FedEx St. Jude Top 20 Odds: The Kalshi Miss We Called First

Updated August 16, 2026, final round · 12 min read · Jake Hari

The FedEx St. Jude Championship gives Kalshi a cleaner board than the usual golf outright. Instead of one winner and 68 losers, the exchange lists a separate yes/no contract for every player: does this man finish in the top 20, ties included, over 72 holes at TPC Southwind. It is a placement question, not a lightning-strike one, and exactly the read the DFS and matchup crowd actually uses. We handed the whole 69-man board to six AI models on Thursday morning, let none of them see a single price, and asked each to score every player's top-20 chance from a fetched, dated brief on the field, the course, and current form.

Three rounds later the board has done what a top-20 board always does at the end: it has split into three groups that barely talk to each other. Seven contracts are trading at 90¢ or better, which is the market treating them as near-settled. Thirteen are at 5¢ or less, priced as all but gone. The tournament now lives in the narrow band in between, and that band is exactly where the panel's Thursday numbers were doing their real work, not at the top, where anyone can tell you Scottie Scheffler is safe. Every price-blind number the models published is still on this page, unedited, next to what the market says today. That includes the two rows they got badly wrong.

New to Kalshi event markets? Start here → how Kalshi's yes/no sports contracts work.

The Quick Answer

After 54 holes, Kalshi's top-20 board has Scottie Scheffler at 99.5¢, Sam Burns at 99.0¢ and Sungjae Im at 98.5¢ (the three men at the top of the leaderboard, all functionally settled), with exactly 20 of the 48 tightly-quoted contracts trading at 50¢ or better. The live question is the cluster from about 72¢ down to 46¢: Patrick Cantlay (72.0¢), Chris Gotterup (70.0¢), Wyndham Clark (66.5¢), Adam Scott (61.0¢), Matt Fitzpatrick (60.5¢), J.T. Poston (59.0¢), Nicolás Echavarría (58.0¢), Jordan Spieth (51.5¢), Xander Schauffele (48.5¢), Ludvig Åberg (47.5¢) and Nick Taylor (46.0¢). Of the five leans our price-blind panel named on Thursday, four are winning: it was +14 on Hideki Matsuyama (now 92.0¢), +9 on Viktor Hovland (82.0¢), +6 on Sam Burns (99.0¢), and it faded Cameron Young (now quoted 24–38¢). The fifth is the one it flagged in advance as its likely miss: Si Woo Kim, faded to 36% against a 46¢ market, now 91.0¢. Across the whole board, 18 of the panel's 31 leans of five points or more have moved its way. Every seat's number, the Sunday price beside it, and the board's biggest collapse are below.

Because this is a top-20 board, not a winner board, the prices do not add up to 100. Each contract stands on its own, and roughly 20 to 22 of them will pay out once ties are counted, so the whole sheet sums well past 2,000 cents on purpose. The story is not one favorite; it is where the line between a safe top-20 floor and a boom-or-bust week actually fell.

The Market At A Glance

Venue	Kalshi
The Event	"FedEx St. Jude Championship: Top 20 Finishers" (Kalshi event KXPGATOP20-FESJC26), a separate yes/no contract for each player, 69 contracts on the board
The Contract	Each market resolves YES if that player finishes in the top 20, including ties, in the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, 72-hole stroke play, no cut. Ties are why more than 20 contracts can settle YES.
When	August 13 to 16, 2026, TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee; the board settles when the final round is official, Sunday, August 16
Where It Stands	54 holes complete. Scottie Scheffler leads at 13 under, two clear of Sam Burns and Sungjae Im at 11 under. Jake Knapp and Tommy Fleetwood are next at 8 under. Robert MacIntyre withdrew after an opening 82; his contract has already settled NO.
Prices Below	Fetched mid-morning ET as of August 16, 2026, before the final-round leaders tee off. The "Now (Sun)" column is live; the "Open (Thu)" column and every model number are frozen exactly as published Thursday morning.

Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state to participate. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, in the full graded Model Verdict scoreboard.

