<<<<<<< Updated upstream What are the Bills' Super Bowl odds on Kalshi? 11 cents bid and 12 cents offered on the 2027 champion board, second only to the Rams at 12/13, after a 2-0 start that scored 77 points. Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 9:40 a.m. ET, Kalshi asks before fees.
Buffalo's price moved more in two games than in the four months before them. From mid-May through the September 7 update of this page, Buffalo's championship contract moved exactly one cent, from 6/7 to 7/8. Then the Bills went to Houston and won 36-31, came home and beat Detroit 41-31 on a Thursday night, and the same contract now shows 11 bid, 12 ask. Four cents in two weeks, on a market that had spent a summer refusing to budge, and it carried Buffalo past every AFC team and every NFC team except one.
What are the Bills' Super Bowl odds on Kalshi? 11 cents bid and 12 cents offered on the 2027 champion board, second only to the Rams at 12/13, after a 2-0 start that scored 77 points. Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 8:40 a.m. ET, Kalshi asks before fees.
Two games did what four months could not. From mid-May through the September 7 update of this page, Buffalo's championship contract moved exactly one cent, from 6/7 to 7/8. Then the Bills went to Houston and won 36-31, came home and beat Detroit 41-31 on a Thursday night, and the same contract now shows 11 bid, 12 ask. Four cents in two weeks, on a market that had spent a summer refusing to budge, and it carried Buffalo past every AFC team and every NFC team except one.
Stashed changes
Here is what the move costs a buyer and what it made for a holder. On September 7, 100 contracts on Buffalo at the 8-cent ask cost $8.52 with the fee and returned $100 if the Bills won, an effective +1074. This morning the same $100 payout costs $12.74, an effective +685. The 2-0 start took 389 points of odds off the table for anyone arriving now. Anyone who bought those 100 contracts three weeks ago can sell them into the 11-cent bid today for $10.31 after the fee, a $1.79 profit on $8.52, 21% in two games without a Super Bowl being played.
The Top Of The 2027 Champion Board
The Rams and Bills sit alone above 10 cents. Behind them the contenders are packed into a three-cent band.
| Team | Bid | Ask | Weeks 1-2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 12¢ | 13¢ | 1-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11¢ | 12¢ | 2-0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8¢ | 9¢ | 2-0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7¢ | 8¢ | 2-0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7¢ | 8¢ | 2-0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6¢ | 7¢ | 1-1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5¢ | 6¢ | 2-0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5¢ | 6¢ | 2-0 |
<<<<<<< Updated upstream The Rams lost their opener 27-7 at home to San Francisco and still lead the board, three cents below the 15/16 they carried on September 7. The Rams also fell three cents, so half of Buffalo's gain is the favorite cooling off. The gap between the two asks was eight cents three weeks ago. It is one cent now.
The Rams lost their opener 27-7 at home to San Francisco and still lead the board, three cents below the 15/16 they carried on September 7. That is the other half of the Buffalo story: the Bills rose and the favorite came back toward them. The gap between the two asks was eight cents three weeks ago. It is one cent now.
Stashed changes
What A 12-Cent Share Actually Pays
The sticker conversion is the easy part. A contract bought at 12 cents risks 12 cents to make 88, which is +733 in American odds. Most people stop there, and at this price they are wrong by 48 points.
The reason is the trading fee. The published schedule prices a standard trade at round up(0.07 × C × P × (1 - P)), where C is your contract count and P is the price in dollars. It is charged when you trade, not taken out of winnings, so it belongs in the break-even math before you click. Run it at four order sizes:
| Order | Cost + fee | Returns | Effective odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Contract @ 12¢ | $0.13 | $1.00 | +669 | 13.00% |
| 10 Contracts @ 12¢ | $1.28 | $10.00 | +681 | 12.80% |
| 100 Contracts @ 12¢ | $12.74 | $100.00 | +685 | 12.74% |
| 1,000 Contracts @ 12¢ | $127.40 | $1,000.00 | +685 | 12.74% |
The first row is the one I got wrong myself the first time I bought a single contract at the cheap end of a board. A raw fee of three-quarters of a cent rounds up to a full cent, so the same team that pays +685 in a hundred-lot pays +669 in a one-lot. The fix is to trade in blocks rather than singles.
From the 100-contract row onward the numbers settle: 12.74% is the real break-even, not the 12% the sticker implies. That break-even was 8.52% on September 7. Two wins raised the bar by 4.22 points of probability.
The Order That Costs You 109 Points Of Odds
<<<<<<< Updated upstream Everything above assumes you take the 12-cent ask., and it is still the most expensive click on the page.
Everything above assumes you take the 12-cent ask. That is a decision, not a requirement, and it is still the most expensive click on the page.
