The Quick Answer
Kimi Antonelli won the Italian Grand Prix at Monza on Sunday, September 6, 2026, from nineteenth on the grid, and the Kalshi contract that paid for it was 3 cents bid and 5 asked when this page priced the board on race morning, two hours before the start. It settled at a dollar at 3:14 p.m. ET. George Russell, the 52-cent favorite from second on the grid, finished second, 3.857 seconds behind his teammate. Max Verstappen, 5 to 6 cents on race morning, was third from fifth. Pierre Gasly turned his shock Alpine pole into seventh, and Charles Leclerc, the 18-cent second favorite, was in the barrier at the final corner on lap 2, and the red flag that followed turned a track-position race into the one Antonelli needed. He is the first Italian to win the Italian Grand Prix since Ludovico Scarfiotti at Monza in 1966. The AI panel that priced this race before a car ran had him at 4.5%. The market had him at a nickel. The winner paid twenty times the ask, and neither the seats nor the crowd saw it coming. What the price history looked like as nineteenth became first, minute by minute, and how the eight-seat panel grades against a board that had the winner at a nickel, is below.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
The Board, Graded
Twenty-two drivers had a contract. Eight carried a two-sided quote on race morning, and the table grades all eight against the flag: the race-morning quote is the 10:50 AM UTC pull this page carried into the race, the last-print column is the final trade on each contract before the formation lap at 9:00 a.m. ET, and the panel column is the eight-model read from August 31, frozen exactly as it was written. The hero chart above still shows the August 31 opening board; this table is the finished one.
| Driver | Team | Started | Finished | Race morning: bid / ask | Last print before the formation lap | Panel median (Aug 31) | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 19th | 1st | 3¢ / 5¢ | 5¢ | 4.5% | Yes, $1.00 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | 2nd | 2nd | 50¢ / 52¢ | 53¢ | 22.4% | No |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 5th | 3rd | 5¢ / 6¢ | 6¢ | 8.2% | No |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | 8th | 4th | 3¢ / 4¢ | 2¢ | 22.7% | No |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 6th | 5th | 4¢ / 5¢ | 3¢ | 7.0% | No |
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 4th | 6th | 11¢ / 13¢ | 13¢ | 13.8% | No |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1st (pole) | 7th | 5¢ / 7¢ | 6¢ | 0.8% | No |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 3rd | Out, lap 2 | 16¢ / 18¢ | 18¢ | 14.4% | No |
Market prices from the Kalshi API. The race-morning column is the 10:50 AM UTC pull on September 6, 2026; the last-print column is the final trade on each contract before 9:00 a.m. ET the same day, from the full trade tape. The panel column is frozen at its August 31 values and was not re-run. Grid positions are the final grid; classification per Formula 1's official results. The 22 contracts are the listing-time field, not the grid: Isack Hadjar still carries a contract and about 14,500 open positions while sitting out, and Yuki Tsunoda, who finished tenth, never had one. Settlement data, volume and open interest were fetched from the Kalshi API at 4:07 p.m. ET on September 6, 2026, after settlement.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements, and the full record is public on the graded scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: F1 2026 champion odds (Antonelli 86¢ bid, 87¢ asked at 4:16 p.m. ET on September 6, up from 71 to 72 on race morning, and still 86 to 87 on a September 9 check) · F1 constructors' championship odds · Dutch Grand Prix board (settled on Norris, the panel's miss).
The row that tells the story is the top one, and it is the same row this page has been writing about since August 31. Antonelli's contract traded 1,023,615 contracts over its life, more than any other on the board, and 562,876 of them changed hands between 9:00 and 10:55 a.m. ET on Sunday. When the exchange closed the market at 3:08 p.m. ET, 434,401 of those positions were still open, a little under a quarter of the 1.92 million open across all 22 drivers. On race morning this page said about a quarter of the open positions on the board sat on Antonelli's contract. Every one of those yes tickets was paid a dollar.
One correction to the morning edition, which had him starting twentieth on Crash.net's provisional grid: the final grid had him nineteenth, because Fernando Alonso, who qualified twenty-first and would have lined up ahead of the penalized cars, was sent to the pit lane after his car was modified under parc fermé, per the race's grid on Wikipedia, which also has Liam Lawson starting from the pit lane and Alexander Albon twentieth. Nineteenth is the number in Formula 1's and Sky Sports' reports, and it is the one this page uses now.