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Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.

The Setup: A No-Cut Field Where The Floor Is The Story

Two structural facts drive every number below.

First, this is the FedExCup Playoffs opener, a 69-man field drawn from the top 70 in FedExCup points, with no cut, so everyone who stays in the field is scheduled for all four rounds. A withdrawal is the one exception, and it resolves a contract NO rather than refunding it. That matters more for a top-20 market than for an outright. In a cut event, a top-20 contract carries hidden weekend risk; here there is none, so a top-20 finish is a pure four-round consistency test against a uniformly elite field. There are no soft spots to feast on and no bubble players to pass, which is why even the safest names opened near 79¢ rather than in the 90s. It took three rounds of actual separation to push the top of this board into the high nineties, and that is the single most useful thing to understand about a top-20 market: it is slow to grant certainty and then grants it all at once.

Second, TPC Southwind is a par 70 that rewards precision over power: narrow fairways, water in play on 11 holes, and tiny Champion Bermuda greens around 4,300 square feet that put a premium on mid-iron control from 150 to 175 yards. Winning scores land in the mid-teens under par: Hideki Matsuyama won at 17 under in 2024, and Justin Rose took the 2025 title in a playoff at 16 under. An accuracy test spreads the field a little, which is exactly why the panel kept even the world number one under an 80% top-20 floor and handed real numbers to complete, unspectacular ballstrikers. Hold on to that second half, because the unspectacular ballstrikers are where this week was decided, and we will come back to them.

What Anchored The Board On Thursday

Three fetched facts defined where the individual numbers landed. They are printed here as the models saw them, before a shot was struck, because a graded page has to show the reasoning that produced the call and not a tidied-up version written after the fact.

• Scottie Scheffler Is The World Number One And Southwind Fits Him. He leads the FedExCup standings and owns a solo fourth in 2024 and a T3 in 2025 at TPC Southwind. A player that consistent, on a course that suits him, is as close to certainty as a no-cut top-20 board offers, and he is still short of it.
• Hideki Matsuyama Is The Hot Hand With A Trophy Here. He won this event in 2024, and came in off a T3 at the 3M Open and a T5 at the Rocket Classic, the kind of rolling form that travels to a course he has already conquered. This is where the panel and the market disagree most.
• Course History Sits With The Accurate Ballstrikers. Tommy Fleetwood owns three career top-5s at TPC Southwind and led here through 54 holes in 2025; Viktor Hovland was runner-up at Southwind in 2024; Collin Morikawa posted a T5 here in 2022; Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley are among the best in the field by scoring average at this course. Precision, not distance, is the fetchable edge in Memphis.

Here is the short version first, the 11 names the panel actually put its name on, graded, and then every model's raw number.

The Board, Graded Through 54 Holes

Prices are Kalshi cents, and on a top-20 board each cent reads directly as a probability: a 92¢ Matsuyama contract is an ~92% top-20 chance, with no overround to strip out because these contracts are independent rather than one shared pie. The Model blend is the mean of the six seats after a revision round, frozen at Thursday morning. Nothing in that column has been touched.

Golfer	Open (Thu)	Now (Sun)	Model blend	Where the call stands
Scottie Scheffler	79¢	99.5¢	76%	Leads at 13 under; market and panel agreed, market was braver
Hideki Matsuyama	50¢	92.0¢	64%	The panel's biggest lean, and its biggest win
Tommy Fleetwood	56¢	96.0¢	60%	T4 at 8 under; a quiet +4 lean that paid
Xander Schauffele	54¢	48.5¢	59%	Still live, but drifting the wrong way
Rory McIlroy	55¢	0.5¢	58%	T66 at 10 over; the whole board's worst read, ours included
Sam Burns	50¢	99.0¢	56%	T2 at 11 under; +6 lean, functionally settled
Viktor Hovland	44¢	82.0¢	53%	T10 at 6 under; +9 lean, winning
Matt Fitzpatrick	49¢	60.5¢	52%	T19 at 4 under; on the number, still to play
Collin Morikawa	48¢	2–15¢	52%	T43 at even; a clean miss by both sides
Cameron Young	50¢	24–38¢	39%	T33 through 54 holes; the fade is working
Si Woo Kim	46¢	91.0¢	36%	T6 at 7 under; the fade the panel pre-flagged as wrong, and it was

