Eight NFL teams are still undefeated after Week 2, Baltimore is not one of them, and only one of the eight is an underdog on Sunday. The Ravens, the favorite on this board since it opened and the pick of our price-blind AI panel, lost 24-17 at home to New Orleans, and the seven other teams that went out with them included the Bears, the Lions, the Giants and the Steelers.
Prices on Kalshi as of September 24, 2026, 8:45 a.m. CT, quoted as the price to buy Yes; the panel's numbers are its September 8 run and do not move. A Yes contract pays $1 if the team is the last one to lose, so the price in cents reads as the chance.
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Who Is Still Undefeated
| Team | Record, point differential | Kalshi, Sept. 24 (bid / ask) | Week 3 | Bye | Sept. 14 ask | AI panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2-0, +24 | 25¢ / 26¢ | at Miami, KC -10.5 | 5 | 8¢ | 8.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | 2-0, +15 | 20¢ / 21¢ | vs Chargers, BUF -7 | 7 | 10¢ | 3.5% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2-0, +42 | 14¢ / 15¢ | vs Arizona, SF -8.5 | 8 | 12¢ | 3.9% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2-0, +27 | 13¢ / 14¢ | at Washington, SEA -7 | 11 | 7¢ | 4.9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2-0, +20 | 11¢ / 12¢ | at Pittsburgh, CIN -3.5 | 6 | 8¢ | 1.4% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2-0, +23 | 11¢ / 12¢ | at Tampa Bay, MIN -1.5 | 6 | 3¢ | 2.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-0, +6 | 6¢ / 7¢ | at Chicago, Monday, PHI -4.5 | 10 | 4¢ | 7.4% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2-0, +26 | 2¢ / 3¢ | at New Orleans, NO -3 | 13 | 1¢ | 0.5% |
Read the Week 3 column next to the price column and the board explains itself. Kansas City is the biggest favorite of the eight this weekend, ten and a half points at Miami, and it carries the earliest bye of anyone alive, so it costs 26¢ (+285). Las Vegas has the third-best point differential on the board, plus 26 on two wins over the Dolphins and Chargers, and asks three cents, because it is the one survivor the sportsbooks expect to lose on Sunday. Minnesota is the closest thing to a coin flip, a point and a half at Tampa Bay, and trades at 12. The other 24 contracts are dead.
The Rule That Decides This
The contract settles on the team that stays undefeated longest, measured by the week of its first loss, and three clauses in that sentence move real probability. A tie is not a loss, so 5-0-1 is still undefeated here. A bye week is a free survival week: a team on a bye is treated as still undefeated that week, and if the other last undefeated team loses in that same week, the bye team wins outright. And two teams that lose in the same week are tied, which splits the payout, $1 divided by the number of tied teams. That has happened in three of the last 16 seasons.
Sixteen Seasons Of How Long This Lasts
Computed from completed game results for every regular season from 2010 through 2025. The column that matters is the last week in which any NFL team still had zero losses.
| Season | Last week with an unbeaten team | Team or teams that got there |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4 | Kansas City |
| 2011 | 14 | Green Bay |
| 2012 | 9 | Atlanta |
| 2013 | 10 | Kansas City |
| 2014 | 4 | Arizona, Cincinnati |
| 2015 | 15 | Carolina |
| 2016 | 6 | Minnesota |
| 2017 | 5 | Kansas City |
| 2018 | 8 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2019 | 9 | San Francisco |
| 2020 | 12 | Pittsburgh |
| 2021 | 7 | Arizona |
| 2022 | 9 | Philadelphia |
| 2023 | 5 | Philadelphia, San Francisco |
| 2024 | 10 | Kansas City |
| 2025 | 4 | Buffalo, Philadelphia |
Median Week 8.5, mean 8.2, range Week 4 to Week 15. The average number of unbeaten teams still standing after Week 4 across those 16 seasons is 2.6. After Week 5 it is 1.8, and after Week 6 it is 1.3. Kansas City, with four of the 16 titles on this list, is the franchise that keeps finishing it.
