TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Los Angeles D (97%), Arizona (1.1%), San Diego (0.9%). Every verdict below was made price-blind from live fetched data, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
Ninety-nine cents in July is the crowd saying a division race is finished with 60 games left. The fetched standings mostly agree — the Dodgers' lead is enormous — but the panel's job on a board like this is calibration at the extreme: is the residual risk really one percent, or does 'anything can happen in baseball' price closer to three or four? On our scoreboard, the difference between 96% and 99% is exactly the kind of thing that gets graded.
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What The Models Were Given
Each model saw the complete live NL West standings fetched from MLB StatsAPI at generation time. All eight seats returned a verdict on every outcome in this board.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Los Angeles D: market 99¢, AI blend 97% (2 points below the crowd). Claude Fable: "Dodgers lead by 12 games with ~56 left; historical comeback odds from that deficit are minimal."
San Diego: market 2¢, AI blend 0.9% (1 points below the crowd). ChatGPT (GPT-5.5): "San Diego is 14 games behind a 67-39 Dodgers team with roughly 56 games left, requiring an extreme collapse plus surge."
Arizona: market 2¢, AI blend 1.1% (1 points below the crowd). Kimi K3: "Arizona trails Los Angeles by 12 games with about 56 left, requiring an extreme Diamondbacks surge plus a historic Dodgers collapse."
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles D | 99¢ | 97% | 99% | 96% | 96% | 97% | 98% | 97% | 96% | 99% |
| Arizona | 2¢ | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| San Diego | 2¢ | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| San Francisco | 1¢ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Colorado | 1¢ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 1,693 graded calls · Claude Fable 85% on 331 graded calls · Claude Opus 86% on 382 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 363 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 1,718 graded calls · GLM 80% on 1,874 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 1,863 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 1,877 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated July 27, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
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