TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Los Angeles D (97%), Arizona (1.1%), San Diego (0.9%). Every verdict below was made price-blind from live fetched data, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
Ninety-nine cents in July is the crowd saying a division race is finished with sixty games left. The fetched standings mostly agree — the Dodgers' lead is enormous — but the panel's job on a board like this is calibration at the extreme: is the residual risk really one percent, or does 'anything can happen in baseball' price closer to three or four? On our scoreboard, the difference between 96% and 99% is exactly the kind of thing that gets graded.
What The Models Were Given
Each model saw the complete live NL West standings fetched from MLB StatsAPI at generation time. All eight seats returned a verdict on every outcome in this board.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Los Angeles D: market 99¢, AI blend 97% (2 points below the crowd). Claude Fable: "Dodgers lead by 12 games with ~56 left; historical comeback odds from that deficit are minimal."
San Diego: market 2¢, AI blend 0.9% (1 points below the crowd). ChatGPT (GPT-5.5): "San Diego is 14 games behind a 67-39 Dodgers team with roughly 56 games left, requiring an extreme collapse plus surge."
Arizona: market 2¢, AI blend 1.1% (1 points below the crowd). Kimi K3: "Arizona trails Los Angeles by 12 games with about 56 left, requiring an extreme Diamondbacks surge plus a historic Dodgers collapse."
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles D | 99¢ | 97% | 99% | 96% | 96% | 97% | 98% | 97% | 96% | 99% |
| Arizona | 2¢ | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| San Diego | 2¢ | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| San Francisco | 1¢ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Colorado | 1¢ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Model estimates generated July 27, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
What data did the models see?
Each model saw the complete live NL West standings fetched from MLB StatsAPI at generation time.