How Nineteenth Became First
The race that ran was the race this page said Monza's history required and this season's form forbade: one that broke early. Formula 1's official report has the shape of it. Gasly led into the first chicane and Hamilton ran through the gravel behind him on lap 1; Antonelli, per Sky Sports, had gone from nineteenth to twelfth, seven places, in the laps before the race was stopped. Russell took the lead from Gasly on the second lap, per Sky Sports. At the end of the same lap Leclerc lost the Ferrari exiting the final corner and hit the barrier hard, got out of the car unaided, and Race Control sent the safety car and then the red flag.
The stoppage is where the race was decided, and not because of anything that happened on track. Grandprix.com's race notes put the red flag at about 39 minutes, with the restart announced at 3:39 p.m. local time, and Formula 1's report records a standing restart after one abandoned start procedure, when Yuki Tsunoda missed his grid slot. Antonelli lined up twelfth for it on medium tyres, per The Race, with the field bunched and the pole sitter's track-position advantage, the one the market had been paying a nickel for, already gone. Russell took hards at the restart. That single tyre choice is the rest of the story.
From twelfth, the passes came in order: Grandprix.com has Antonelli sixth by lap 7, Formula 1 has him past Gasly on lap 10 and past Piastri for fourth at the second chicane on lap 13, and Formula 1 has Verstappen, who had taken the lead from Russell on lap 12, giving second place up to Antonelli on lap 16 while reporting a rear axle "completely broken" on the radio, a message The Race carries too. Verstappen's own contract is the clock on that sequence: it peaked at 40 cents at 9:54:44 a.m. ET, the price of a Red Bull in the lead, and was a penny by 10:02. In between, Antonelli's contract went from a 30-cent print to 43, 50 and 56, between 9:55 and 9:59. On lap 18 Antonelli went past his teammate into Turn 1 for the lead, and the first 70-cent print landed at 9:59:49.
He did not keep it. Grandprix.com's notes record Russell re-passing on lap 20 and Antonelli taking it back, the same exchange on lap 22, and Russell passing on lap 23 and holding. The market refused to mark the man in second below 50 cents through any of it, because it was pricing the radio that follows, not the running order. The radio traffic, as Grandprix.com and The Race carried it, is the sound of a team trying to run two title contenders in the same car: Antonelli's engineer told him to "stop yo-yoing," and Antonelli's answer, in the exchange Formula 1 published, is the one quoted below. The Race has the rest of the instruction: Russell was to be given time to build a gap to Verstappen behind him, and, in the words The Race quotes, "If he can't do that, we'll invert." Grandprix.com adds the lap 25 version, that Antonelli should give Russell a chance to pull away and that "Otherwise, later they will let Antonelli back through." Russell's reply to his own pit wall, per Formula 1: "Just let me drive. I'm driving as quick as I can." Formula 1's report also has Antonelli going too deep at the first chicane at the start of lap 26 and running over the inside strip of gravel, two laps before the stop; on this page's clock that is somewhere around 10:09, where the yo-yo window's 50-cent low sits, and this page will not claim more than the coincidence.
"Yeah right, and in the meantime, he passed me. Do you want me just to sit behind, or what?" — Kimi Antonelli, on the radio, answering the "stop yo-yoing" message The Race puts on lap 22, as published by Formula 1
The team never had to invert anything, because Lance Stroll's Aston Martin stopped on track with a hydraulics problem and brought out a virtual safety car (Grandprix.com and The Race put it on lap 28, Sky Sports has the pit stops on lap 29). Antonelli pitted for fresh mediums and came out sixth. Russell stayed out on the hards he had fitted at the restart. Grandprix.com's gaps from there read like a countdown: 7.3 seconds on lap 37, 4.7 on lap 43, 2.8 on lap 44 as Mercedes told Russell to "just bring the car home," 1.5 on lap 45. On lap 49 Antonelli got close into the first chicane, ran wide on the exit and through the gravel, rejoining 0.8 seconds back. On lap 50 he passed Russell between the second Lesmo and Ascari and, in Formula 1's phrase, went "storming into the distance." He set the fastest lap of the race, 1:23.504, on the 53rd and last lap, and won by 3.857 seconds. "I could never have imagined to be here today, but we managed to pull it off," he said afterward. "It's a dream coming true."
