Kalshi prices, volume and trade history as of Saturday, September 5, 2026, shortly after 5 a.m. ET, pulled from Kalshi's public market data. Sportsbook lines come from the OddsShopper live odds board at the same time. Prelims start at noon ET and the main card at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with Page vs Ruziboev two fights before the main event. Every number here moves before the walkouts, so re-check the live quote before acting on any of it.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's UFC Paris market has Michael "Venom" Page at 64 cents bid, 65 ask to beat Nursulton Ruziboev on Saturday, September 5, with Ruziboev at 35 bid, 36 ask. In payout terms, a 36-cent Ruziboev contract turns $100 into about $278 before fees if the Uzbek wins and nothing if he does not. The exchange and the sharp sportsbooks agree on this one to within a cent, while the 20 books disagree with each other by nearly four, so the real reading is in the seven method-of-victory contracts Kalshi added on Wednesday: what a 41-cent Page-by-decision price says about a 39-year-old who has never finished anyone in the UFC, the 24,900 contracts of Page-by-knockout someone bought in a single second on Friday night anyway, and why the best number on the sportsbook board beats the exchange on both sides once fees are counted.
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A Favorite Who Wins On The Cards, A Dog Who Never Sees Them
The middleweight bout on Saturday's main card at Accor Arena, two fights below the Hooker vs Parnasse main event, pairs two fighters who almost never end up in the same kind of fight. Page has gone the distance in all five of his UFC bouts, and his average fight lasts 11 minutes and 21 seconds. Ruziboev has 37 professional wins, 34 of them early, and his average fight lasts 7 minutes and 21 seconds. A winner market collapses those four minutes into one number. This week the exchange started selling the four minutes themselves, and that is where the interesting prices sit.
The fight is priced in the mid-60s, but the way it ends is priced in the teens, twenties and forties, and one of those numbers moved on Friday night in a way the winner market did not. The price needs a reason first, and the reason is the first thing sharp MMA handicappers check: who has each man actually beaten? If you are new to how a Kalshi price works, what a Kalshi price actually means covers the mechanics in five minutes, and the rest of this page assumes it.
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What 65 Cents Is Really Pricing: The Man Nobody Hits
Start with Page, because the favorite's price is a statement about his defense before it is a statement about his offense. UFC.com's fighter stats have him absorbing 1.51 significant strikes a minute while landing 2.28. Nobody hits him much: that absorption rate is less than a third of the 4.94 a minute Dan Hooker takes two fights later on the same card. He lands 58% of what he throws and blocks 62% of what comes back, a switch-stance point fighter with a 79-inch reach who spends whole rounds at a distance where only he can score. The knockouts on his record, 13 of them, came mostly in Bellator, where he holds the welterweight division's marks for stoppage and knockout wins. Since he arrived in the UFC in March 2024 he is 4-1, with all five fights going to a unanimous decision.
The names matter more than the count. His UFC wins came over Kevin Holland, Shara Magomedov, Jared Cannonier (a former middleweight title challenger) and Sam Patterson, and his one loss was on the scorecards to Ian Machado Garry at welterweight. That is a résumé with a former title challenger on it, which is the first rule of pricing a fight: credit fighters who fought the best, discount records built on weaker names. Page's number is being built on the stronger résumé.
The counterargument is his birth certificate. He is 39, and the standing rule with aging fighters is that the chin goes before the skills do. The rebuttal is the absorption rate above: a man who takes 1.51 strikes a minute has not been spending his chin, and 39 with that mileage is a different 39 from Hooker's 36. Buyers have chosen the rebuttal, and the price in the mid-60s is the evidence.
Can Ruziboev Get It There?
Now the other side, where the question the price forces is the oldest one in MMA handicapping: can the grappler actually get the fight where he wins it? Ruziboev's 37-9-2 is a finisher's record, 13 knockouts and 21 submissions against three decisions, which is where that seven-minute average comes from. In five UFC wins he has stopped four men, most recently Andrey Pulyaev by first-round submission in June. If this fight hits the floor, the submission column says what happens next.
The takedown numbers say how often it hits the floor. Ruziboev lands 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes at 20% accuracy, which works out to roughly seven attempts a fight to land one, against a Page who stops 70% of the attempts he faces. He shoots plenty; most of the shots go nowhere, and Page's defense is built to keep it that way. On the feet the differential runs the wrong way: he lands 2.38 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.68, blocking only 49% of what comes at him, and he stands 6-foot-5 with a 76-inch reach, three inches shorter than Page's despite the two-inch height edge. So the path is repeated entries against a 70% stuff rate until one lands late, or a scramble off a Page miss, and the price of that path is the 16-cent submission contract below.
Then the level-of-competition rule cuts the other way. Ruziboev's five UFC wins came over Brunno Ferreira, Sedriques Dumas, Eric McConico, Dustin Stoltzfus and Pulyaev, none of them ranked. The one time he stepped up, against Joaquin Buckley at welterweight in May 2024, he lost a unanimous decision. He has never beaten a ranked UFC opponent, and Page has beaten a former title challenger. The 36 cents is the market's price on a fighter who finishes 92% of the fights he wins meeting a UFC opponent who has never been stopped inside the Octagon.