Ranges are shown where there is no tight two-sided quote.*

The row I keep coming back to is Rory McIlroy. The market opened him at 55¢ and the panel blended him to 58%. The two independent processes on this page agreed almost exactly, and both were about as wrong as it is possible to be. He shot his way to 10 over and T66, and his contract now sits at a formality of half a cent. One wrong row like that outweighs a hundred right ones, because it shows what a price-blind model and a market of humans have in common: neither of them can price a great player simply having a bad week.

Every Seat's Number

Every player on the board is listed below, the crawlable board in full, no names cut, sorted by where the contract trades now, with rows that have no tight two-sided market slotted by the midpoint of their range — a formality, not a price, and worth reading as such. Open (Thu) is the Kalshi price the morning of August 13; Now (Sun) is the live quote before the final round, shown as the bid/ask midpoint to one decimal, or as a bid–ask range where the book is wide. The Blend is the simple mean of the six seats after they read one another's reasoning and revised, frozen at Thursday. Lean is the rounded blend minus the Thursday price, that convention throughout: the call as it was made, not re-scored since.

Golfer	Open (Thu)	Now (Sun)	Fable	Opus	Sonnet	DeepSeek	GLM	Kimi	Blend	Lean
Scottie Scheffler	79¢	99.5¢	76	76	78	78	75	76	76%	−3
Sam Burns	50¢	99.0¢	52	51	54	60	60	59	56%	+6
Sungjae Im	30¢	98.5¢	34	38	34	35	35	36	35%	+5
Tommy Fleetwood	56¢	96.0¢	58	56	61	65	60	63	60%	+4
Hideki Matsuyama	50¢	92.0¢	58	59	63	68	68	65	64%	+14
Si Woo Kim	46¢	91.0¢	34	35	33	35	40	38	36%	−10
Jake Knapp	22¢	90.5¢	24	26	20	25	24	26	24%	+2
Brian Harman	24¢	86.0¢	30	34	31	32	36	33	33%	+9
Alex Noren	30¢	86.0¢	26	30	25	30	32	30	29%	−1
Viktor Hovland	44¢	82.0¢	50	47	53	58	56	53	53%	+9
Tom Kim	38¢	81.0¢	30	33	32	35	35	37	34%	−4
Kurt Kitayama	30¢	78.0¢	24	28	24	25	26	28	26%	−4
Patrick Cantlay	48¢	72.0¢	44	46	45	55	48	52	48%	0
Chris Gotterup	38¢	70.0¢	36	37	38	40	33	41	38%	0
Wyndham Clark	32¢	66.5¢	30	33	31	30	32	32	31%	−1
Adam Scott	24¢	61.0¢	26	31	27	35	32	33	31%	+7
Matt Fitzpatrick	49¢	60.5¢	50	48	51	60	53	52	52%	+3
J.T. Poston	26¢	59.0¢	28	31	25	30	30	31	29%	+3
Nicolás Echavarría	20¢	58.0¢	20	25	17	20	24	23	22%	+2
Jordan Spieth	26¢	51.5¢	30	32	29	35	30	32	31%	+5
Xander Schauffele	54¢	48.5¢	56	55	58	63	62	62	59%	+5
Ludvig Åberg	44¢	47.5¢	46	45	48	50	48	46	47%	+3
Nick Taylor	18¢	46.0¢	24	29	24	25	28	30	27%	+9
Jackson Koivun	40¢	42.5¢	32	30	29	30	28	34	30%	−10
J.J. Spaun	38¢	37–42¢	42	41	45	44	46	45	44%	+6
Maverick McNealy	36¢	39.0¢	32	34	31	30	28	35	32%	−4
Rickie Fowler	30¢	38.5¢	24	27	26	30	26	30	27%	−3
Keith Mitchell	26¢	32–37¢	24	29	22	25	26	28	26%	0