The Price History, By The Clock
One note on method before the numbers. The price history is stamped to the millisecond; the lap chart is not. The anchors that pin the two together are the 9:00 a.m. ET formation lap, the red flag about five minutes later, the restart announcement at 3:39 p.m. local (9:39 a.m. ET) and the finish at about 10:53 a.m. ET, where the price history's first 99-cent print sits at 10:52:39 with the 10:55 minute still trading; the classified race time of 1:51:15, which includes the stoppage, lands in the same place counted from a start a couple of minutes after the 9:00 formation lap. Between those anchors, the lap references below are approximate, and where the price history does something the race record cannot explain, this page says so rather than inventing a cause.
Antonelli's contract had sat between 2 and 5 cents all morning, and at 4 to 5 for the last half hour of it: 5 cents on the last print before the formation lap. The first three minutes of racing took it to 7 and then 10 as he cleared seven cars. Then the red flag arrived and the contract did what thin markets do under a stopped race: it printed 11, then 4, then 3 cents at 9:06, while Russell's contract, with its driver now leading, went from 53 cents before the lights to 70 at 9:05:27 and 75 inside the same minute, and Leclerc's went from a 28-cent print at 9:05:03 to a penny at 9:06:28. Verstappen, third for the restart per Sky Sports, traded up to 37 cents in the same five minutes.
| Time (ET) | Antonelli | Russell | What the record puts there |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:59 a.m. | 5¢ | 53¢ | Last prints before the formation lap |
| 9:03 to 9:04 | 7¢, then 10¢ | 61¢ | The opening laps: nineteenth to twelfth |
| 9:05 to 9:06 | 11¢ high, 3¢ low | 75¢ high | Leclerc's crash, safety car, red flag |
| 9:38 to 9:39 | 10¢ to 12¢, 7,592 contracts in the 9:38 minute | 71¢ | Restart announced 3:39 p.m. local |
| 9:47 to 9:49 | 7¢ to 20¢ | 79¢ high at 9:48:16 | The climb begins; sixth by lap 7 |
| 9:55 to 9:59 | 30, 43, 50, 56, then 70¢ | 30¢ at 9:54:37, 19¢ at 9:57:27 | Past Verstappen (lap 16), past Russell (lap 18) |
| 10:03 to 10:10 | 76¢ high, 50¢ low | 38¢ high | The yo-yo laps; Russell ahead from lap 23 |
| 10:11 to 10:16 | 24¢ print, then 34¢ to 60¢ | 71¢ high | Antonelli's stop under the virtual safety car |
| 10:20 to 10:23 | 13¢ print at 10:20, 19¢ low at 10:22, back above 60¢ | 19¢ to 40¢ | Russell leading on used hards; nothing in the record |
| 10:33 to 10:37 | 90¢ at 10:33:41, then 29¢ at 10:36:50 | 2¢ at 10:34:44, then 60¢ at 10:36:29 | Nothing in the race record explains it |
| 10:45 to 10:47 | 91¢ to 94¢ on 86,786 contracts | 3¢ to 35¢, then 6¢ to 10¢ | Antonelli inside two seconds and closing |
| 10:47 to 10:48 | 95¢, then 37¢ at 10:48:39 | 75¢ at 10:47:19, 56¢ at 10:48:27 | The gravel at the first chicane (lap 49) |
| 10:50 to 10:51 | 97¢ at 10:50:59 | 2¢ at 10:50:57, 1¢ at 10:51:14 | The pass at Ascari (lap 50) |
| 10:52 to 10:53 | 99¢ | 1¢ | The flag |
| 3:14 p.m. | Settled $1.00 | Settled $0 | Exchange settlement |
Prices are trade prints on the Kalshi race-winner contracts, in cents, from the full trade tape for each contract. Times are Eastern. Lap references are approximate between the anchors described above.
