth thirty seconds on our live NFL odds screen to see what every major sportsbook is paying on the same moneyline; sometimes the exchange is the best number on the board, and sometimes it is not.

The Settlement Retrospective

Every board we publish is publicly graded on the same URL, the same way our price-blind panel runs are graded against settled results in our backtest ledger. Once Week 1 is in the books, this page will carry a retrospective scoring the market's opening-week prices (and our panel's numbers, once they publish here) against the actual results: which favorites held, what the coin flips did, and how much the August prices moved by September 9. If the crowd's five-weeks-early read on games like Chiefs-Broncos was wrong, the grade will say so.

FAQ

Does Kalshi offer point spreads or totals for NFL Week 1? Not on the Week 1 game events as of August 1, 2026. Each game in the KXNFLGAME series lists winner contracts only, one yes/no market per team. The closest structural cousin to an over/under is the season-long win-total ladder each team carries in the KXNFLWINS series, where the rung that crosses 50 cents works like the market's line.

What happens if a Week 1 game ties or is postponed? Each contract's primary rule pays Yes only if the named team wins the game originally scheduled for its listed date, so on that language a tie is not a win for either side, and the originally-scheduled phrasing ties the market to the game rather than the calendar slot. The full tie and postponement handling lives in each market's complete rule set on Kalshi, which is worth reading before trading around weather or reschedule risk.

The Bottom Line

Opening week is already a live market. The champions are 65.5-cent favorites in a Wednesday night Super Bowl rematch, the Rams carry both the Melbourne game and the exchange's Super Bowl LXI favorite tag, and the crowd has two dead-even 50-50 calls in Packers-Vikings and Bills-Texans that it refuses to lean on. The prices above will move for five straight weeks as camps break and injury reports start meaning things, which is exactly what makes an exchange different from a sportsbook ticket: the number is never final until the game is. For the season-long version of this board, start with the 2026 win-totals verdict, where our panel has already scored all 32 teams.

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Prices fetched August 1, 2026, 12:01 UTC, from Kalshi's live order books (KXNFLGAME, KXNFLWINS, KXSB-27 series). Schedule and Super Bowl LX facts per Wikipedia's 2026 NFL season and Super Bowl LX pages, fetched August 1, 2026. This page is rebuilt as Week 1 markets are scored; fully priced by late August. To be explicit: these are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; 18+, eligible states only.