Slate: Sunday, Aug 16, 2026 · Prices as of August 16, 2026, 8:41 a.m. ET · Archived edition
The Quick Answer
Tom Kim's contract to finish top 20 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship was the biggest mover on the Aug 16 sheet, going from 16¢ to 80¢ in a day. The widest market-vs-model gap, on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 before 2027, was our panel's mistake rather than the market's, because the seats priced the Pro launch onto the standard-model contract. There was no Pick of the Day. Nothing settling inside 48 hours carried a panel read, and every wide disagreement on the sheet was a winter future.
This is the archived Aug 16 edition. The live page updates every morning at Kalshi picks today.
The Morning Grade
The panel is a bank of AI models (Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GPT, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, GLM, and DeepSeek) that each put a probability on Kalshi markets without seeing the price. Every call is graded against the real settlement.
No new grades had landed since Wednesday, Aug 12, so the day record on Aug 16 was the same one the page carried on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
Positions are graded as one theoretical contract per call, bought on the panel's side at the ask, with each contract paying $1.00 at settlement.
| Ledger | Calls | Avg price | Staked | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest Graded Day (Wed, Aug 12) | 69 | 78¢ | $53.54 | −$1.54 | −2.9% |
| Full 17-Day Window | 1,406 | 76¢ | $1,069.57 | −$0.57 | −0.05% |
The average-price column explains the table. At 76¢ this is a heavy-favorite book, so it wins most of its calls by construction, and a win count would look terrific and mean nothing. The net result was flat: 57 cents lost on $1,069.57 staked.
Break-even on a 78¢ contract is 78%, so the book has to be right nearly four times in five just to hold serve. Being right most of the time is not the same as being right often enough.
Return by seat, same window:
| Seat | Graded calls | Staked | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet | 295 | $202.70 | +6.07% |
| Claude Fable | 299 | $204.22 | +5.77% |
| Claude Opus | 297 | $205.25 | +2.80% |
| Kimi | 1,324 | $992.14 | +0.99% |
| Grok | 2,007 | $1,538.71 | +0.93% |
| DeepSeek | 1,356 | $984.74 | +0.74% |
| GLM | 1,350 | $999.87 | +0.71% |
| Gemini | 2,177 | $1,683.30 | −1.32% |
| GPT | 2,783 | $2,112.11 | −2.23% |
GPT is the largest book on the board and the worst performer, while the three seats above 2% all sit on books under 300 calls. That ordering is what a sample-size artifact looks like from the inside, which is why the call counts are published next to the returns. Ask again in a thousand calls.
Most boards on the gap screen were polled the same morning and had not had time to drift. The one that had was Jacob Misiorowski to win the National League Cy Young, polled on August 5 at 79.5¢ against a blended read of 43.1%. By Aug 16 it traded at a mid of 87¢, with all of the drift running against the panel, and it does not settle until the end of December.
The complete graded history is public on the Model Verdict Scoreboard.
Pick Of The Day
No call. The flagship needs a market settling inside 48 hours where the panel disagrees with the price, and the 12 widest rows on the sheet all carried expiry stamps in November, December or January. The boards that did settle on Aug 16, a baseball slate, a soccer card, a full tennis card and the 5 p.m. crypto candles, were never polled, so there was no panel number to hold their prices against. That is the shape of a Sunday in mid-August: the fast half of the exchange is a sports slate, and the half the panel had been working was a set of winter futures.
The Gap
Apple to release the iPhone 18 before 2027 — Market: 12¢. Panel: 66.0%.
The widest gap on the sheet, on a book that had traded $662,034 with a penny-wide quote. Eight seats spread from 55% to 90%. It passes the three structural checks this page runs, spread, volume and seat cluster, and I still think our number was wrong rather than the market's.
Here is the check that flips it. Our full model verdict on this exact contract, dated August 3, reported a five-model run blending to 20% before 2027 against a market of 19¢, within a few points of each other. The Aug 16 eight-seat run priced the same rung at 66.0% while the market fell to 12¢. Nothing on the sheet says Apple did anything in between. What changed is which phone the seats thought the contract was about.