The restart is the pivot the price history shows most clearly. From 9:10 until the restart was called, Antonelli's contract drifted between 5 and 14 cents on light volume, and Russell's sat between 63 and 71. The 9:38 minute, the one just before the restart call landed, put 7,592 contracts through Antonelli's book at 10 to 12 cents, the busiest minute of the stoppage, and the price still said the crowd expected a Mercedes to win from the front, not the back. That read lasted nine minutes. Between 9:47 and 9:59 a.m., 92,633 contracts traded on Antonelli's contract and 69,726 of them had a buyer lifting the offer: 7 cents at 9:47, 20 by 9:48, 30 at 9:55, 43 at 9:56, 50 at 9:57, 56 at 9:58, and the first 70-cent print at 9:59. Russell's contract crossed the other way, from its 79-cent high at 9:48:16 to a 30-cent print at 9:54:37 and a 6,862-contract cluster at 19 to 34 cents at 9:57:27, 6,679 of them with the taker on the yes side, which is what it looks like when a crowd decides the favorite is about to be passed and wants back in cheap.
The middle of the race is the part the price history reads better than the lap chart does. While the two Mercedes swapped the lead on laps 20 to 23 and Russell held it from 23, the window this page maps to those laps, 10:03 to 10:10 a.m., never printed Antonelli below 50 cents, and printed 76 at its high. The market was pricing the radio, not the running order: a driver sitting second with a pending promise to be let back through was worth more than the man in front of him. The pit stop under the virtual safety car cost him the position on paper and about 30 cents on the screen, down to a 24-cent print at 10:11 and five minutes of prints between 34 and 60, most of them in the 40s, while Russell's contract was bid back up to 71. There was one more air pocket before the climb: a 13-cent print at 10:20 and a 19-cent low inside the 10:22 minute, a 9,789-contract minute that ran mostly on the sell side, with Russell's contract no higher than 40 through the same minutes; the record has nothing there either, and Antonelli's price printed 70 again at 10:22:55. Then the gaps started closing and the price went with them, 60 to 75 through 10:26 to 10:29, 77 at 10:30, 80 at 10:32:25 and 86 at 10:32:57.
What happened next is the one stretch this page cannot explain. At 10:33:41 Antonelli printed 90 cents for the first time. At 10:34:44 Russell's contract printed 38 fills in a single second, most of them at 8 and 9 cents and the last of them at 2. Ninety seconds later the whole thing reversed: one second of buying at 10:36:19 ran Russell's contract from 40 up through 59, it printed 60 at 10:36:29, and Antonelli printed 29 at 10:36:50 and again at 10:37:30. Nothing in Formula 1's report, Grandprix.com's notes or The Race's account records a pass, a spin, a penalty or a team order at that point; by Grandprix.com's gaps the Mercedes were still somewhere between the 7.3 seconds of lap 37 and the 4.7 of lap 43. The "we'll invert" and "let him pull away" messages date to laps 22 and 25, half an hour earlier on this clock, and the only sourced radio from later in the race is Russell's "the tyre is opening up" in the final ten laps. None of them belongs to this window. Something moved sixty cents of probability twice in three minutes, in opposite directions, the record does not say what, and this page will leave it there, because a guess with a timestamp is still a guess.
The gravel is not a guess. Antonelli's contract had run 91 to 94 cents from 10:45 to 10:47 on 86,786 contracts, and 79,501 of those had the taker on the no side. Read that plainly: with the pass not yet made, 79,501 contracts crossed with the taker on the no side, which is either a holder of a nickel ticket selling into the 93-cent bid or a trader paying 6 or 7 cents for insurance, and the price history cannot tell the two apart. Either way, the crowd was taking money off the table before the flag. At 10:47:19 a single second put 4,441 contracts through Russell's book, all but about 1,100 of them at 10 to 12 cents, and the thin tail of it ran the offer up to 75. At 10:48:39, as Antonelli put four wheels in the gravel at the first chicane, his contract printed 37, and Russell's printed 56 twelve seconds earlier. Two minutes later the pass at Ascari was on the price history: Russell printed 2 cents at 10:50:57, Antonelli had a 97-cent print two seconds later, 99 at 10:52:39, and 99 on all 9,945 contracts that traded in the 10:55 minute while the podium was still being assembled. The exchange closed the market at 3:08 p.m. ET and settled it at 3:14 p.m.