Jacob Bridgeman	28¢	33.0¢	26	25	20	20	26	27	24%	−4
Cameron Young	50¢	24–38¢	38	39	34	48	36	41	39%	−11
Gary Woodland	20¢	30.5¢	20	25	19	20	24	24	22%	+2
Russell Henley	42¢	29.5¢	46	47	46	50	50	48	48%	+6
Michael Thorbjornsen	36¢	1–55¢	28	30	24	25	28	33	28%	−8
Ryan Gerard	38¢	27.5¢	30	31	26	25	28	34	29%	−9
Sepp Straka	17¢	no bid; 55¢ ask	16	21	16	18	22	19	19%	+2
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	14¢	no bid; 55¢ ask	16	19	14	15	22	20	18%	+4
Alex Smalley	30¢	25.0¢	22	26	20	20	26	25	23%	−7
Pierceson Coody	12¢	25.0¢	18	23	17	15	24	23	20%	+8
Bud Cauley	26¢	21–27¢	26	28	21	20	26	25	24%	−2
Patrick Rodgers	8¢	22.5¢	18	24	17	20	24	25	21%	+13
Harry Hall	22¢	18–23¢	26	26	21	20	24	29	24%	+2
Justin Thomas	46¢	19.0¢	42	42	43	46	46	43	44%	−2
Ryo Hisatsune	22¢	no bid; 32¢ ask	22	23	20	20	24	24	22%	0
Michael Brennan	30¢	1–25¢	26	25	21	20	26	28	24%	−6
Ben Griffin	38¢	no bid; 25¢ ask	36	34	31	30	29	36	33%	−5
Michael Kim	24¢	no bid; 25¢ ask	24	28	20	20	24	24	23%	−1
Jordan L. Smith	26¢	no bid; 24¢ ask	22	24	18	20	22	24	22%	−4
Max Homa	16¢	11.5¢	22	25	21	25	24	25	24%	+8
Sam Stevens	16¢	no bid; 23¢ ask	24	26	18	20	24	24	23%	+7
Aaron Rai	34¢	6–15¢	38	40	42	40	44	42	41%	+7
Nicolai Højgaard	23¢	1–19¢	24	28	23	25	26	30	26%	+3
Collin Morikawa	48¢	2–15¢	48	48	51	58	52	54	52%	+4
Corey Conners	29¢	no bid; 12¢ ask	32	33	30	33	34	36	33%	+4
Kristoffer Reitan	24¢	no bid; 12¢ ask	20	22	17	15	22	24	20%	−4
Harris English	28¢	no bid; 5¢ ask	34	38	35	35	38	36	36%	+8
Matti Schmid	12¢	2.0¢	20	24	17	15	24	25	21%	+9
Shane Lowry	32¢	1.5¢	34	38	37	40	40	38	38%	+6
Min Woo Lee	32¢	1.5¢	28	33	32	30	32	34	32%	0
Eric Cole	26¢	1.5¢	22	25	21	25	28	27	25%	−1
Aldrich Potgieter	8¢	1.5¢	20	23	17	15	22	24	20%	+12
Rory McIlroy	55¢	0.5¢	58	53	58	63	58	58	58%	+3
Justin Rose	30¢	0.5¢	32	34	33	35	38	39	35%	+5
Akshay Bhatia	27¢	0.5¢	30	33	27	30	30	33	30%	+3
Sahith Theegala	22¢	0.5¢	24	30	24	30	28	30	28%	+6
Ryan Fox	20¢	0.5¢	24	28	22	20	22	27	24%	+4
Alex Fitzpatrick	30¢	0.5¢	22	24	20	20	22	25	22%	−8
Matthew McCarty	18¢	0.5¢	20	22	17	15	24	22	20%	+2
Ricky Castillo	18¢	0.5¢	18	21	17	15	24	22	20%	+2
Robert MacIntyre	38¢	settled NO	34	37	31	35	32	37	34%	−4

A note on the panel. Our standard Model Verdict lineup runs eight seats. Two were unavailable for this run, so this board is scored by six: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, DeepSeek, GLM and Kimi. All six scored the field the morning of August 13, 2026 without seeing any prices, working from a fetched, dated summary of the field, the course, and each contender's recent form and Memphis history. They then read one another's anonymized reasoning and revised. Every model's number also lands in our back-tested Model Verdict ledger, where past price-blind calls are graded against settled results so the method is measured, not just asserted.