Who Went Out In Week 2
Eight teams lost their first game on Sunday and Monday, and three of them were the top of the September 14 board. Baltimore, 18 cents then and the panel's 11.8 percent favorite, lost 24-17 to New Orleans at home, one game into the soft seven-game stretch that was its whole case. Detroit, 9 cents, lost 41-31 in Buffalo. Chicago, 8 cents after 59 points at Carolina, scored three against Minnesota. The Giants lost 28-6 in Los Angeles, Pittsburgh 20-3 in New England, Jacksonville 20-13 in Denver, Arizona 31-7 to Seattle, and the Jets 20-17 in overtime to Green Bay.
The panel's two biggest fades in Week 1, the Rams and Houston, both went out in the opening weekend. Its favorite went out in the second. What is left at the top is its second choice: Kansas City, 8.5 percent on September 8, the highest number any seat gave a team other than Baltimore, on the same two facts the market is now paying 26 cents for.
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Kansas City: The Favorite With The Earliest Bye
The Chiefs beat Denver 31-10 and then needed overtime to get past Indianapolis 33-30 on Monday night, an evening in which Patrick Mahomes threw 47 times for 382 yards and three touchdowns, Kenneth Walker III ran 24 times for 117, and Kansas City put up 523 yards and still had to come from behind. That is a 2-0 built on the offense, plus 24 on 64 points scored, and the market has more than tripled the contract since September 14 on the strength of it and the calendar.
The calendar is the case. Miami on Sunday is 0-2 and has been outscored 62-26. After that comes the Week 5 bye, the earliest of any team still alive, and no franchise has won this contract more often. In a season like 2010, 2014 or 2025, when the field collapsed in Week 4, a Kansas City team that is 4-0 going into its Week 5 bye wins without playing if everyone else loses that week. That is what 26 cents buys, and it is what the panel's 8.5 was reaching for before the Ravens' path looked cleaner.
Opus wrote the compounding math for Baltimore on September 8, and it is worth keeping on the page as the thing that did not happen:
"I price those roughly .60/.75/.62/.80/.62/.68/.72, which leaves ~14% alive after Week 5 and ~7% after Week 7, well clear of any other team, before the first genuine test at Buffalo in Week 8."
Opus
The Ravens lost the second game in that chain, at home, to a team Opus had at .75. A 14 percent chance of surviving to Week 5 was never a promise that the first two would go through, and this is the contract where the difference costs everything.
The Byes That Can Win It From Here
Five of the 16 seasons in the ledger ended in Week 4 or Week 5, and a team sitting on a bye in the week the field collapses wins outright without playing. Kansas City's bye is Week 5. Cincinnati and Minnesota are off in Week 6, the week the historical survivor count drops to 1.3, and both trade at 12 cents, the cheapest way onto a bye that matters. Buffalo sits out Week 7 and San Francisco Week 8, which is the median. Philadelphia, Seattle and Las Vegas have byes in Week 10, 11 and 13, which in most seasons is after this contract is over; the Raiders would have to win ten straight to reach theirs.
What Decides Week 3
Two games carry most of it. Minnesota at Tampa Bay at 4:05 p.m. ET is the smallest spread on the survivor slate, a point and a half, and the Vikings' 12-cent contract is the one that moves most on Sunday either way: a win puts them at 3-0 with a Week 6 bye ahead, a loss ends it. Las Vegas at New Orleans at 4:25 is the only game in which a survivor is the underdog, three points, and the Raiders' contract has already been priced as though the loss has happened. Cincinnati, three and a half points at Pittsburgh, is the other one under a touchdown. The Eagles close the week in Chicago on Monday night, favored by four and a half against a Bears team whose quarterback, Caleb Williams, is listed doubtful on ESPN's injury page.
If the form holds, six or seven of the eight get through, and the contract goes into Week 4 with Kansas City sitting a game from its bye. If Minnesota and Las Vegas both lose, the first two contracts to go are the two the market already priced to go, and nothing above 12 cents moves. This page is re-scored when the story moves.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
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