Russell's contract, for the record, traded 398,401 contracts between 8:55 and 11:00 a.m., and its holders lived through a 53-cent start, a 79-cent high, a 14-cent low as the lead changed hands, a 71-cent recovery when the pit stop went their way, a 2-cent print while he still led, and a 75-cent sweep in the minute before his teammate went through the gravel, before it settled at zero. "The tyre is opening up," Russell told his engineer in the final ten laps, per Formula 1's report. The price history had been saying the same thing since 10:26.
The Panel's Grade
The panel was wrong about the winner, and so was everyone else. Every one of the eight seats put Antonelli between about 3% and 5.6% on August 31, every seat inside or barely above the 3-to-5-cent spread the market carried into the race, and the median of 4.5% sat half a cent above the 4-cent midpoint. Neither number was a call. A 4.5% read on a driver who then wins is a miss of the same size as a 4-cent price on him, and the honest way to grade it is to say the seats and the crowd made the same mistake for the same reason: both sided with this season's rule that every race had been won from the front row over Monza's habit of breaking open, and both were right about the rule and wrong about the exception.
The Norris fade aged well and the market got there first. On August 31 the panel would not pay the 32 cents Norris cost for a driver it put at 22.7%; he started eighth, finished fourth and traded at 2 cents before the lights, and on that row the crowd's 3-to-4-cent price was closer to the settlement than the panel's 22.7% was.
The Russell haircut is the row this page kept coming back to on race morning, when I wrote that a 22.4% read on a driver the market made three times as likely as anyone else was the number the panel would have to answer for on Sunday night. It answered. Russell's contract settled at zero from a 51-cent midpoint, and the panel's 22.4% was less wrong than the market's 51 by a wide margin. Add up the squared misses on the eight priced rows against the settlement, and the panel's total comes to 1.07 against the market's 1.24, with the rows splitting four apiece: the panel closer on Russell, Leclerc, Gasly and, by half a cent, Antonelli; the market closer on Norris, Hamilton, Verstappen and Piastri. The Russell row is the margin and then some: 0.05 against 0.26, a 0.21 edge on a 0.17 total. Take Russell out and the market grades better on the other seven, 0.97 to 1.01. One row is the whole verdict. The panel did not beat the market by seeing the winner. It beat the market by refusing to pay 51 cents for a favorite who did not convert, which is exactly what it did at Zandvoort on August 23, where the favorite converted and the same refusal was the panel's miss. Two races, one habit, two grades.
Gasly's row deserves a line, and a grade: 0.8% against a 6-cent midpoint, a squared miss of 0.0001 against the market's 0.0036, the panel's cleanest hit on the board, and it came from a note about 2020, not about pace. The seat that filed his 2020 win as the chaos exception, a race that needed a penalty and a red flag to happen, was right that Gasly's pole would not convert without chaos and wrong about where the chaos would land. The red flag came. It handed the race to the driver whose team had spent his Saturday building the other car's front-row start.
Why Antonelli Was 5 Cents At Home
The price that paid twenty to one was built on Mercedes' arithmetic. Antonelli had already reached his season limit on two power-unit components after technical problems this year, Mercedes chose to fit an entirely fresh unit at Monza, and the penalty for that is a start from the back, all of it per Motorsport.com's August 24 report. Teams serve those penalties where positions are cheapest to win back, and Toto Wolff said so plainly when Motorsport.com asked him that day:
With Kimi we are taking the full thing. [...] Obviously, our algorithms don't take nationality into consideration. But we are here to fight for a championship and not get the most PR. — Toto Wolff, Mercedes team principal
The market took the team at its word, and it was right to: the same car, one garage over, started second and was priced at 52 cents. What made Antonelli's 5 cents look cheap only in hindsight is the part of the weekend that never touched the race-winner board. He set the fastest lap of Q2, a 1:21.882, then spent Q3 as a tow car for Russell, telling Sky Sports on Saturday that "if the team will ask me to do so, I will do it." The car that towed the pole challenger on Saturday was the fastest thing on the circuit on Sunday, and it started nineteenth with a fresh engine and nothing to protect.