More Live Boards From The Same Panel

The same price-blind panel scores the biggest live boards on Kalshi. Nearest neighbors while you read Memphis:

More live boards from the same panel: FedEx St. Jude Championship winner (same field, outright: Scottie Scheffler 66.5¢, Sam Burns 16.5¢, Sungjae Im 9.9¢) · 2027 Pro Football champion (the Los Angeles Rams top the board near 16¢). Outright prices fetched Sunday, August 16, 2026.

Scottie Scheffler: The One Row Nobody Learned Anything From

Scheffler was the one contract the market and every seat treated the same way. Kalshi opened him at 79¢ to finish top 20, the panel blended him to about 76%, and he now trades at 99.5¢ while leading the tournament at 13 under. The Thursday case was not complicated: world number one, FedExCup leader, and a Southwind record (solo fourth in 2024, T3 in 2025) that said the accuracy test suits him. What kept even him under an 80% floor was the structure of the event, a no-cut field of the year's 69 best players, on a course where one wayward day near the water drops anyone outside 20.

He did not have that day, so the row settled the boring way, and that is the point worth making about it. A −2 lean on the field's best player is not where a price-blind panel earns anything. If the panel is useful, it is useful further down, and further down is where it both won and lost.

Hideki Matsuyama: The Panel's Biggest Lean, And Its Biggest Win

If there was one place the panel planted its flag, it was Hideki Matsuyama. The market opened him at 50¢, a coin flip tied to a knot of names in the middle of the board. The panel blended him to about 64%, a plus-14 lean and the largest disagreement anywhere on the sheet. The reasoning was course history stacked on top of live form: Matsuyama won this event in 2024, and arrived off a T3 at the 3M Open and a T5 at the Rocket Classic. Five of the six seats put him at 58% or higher, and two pushed past 65%.

Through 54 holes he sits T6 at 7 under, and his contract trades at 92.0¢, a 42-cent move in the panel's direction. Bigger moves happened elsewhere on the board — Sungjae Im ran 30¢ to 98.5¢ and Brian Harman 24¢ to 86.0¢, both on smaller +6 and +8 leans — but this was the row the panel argued hardest for, and the argument held. Understand the shape of that win, though: the models did not find a hidden player. They found a well-known player whose price was anchored to the flat middle of a 69-man board, and said the anchor was too low.

Cameron Young And Si Woo Kim: One Fade Right, One Fade Wrong

The two fades the panel argued out loud both ran against names the market clearly trusted, and they have split cleanly.

Cameron Young opened at 50¢; the panel blended him to about 39%, an 11-point fade. This was not the models missing his ceiling, because Young has two wins in 2026 and a runner-up at The Open. It was the models reading his profile as boom-or-bust and leaning on his most recent result, a T61 at the Wyndham Championship, as evidence that a placement floor is not his strength. Through 54 holes he is T33, and his contract has no tight quote left at all: bid 24¢, ask 38¢. The market is paying for a Sunday charge; the panel doubted the floor; with 18 holes to go the fade is ahead, and it is still very much live.

Si Woo Kim was the fade we told you to distrust, and you should have. The market had him at 46¢; the panel blended him to about 36%, a 10-point gap that looked light at the time given how Kim's 2026 had gone: a runner-up at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, a third at the RBC Heritage, T6 at The Open, and top-10s stacked through the season. The published version of this article carried an editor's note saying so: the panel's number did not fully credit the T3, and the market's higher price had the better of the recent evidence. Kim is now T6 at 7 under and his contract trades at 91.0¢, a 45-cent move straight through the fade. The note was right and the model was wrong, which is the only reason the note was worth printing.