DeepSeek, filing the highest read, says it out loud: "Pegatron confirmed Pro lineup on track for September; 'iPhone 18' likely includes Pro models, so Oct 1 rung is high confidence." That is a claim about the September Pro launch being on schedule, which nobody disputes. But the contract's rule text reads "If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes," and Kalshi runs the Pro as a separate market. A seat that prices the Pro launch onto the standard-model ladder is answering a different question. On any release-date ladder, read the resolution text before you read the gap.
| Board | Market | Panel | Gap | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple iPhone 18, Before 2027 | 12¢ | 66.0% | +54.0 pts | 1¢ | $662,034 |
| Apple iPhone 18, Before October | 6¢ | 53.8% | +47.8 pts | 1¢ | $871,755 |
| OpenAI GPT-6, Before 2027 | 78¢ | 18.6% | −59.4 pts | 6¢ | $37,162 |
| OpenAI GPT-6, Before Nov 1 | 50¢ | 9.1% | −40.9 pts | 4¢ | $73,244 |
| OpenAI Astra, Before Oct 1 | 72¢ | 25.1% | −46.9 pts | 3¢ | $9,863 |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin, Before 2027 | 86¢ | 13.5% | −72.5 pts | 7¢ | $0 |
The GPT-6 rows are where the panel's scope argument is the one I would keep. The market priced a model called GPT-6 or higher arriving before 2027 at 78¢; the panel said 18.6%. DeepSeek's note is the cleanest statement of the case on the sheet: "No GPT-6 name signal; Astra branding likely displaces numeric naming. Contract pays on literal name, not capability." That is the reasoning the iPhone rows needed and did not get, from the same panel on the same morning.
Astra is the other side of the coin. Kimi carried the high read there at 45% on the October 16 rung, arguing the disclosure came with "an unusually broad same-training-run clause" so that "any rebranded public derivative pays." Kimi's clause argument and DeepSeek's naming argument cannot both be the dominant effect, and the market had picked a side: traders thought both ship. Find that contradiction inside a panel before you trust its blend.
The NVIDIA row is on the table as a warning. It posts the widest raw gap on the sheet on a book that had traded $0.00 in its lifetime behind a seven-cent quote, and a gap against the midpoint of a market nobody has traded is a gap against an imaginary number.
Biggest Swings
The definition fights above moved zero points overnight. These are the boards that moved because something happened.
| Market | Path | Big hop (ET) | Expiry stamp (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim To Finish Top 20, St. Jude | 16¢ → 80¢ | Sat 11 a.m., +37 pts | Aug 29, 8 p.m. |
| The End Of Oak Street Above 84 Tomatometer | 33¢ → 96¢ | Sat 11 a.m., +15 pts | Mon, 10 a.m. |
| The End Of Oak Street Above 85 Tomatometer | 5¢ → 35¢ | Sat 3 p.m., +19 pts | Mon, 10 a.m. |
| Varvara Panshina, W75 Kursumlijska Banja R32 | 41¢ → 76¢ | Today 7 a.m., +22 pts | Today, 11 a.m. |
| Yelyzaveta Kotliar, W35 Bydgoszcz Final | 55¢ → 85¢ | Today 6 a.m., +14 pts | Today, 10 a.m. |
| Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Week 1 Starter | 24¢ → 15¢ | Sat 11 p.m., +14 pts | Sep 15, 10 a.m. |
Path is the whole 25-hour window ending at the price stamp; Big hop is the largest single hour inside it.
Tom Kim's top-20 contract did most of its move in one hour on Saturday morning and then printed inside a six-cent band for the next 20 hours. The board had traded $1,534,884 lifetime and the sheet flagged no linked story, so I will not attach a reason I cannot source. The structural read is the useful one: a top-20 finish is a position contract, so live scoring moves it far harder than an outright, and once the field sorts itself the same property makes it go still.
The End of Oak Street's Tomatometer ladder had rungs living in different worlds. The above-84 contract quoted 94/96¢. The above-85 contract, one point higher, quoted 30/34¢, and both settled on the same reading Monday morning. One point of Tomatometer was where the entire remaining uncertainty on the title lived.
The two tennis rows are each one match being played. Two sides of one contract crossing inside the same hour is the event itself, and there was nothing to trade in it.
Shedeur Sanders to start Week 1 for Cleveland spiked to 26¢ late Saturday night and was back to 14¢ an hour later. The book did about five percent of its lifetime volume that day, and a move that fully retraces before the next candle closes is thin-market noise. Anyone reading that spike as a roster signal was reading noise. Its expiry stamp was September 15.