Stashed changes
Rest a limit order at 11 cents instead and you are providing the quote rather than paying it. Where a maker fee applies, the published coefficient is 0.0175 rather than 0.07. Stack the three versions of the same 100-contract position:
| How You Get In (100 Contracts) | All-in cost | Effective odds |
|---|---|---|
| Take The 12¢ Ask | $12.74 | +685 |
| Take An 11¢ Offer, If One Appears | $11.69 | +755 |
| Rest An 11¢ Bid And Get Filled | $11.18 | +794 |
Those 109 points are not all fee tier: 70 of them are simply paying a cent less, and only the last 39 come from making rather than taking. The price you pay matters more than the fee bracket you land in.
On September 7 the same ladder ran from +1074 to +1304, a 230-point spread, because a cent is worth more on an 8-cent contract than on a 12-cent one. The order type mattered most when Buffalo was cheap and still. Now that the price is moving, the fill matters more than the fee: a bid resting at 11 cents on a contract that climbed four cents in two weeks can be left behind by the next win.
When The Exchange Beats A Sportsbook Future
+685 is the number to carry to the sportsbook, because it converts an exchange quote into the only currency a futures ticket understands. A book's Bills future is the cheaper route if it posts better than +685, and the exchange is if it posts worse. There is no third answer.
The sportsbook side of this page is dated. Our Super Bowl 2027 board had Buffalo at +1000 on July 14, and that +1000 is the number this page carried at its September 7 update, when it lost the comparison against +1074. Against +685 it wins by 315 points. But a July futures price on a team that has since gone 2-0 is history, not a quote; a book that has repriced will sit closer to the exchange. Pull the live number before deciding.
The exchange's own margin is the other half of the comparison. Sum every price on the 2027 champion board at its midpoint and you get 101%, against the 100% a fair board would sum to. The asks sum to 117% and the bids to 85%, but a one-cent minimum tick inflates the spread when 13 of the 32 contracts trade at 0/1, so 101% is the number to carry. A sportsbook futures board is one number per team with no bid to sell into; strip the vig out and see how far past 100% it sums. Whichever board sits closer to 100% is charging less.
There is also the part a futures ticket cannot do at all, and the September 7 buyer just demonstrated it. An exchange position can be sold before settlement to whoever is bidding, which is how an 8-cent position becomes $10.31 in September rather than a ticket that pays nothing until February. That is what makes hedging a live longshot in January a market transaction rather than a negotiation with the book's cash-out number, the clearest structural edge an exchange has over a book.
Hold both numbers up at once.OddsShopper Pro prices the NFL board with the vig stripped out, so a sportsbook's futures number and an exchange contract land in the same units instead of two different ones. Free 7-day trial, and code BILLSSB20 takes 20% off your first payment.
When The Sportsbook Wins Instead
The threshold cuts both ways, and three things push it back toward the book.
- Promotional Pricing. Odds boosts, profit boosts and bonus-bet conversions apply to a futures ticket and have no equivalent on an exchange quote. A boosted Bills future can clear +685 on a number that would not have come close unboosted.
- The Exit Spread. Buying at 12 and selling at 11 surrenders a cent on an immediate round trip, 8.3% of the position. Anyone trading in and out rather than holding to February pays that toll every lap.
- Access. A sportsbook future you can actually place beats an exchange price you cannot reach.
Position limits cap how much size one account can put on a contract. Our glossary of prediction market terms defines every term above, and the NFL futures comparison runs this math across division and conference markets.
Week 3: Chargers At Buffalo
The next input to the title price is Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo's win contract for the game sits at 75 bid, 76 ask, and the Chargers' side at 24/25. Los Angeles is 0-2, and both losses came by the same 26-14 score, at home to Arizona and at home to Las Vegas. The Bills have not scored fewer than 36 points in a game this season. The arithmetic on this page is built for a 12-cent ask, and it gets redone if Sunday moves the number.
Watch The Video
Everything above prices a market someone else made. Our walkthrough, How to Use Kalshi to Make Money Sports Betting, does the harder half: setting your own number first, then checking it against the quote instead of anchoring to what the screen says. The sequence for any team is the same one this page ran on Buffalo: use the ask, not the last trade; add the fee at your size; re-derive the odds from the all-in cost; then shop the same team's future across every major book and take whichever pays more.
The lesson of this page changed in two weeks. When Buffalo sat at 8 cents through a whole summer, the fee and the order type were the largest moving parts, and a careless click cost more than three months of football news. Now the football is the largest moving part: two wins repriced the contract by four cents, and the same careless click costs 109 points instead of 230. The price you pay is still decided by how many contracts you buy at once and whether you take the quote or post it. The price itself is decided on Sundays. Our read on Buffalo's playoff chances makes the football argument, and today's free expert picks cover the games that get them there.
Price the whole board, not one team.OddsShopper Pro shows the no-vig fair price behind every NFL market and the Liquidity Tool tracks where exchange money is actually moving, so the futures comparison above runs on all 32 teams instead of one. Code BILLSSB20 takes 20% off your first payment.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
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