Where The Panel Changed Its Mind

In the panel's revision round on Thursday morning, every seat read the others' anonymized reasoning and could change its number. Three arcs tell the story of what moved, and all three now have a result attached.

Moved most on Matsuyama (58→63): 31-event cut streak, five straight top-15s, proven 2024 champ — my number underweighted red-hot proven course form versus the other seats. — Sonnet

Fleetwood (+8 to 63): verified strong recent finishes, the 2025 Southwind 54-hole lead, and an elite accuracy fit persuaded me his top-20 floor far exceeds my earlier 55. — Kimi

One seat revised the other way, cutting a name it decided it had priced on reputation rather than evidence:

Lowered Justin Rose most (48→35): defending champion, but a missed cut at The Open and patchy form — course fit alone can't carry a top-20 floor without current form behind it. — DeepSeek

The net of it: the seats converged upward on the proven-form-plus-course-history names (Matsuyama, Fleetwood, Hovland) and trimmed the players whose case was mostly a good week on this course a year ago. That instinct held up. Matsuyama went 50¢ to 92.0¢, Fleetwood 56¢ to 96.0¢, Hovland 44¢ to 82.0¢. The three names the revision round pushed up are three of the board's biggest gainers. DeepSeek's cut of Justin Rose, the defending champion, from 48 to 35 was the right instinct and still not nearly enough: Rose's contract has fallen from 30¢ to half a cent, and the blend finished at 35%, five points above a market that was itself far too high. The seat moved the right way; the panel still lost the row.

What The Final Round Still Decides

Seven contracts at 90¢ or better and 13 at 5¢ or less carry almost no information left to trade on. The tournament's remaining information sits in a band of about a dozen names, and three things move it over 18 holes.

• The Line For 20Th Is A Moving Target, Not A Fixed Score. Count down the leaderboard and 21 players currently sit inside the top 20 with ties: six of them bunched at 5 under, and three more (Matt Fitzpatrick, Nick Taylor, Jordan Spieth) tied for 19th at 4 under. The bubble is one shot deep. Hence Spieth at 51.5¢ and Taylor at 46.0¢ reading as true coin flips rather than mild favorites, and hence the group a stroke back at 3 under (Jackson Koivun at 42.5¢, Rickie Fowler at 38.5¢, J.J. Spaun at a 37–42¢ quote, Jacob Bridgeman at 33.0¢) is priced like a live chance rather than a longshot.
• The Chasers With A Real Sunday Gear. Cameron Young, T33 and quoted 24–38¢, and Xander Schauffele at 48.5¢ are the two names with the most obvious scoring ceiling still outside or barely inside the number. A 64 from either resolves the panel's Young fade against us and rescues its Schauffele lean.
• Conditions. A firm, breezy TPC Southwind protects the players already inside the number and strands the chasers; a soft, receptive setup compresses the leaderboard and turns the 40-to-60-cent band into the day's real volatility.

One thing that will not change: the model numbers on this page. They were published Thursday morning and they stay exactly as they were, win or lose, because the whole arrangement depends on it.

Settlement Timeline

Marker	Status
Round 1	Thursday, August 13, 2026 — complete
Round 2	Friday, August 14, 2026 — complete
Round 3	Saturday, August 15, 2026 — complete; Scheffler leads at 13 under
Final Round And Settlement	Sunday, August 16, 2026 — in progress
Cut	None; every player still in the field is scheduled for four rounds. Robert MacIntyre withdrew after Round 1 and his contract settled NO
Next Catalyst	BMW Championship, the following week (top 50 in FedExCup points advance)

This page is re-scored whenever the story moves, with the "prices as of" stamp above carrying the evidence, and the live column refreshes as the market trades. Once the last putt drops it converts to a graded retrospective that scores every number here against the actual result.

The Dark Horses, Four Days Later

Thursday's version of this section named the single-digit and mid-board contracts where the panel's separation showed up most. Here is what happened to each, which is the only honest way to run a dark-horse list.