What Settled On Aug 16
Fifty-three contracts on the sheet carried a settlement stamp inside the next day. This is the marquee slice, with yes-side bid and ask as of the 8:41 a.m. ET stamp. Each time is the contract's expiry stamp, which comes after the final whistle.
| Market | Category | Expiry stamp (ET) | Price | What decides it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City To Advance Past Arsenal | Soccer | 4:00 p.m. | 53/54¢ | Advancing and lifting the Community Shield, so a shootout counts |
| Arsenal And Manchester City Both To Score | Soccer | 2:00 p.m. | 57/58¢ | Both teams scoring in 90 minutes plus stoppage |
| Real Madrid To Beat Schalke | Soccer | 2:00 p.m. | 74/75¢ | 90 minutes plus stoppage, no extra time or penalties |
| Villarreal To Beat Santander | Soccer | 2:00 p.m. | 47/48¢ | 90 minutes plus stoppage, La Liga fixture |
| Tampa Bay To Beat Baltimore | Baseball | 3:15 p.m. | 57/58¢ | Game result |
| Boston To Beat Pittsburgh | Baseball | 4:35 p.m. | 53/54¢ | Game result |
| Bitcoin Above $63,249.99 At 5 P.m. | Crypto | 5:05 p.m. | 12/13¢ | The 60-second BRTI average, not a spot tick |
| Milwaukee At Los Angeles, First-Inning Run | Baseball | 7:10 p.m. | 46/47¢ | Either team scoring in the first |
| The End Of Oak Street Above 85 Tomatometer | Entertainment | Mon 10:00 a.m. | 30/34¢ | The score showing at 10 a.m. ET Monday |
| Donald Trump To Attend UFC 330 | Other | 10:00 a.m. | no bid / 1¢ | Whether he attended UFC 330 |
The Trump row was the biggest book on the table at $658,909 traded and the only one where the price had already told you the answer. No bid against a one-cent ask is a market that has settled the question in its own head and is waiting for the clock.
The two Community Shield rows do not settle on the same football. Manchester City to advance resolves on lifting the cup, so a shootout counts. Both teams to score resolves on 90 minutes plus stoppage, so a shootout does not. The Real Madrid row carried the same wording on a club friendly, where a level exhibition pays the draw side no matter what happens in a shootout afterward.
Does A Tomatometer Score Of Exactly 85 Count?
No. The rule reads "If The End of Oak Street has a Tomatometer score of above 85 on Aug 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes." The word is "above," so exactly 85 pays No on that rung, and the criterion is a reading at one instant, so a single review posting late Sunday night could cross the line with no adjustment afterward. That is why the 30/34¢ rung and the 94/96¢ rung were pricing one reading rather than two different futures.
New Listings
Five of the roughly two dozen boards that opened in the prior day, rated on structure rather than on a view about the outcome.
- Taylor Fritz To Beat Michelsen, ATP Cincinnati Round Of 64, 62/63¢. Worth A Look. Penny wide on $78,193 of flow within a day of listing, the best-structured new board on the sheet.
- Baltimore And Tampa Bay To Score More Than 7.5 Runs, 52/53¢. Worth A Look. $82,669 traded, penny wide. A total that finds the coin flip on its own is a market somebody has argued with on both sides.
- Miami's High Temperature To Land At 95 Or 96 Degrees, 25/28¢. Worth A Look. $17,564 on a three-cent quote. A band contract loses in both directions, so read the price as a width question rather than a hot-or-cold question.
- Los Angeles's High Temperature To Exceed 82 Degrees, No Bid / 1¢. Skip. $91,093 had traded on a contract nobody would bid for. Nothing structurally wrong with it and nothing to do with it.
- Ethereum Above $1,849.99 At 5 P.m., 95/97¢. Skip. The strike sat far enough below the market that the contract had already done its thinking.
Every new baseball board that opened that day was a game-level contract, five totals and three spreads, and not one player prop among them. The player layer on the exchange that Sunday was two Ryan Weathers strikeout rungs on four-figure books.
How this page works. The prices above were pulled from Kalshi's public API at 8:41 a.m. ET on August 16, 2026; the grades come from our public verdict ledger, where every AI-panel call is stored with its ask-time price and graded against the real settlement. Event contracts involve risk.
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More on this: Kalshi Picks Today: the live daily edition · Model Verdict Scoreboard: every graded AI-panel call · Tech Release Date Odds: the GPT-6 and Astra ladder · iPhone 18 Release Date Odds: the standard-model contract · FedEx St. Jude Top-20 Finishers Odds · How Kalshi Settlement Works