The price it changed most was not the race price. On the drivers' championship market, Antonelli traded at 71 to 72 cents on race morning; at 4:16 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 6, he was 86 bid, 87 asked, with Russell at 5 to 6, and a check at 1:06 a.m. ET on September 9 found both prices unchanged. Sky Sports puts his lead at 66 points, and Formula 1's report has the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid the following weekend, September 11 to 13. The F1 2026 champion board carries the remaining-points arithmetic.
Monza's Record Has A New Entry
On race morning this page asked whether anyone could win Monza from the back and gave both answers. Monza's history said yes: pole had converted only four times in the previous 11 runnings, Gasly had won from tenth in 2020, Verstappen from seventh in 2022. This season said no: every race under the new regulations had been won from the front row. Both deep-grid winners in the recent record needed the race to break, a pit-lane-closed penalty and a red flag in 2020, a safety-car finish in 2022, and the forecast for Sunday was sunny, 34 degrees and a zero percent chance of rain. The market's nickel was the price of a race that would not break.
It broke on lap 2. Leclerc's crash and the 39-minute stoppage did three things at once: it erased the pole sitter's clean air, it turned a 53-lap one-stop into a standing start with about 50 laps left and Antonelli twelfth on mediums, and it put the whole field on the same straight at the same time, which is the one condition under which a Mercedes at the back of a Monza grid is a Mercedes with a slipstream. The season's rule, front row or nothing, is over, and the entry that ended it is a driver who started nineteenth and led by lap 18. The next time a board prices a class car at the back of a grid with a red flag's worth of variance in front of it, the question is not whether the base rate is right. It is what the price should be for the race breaking, and on Sunday morning the market's answer, all in, was a nickel.
Sixty years is the other number. Ludovico Scarfiotti won the 1966 Italian Grand Prix at Monza for Ferrari on September 4, 1966, his only Grand Prix win, and no Italian had won the race since until Sunday. Sky Sports and Wikipedia both carry the line. The board it paid out on was listed at 4:03 a.m. UTC on August 24, the same day Wolff explained why the driver would start at the back.
The Bottom Line
Mercedes put its championship leader at the back on purpose, used him to tow the other car to the front row, and got a win from him anyway, because a red flag on lap 2 turned the race it had planned for into the one Monza's history promised. The board priced that outcome at a nickel and the panel at 4.5%, and both grades stand: the seats were less wrong than the crowd about the favorite and exactly as wrong about the winner.
The question this page left open on race morning deserves the number it did not give. Two of the last 11 Monzas were won from seventh or worse, and both needed the race to break: call that a breaking rate of two in eleven, about 18%. Give the fastest car on the grid half of the races that do break, whoever is in front of it, and a class car starting at the back of a Monza grid is worth something near 9 cents before anyone looks at the driver, roughly double what the market and the panel had on Antonelli. Turn it around and the nickel reads differently: with those same assumptions, 5 cents on the winner is a price on Monza breaking about one time in ten, and Monza's own record says two in eleven. That is an estimate built on two data points and one stated assumption, not a price and not advice, and the next Monza will move it. The direction is the lesson. The seats and the crowd both graded the driver correctly and priced the circuit as if it were clean, and Monza is not.
The price history is the other part worth keeping. It priced the restart at 11 cents, the lead at 70, the pit stop at 24, the gravel at 37 and the pass at 97, and 79,501 contracts crossed with the taker on the no side at 91 to 94 cents before the pass was made, holders cashing out, insurance buyers, or both. The market started paying for the winner about nine minutes after the restart was called and had him at 70 cents twenty minutes after it. Nobody found him before the lights.
The Kalshi picks hub runs the same graded-in-public method across the day's biggest markets every morning.
More on this: Spanish Grand Prix Odds: Antonelli Favored On A Track No F1 Car Has Raced · Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds: Russell 15% To 65% After Pole · National Bank Open Odds: 25 Seeds Gone, Shelton Alive · Oregon vs. USC Prediction: The Stakes Couldn't Be Higher · Take The Points: NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game