• Patrick Rodgers (8¢ Open, ~21% Blend, Now 22.5¢). The biggest positive lean on the board in percentage terms: every seat put a journeyman grinder's top-20 chance at more than double the market's number, reading the no-cut format as a leveler. His price has nearly tripled and he is still short of the number, so the lean was directionally right and materially incomplete.
• Brian Harman (24¢ Open, ~33% Blend, Now 86.0¢) And Nick Taylor (18¢ Open, ~27% Blend, Now 46.0¢). Here is the callback promised earlier, about the complete, unspectacular ballstrikers a precision course rewards. Harman is T6 at 7 under and Taylor is tied for 19th; between them they are the clearest evidence for the panel's central thesis this week. Add Jake Knapp, a 22¢ contract the panel barely leaned on, now 90.5¢ at T4, and the pattern is unmistakable: TPC Southwind paid the steady, not the famous.
• Max Homa (16¢ Open, ~24% Blend, Now 11.5¢) And Sam Stevens (16¢ Open, ~23% Blend, Now No Bid, 23¢ Ask). Both drifted the wrong way. A seven-point overweight on a quietly complete profile is a reasonable prior and, this week, simply did not cash.
• Aldrich Potgieter (8¢ Open, ~20% Blend, Now 1.5¢). The young bomber the panel credited on raw ceiling. On a course that punishes the wild, the ceiling never arrived. He is arguably the one dark horse whose Thursday case contradicted the article's own course read.

The Traps: Where The Table Can Mislead

Transparency matters more than a clean story, so here is where these numbers would fool you.

• Most Rows On This Board Are A Pass, And That Is The Correct Answer. Seven contracts are already at 90¢ or better and 13 are at 5¢ or less; there is little left to do with any of them. A page like this exists to find the handful of prices worth arguing with, not to manufacture a position on 69 golfers. If a row does not look mispriced to you, the disciplined read is no action, not a smaller one.
• A 58% Hit Rate Over Four Days Is Not An Edge, And We Are Not Going To Pretend It Is. Across all 31 leans of five points or more published on August 13, 18 have moved the panel's way as of Sunday morning. Weight that honestly: the tail of a top-20 board collapses toward zero as the event resolves, so a positive lean on a longshot is structurally likely to lose even when the reasoning was sound. The headline calls did much better than the full board did, and both numbers are printed here on purpose.
• The Model Blend Column Is A Thursday Artifact, Not A Live Forecast. It has not been re-run since the first tee shot. Do not read a 24% blend next to a 90.5¢ price as a live disagreement. It is a four-day-old opinion sitting next to a nearly-settled fact.
• These Are Independent Contracts, Not One Pie. Do not "de-vig" this board by dividing prices by their total. Each top-20 contract stands alone; the sheet's prices sum well past 2,000 cents because roughly 20 to 22 players finish top 20 once ties are counted, and that is the design, not an overround to strip out.
• Twenty Of The 69 Contracts Still Have No Tight Two-Sided Quote. Rows shown as a range or as "no bid" are exactly that: a formality, not a price you can transact at. Michael Thorbjornsen's 1¢-to-55¢ spread is not a 28% chance; it is an absence of a market.

The DFS Placement Angle: Reading The Top-20 Market

For the PGA DFS crowd, this is the more useful Kalshi board of the week, and Sunday is when it earns that. A top-20 contract is a cleaner read on the placement and leverage that actually decide DFS tournaments than a winner-take-all outright is, because it prices a player's floor rather than his best-week ceiling. On a final-round or showdown slate, the live column above is doing a job no projection sheet does: it is telling you what the money thinks each man's finishing position is worth, updated to the last trade.

Read it in three bands. The seven contracts at 90¢ or better — Scheffler, Burns, Im, Fleetwood, Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Knapp — are the market naming the chalk. Those are the players a showdown field will converge on, which makes them the expensive, low-leverage core. The 46-to-72¢ band is the useful middle: Cantlay at 72.0¢, Gotterup at 70.0¢, Clark at 66.5¢ and Adam Scott at 61.0¢ are all priced as more likely than not to hold a top-20 slot, but none carry the name recognition that drives roster rates. Call that a balanced piece: market-implied confidence the crowd has not repriced.

The third band is where leverage lives, and the arithmetic is worth doing explicitly. Rickie Fowler at 38.5¢ is the market saying roughly two in five that he holds a top-20 finish. Ask yourself whether his final-round roster rate will be under 40%, because if it is, you are getting a better price on the contract than on the lineup slot. Jacob Bridgeman at 33.0¢ is the same trade with less name equity attached. Cameron Young, T33 with a 24¢ bid and a 38¢ ask, is the extreme version: no tight market at all, which is the honest signal that nobody wants to price a player who needs a 64 to matter.

If you are building for the same field, Stokastic's PGA DFS Sims model every player's full finishing distribution, and our PGA DFS picks for today turn that into a slate plan.

How To Read These Prices

The models can tell you where they part from the crowd, but the number in front of you still has to be read in context.

Work an example. Hideki Matsuyama opened at a 50¢ top-20 price. On this board that reads straight through as about a 50% chance he finishes top 20, with no division and no overround, because each contract settles on its own player and nobody else's. The panel's 64% said the models saw a proven Memphis winner in hot form as closer to two-in-three than a coin flip. He is now T6 at 7 under and the contract trades at 92.0¢, so the 42 cents between those two numbers is what a correct read was actually worth, and it only became collectable by holding through three rounds. To turn any of these cents into fair odds you can actually shop, the habit is the same one behind turning Kalshi's cents into real odds: the price is the probability, and the probability is the number to beat. The comparison to make is against a sportsbook's finishing-position market (top-5, top-10, top-20), not against an each-way price. Each-way is a UK and offshore convention and effectively no US sportsbook carries it, so finishing-position props are the US-available equivalent and the only apples-to-apples check on a Kalshi top-20 contract.

A few honest points before reading too much into any number above:

• Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. You must be 18 or older and located in an eligible state, and availability varies by state and can change.
• Liquidity And Spread. This is a 69-contract board on a single tournament, and 20 of those contracts have no tight two-sided quote at all, so getting in or out at your number is not always possible.
• A Live Final Round. These prices were captured Sunday morning, August 16, 2026, before the leaders teed off. Eighteen holes of golf will move a dozen of them substantially, and the board settles when the round is official.
• Not Advice. Everything here is analysis for information, not a recommendation to trade.

The Bottom Line

The thesis this page opened with on Thursday was that a no-cut top-20 board pays the players with a proven floor, not the ones with the loudest ceiling. Three rounds later that is close to the literal leaderboard. Jake Knapp, Brian Harman, Alex Noren and Kurt Kitayama, four names the market opened between 22¢ and 30¢, are all trading at 78¢ or better. Rory McIlroy, a 55¢ contract and a 58% model number, is at 10 over and half a cent. Precision travelled; reputation did not.

The panel's own scorecard reads the same way. It won its loudest call, Matsuyama at plus-14, by 42 cents. It lost the one it publicly warned you about, the Si Woo Kim fade, by 45. Across every lean of five points or more it is 18 for 31, which is barely better than a coin flip dressed up as a system unless you look at where the misses cluster, almost entirely in the longshot tail that a resolving board drags to zero regardless of who was right. That is the read of four days of evidence, and it is the reason every number on this page is still printed exactly as it was published. Every call here gets scored on our graded Model Verdict scoreboard; if you are playing the same field in DFS, our free expert picks and the Kalshi golf picks hub are the next stops.

Verdicts generated August 13, 2026, and frozen since. "Open (Thu)" prices are from the morning of August 13, 2026, before Round 1; "Now (Sun)" prices and the outright board were fetched Sunday, August 16, 2026, before the final round. Leaderboard positions are through 54 holes. Panel: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, DeepSeek, GLM and Kimi, price-blind, after one revision round.

Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.

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