Which is exactly the split the exchange started selling this week, after the winner market had already picked a side.
The Winner Board, And The Friday Afternoon Reprice
Kalshi lists the fight under the event ticker KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP05PAGRUZ: one yes/no contract per fighter, each paying $1 to the winner's side and nothing to the other. The winner board opened on August 30 and has traded like a main-card fight should.
| Contract | Bid | Ask | Last Trade | 24-Hour Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 64¢ | 65¢ | 65¢ | ~63,100 contracts | ~112,900 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 35¢ | 36¢ | 36¢ | ~80,900 contracts | ~143,200 |
Read the Ruziboev row first, because the underdog's contract is the deep one. Roughly 155,000 contracts have traded on the Ruziboev side lifetime against about 118,000 on Page, and on Kalshi selling Ruziboev is the same position as buying Page, so the heavier row is where this fight's liquidity lives. The spread on both contracts is one cent, the minimum tick, so the quote cannot get tighter.
The trade history says when the price was made. Through Thursday the Page contract sat in a 59-to-61-cent band, and the two biggest prints on the winner board over the last two days were both purchases of Page at those prices: about 20,000 contracts at 60 cents at 8:34 p.m. ET Thursday, then about 17,600 at 61 cents at 6:14 a.m. Friday, with a matching sale of 16,600 Ruziboev contracts at 39 cents 29 seconds later. Same trader or not, the tape cannot say, but it was the same position twice.
The reprice itself came Friday afternoon. Across the 4 p.m. hour ET, Page traded from 60 cents up to 66 and Ruziboev from 39 down to 35, on buys that walked the book up a cent at a time from 4:38 on, bracketed by real selling at both ends of the hour. The exchange has held the mid-60s since. Both men had made weight Friday in Paris (Page at 185 pounds, Ruziboev at 186), so the weigh-in was not the news; the tape shows the move, not its cause. What it does show is that the overnight flow leaned back toward the underdog: the largest single print on the winner board since the reprice, about 12,000 Ruziboev contracts bought at 36 cents just after midnight Saturday, was someone taking the other side of Friday's move at the new price.
The Finish Contracts: Where The Real Split Lives
On Wednesday afternoon Kalshi added the fight's method, distance and round markets, and the method board is the one that turns the two profiles above into prices.
| Contract | Bid | Ask | Lifetime Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Page By Decision | 40¢ | 41¢ | ~8,600 contracts |
| Page By KO/TKO/DQ | 21¢ | 23¢ | ~39,700 contracts |
| Page By Submission | 0¢ | 3¢ | ~1,500 contracts |
| Ruziboev By Submission | 15¢ | 16¢ | ~15,700 contracts |
| Ruziboev By Decision | 14¢ | 15¢ | ~4,600 contracts |
| Ruziboev By KO/TKO/DQ | 9¢ | 10¢ | ~3,500 contracts |
| Draw Or No Contest | 1¢ | 2¢ | ~1,000 contracts |
The asks on that board add up to about 110 cents, so buying the whole thing costs a dime more than it pays; read every row as a cost to buy, not a probability. The row that matters is the top one. Page's three method asks, decision 41, knockout 23 and submission 3, total 67 cents, so the board puts about three of every five Page wins on the scorecards. That is the read a handicapper gives a low-volume points striker: wins rounds, does not dominate, buy the decision.
Now the row that moved. Page by knockout carried almost no volume through Thursday, about 540 contracts, and then at 7:04 p.m. ET Friday, a little over two hours after the winner market repriced, someone bought about 24,900 contracts of it at 26 cents in a single second, on top of 4,600 more 55 seconds earlier at 21 to 25 cents. That single minute, about 29,500 contracts, is roughly three-quarters of everything the contract has ever traded. The board did not follow: the ask has come back to 23 cents since, so the buyer is already paying more than the market will now charge you. Whatever that trader knows, the rest of the board has answered by marking the contract back down, as if Page's finishes still live in Bellator.
The Ruziboev rows read like his stat line. Submission at 16 cents is his most expensive path and the second-most-traded contract on the board; knockout at 10 and decision at 15 split the rest. Add them up and about 41 cents of Ruziboev asks sits behind a 36-cent winner price, which is the overround again, but the ordering is the point. Of the ways the underdog cashes, the board prices the tap as the likeliest, which is what 21 submission wins and a one-in-five takedown conversion should price to: rare, but decisive when it lands. The distance market agrees from the other direction, with "goes the distance" at 55 bid, 56 ask, a coin flip leaning slightly toward the judges, on a bout where the winner price already has the favorite as the one who needs them.
Twenty Sportsbooks, And The Exchange Sits Right On Top Of Them
The sportsbook half of this fight is the part that behaves. At the moment the Kalshi board above was captured, the OddsShopper live board carried Page vs Ruziboev at 20 sportsbooks. Page ranged from -180 at the softest book to -227 at the harshest, and Ruziboev from +150 to +175. The mainstream numbers sat close together: DraftKings at -198 and +164, FanDuel at -198 and +166, Caesars at -195 and +165, and Pinnacle, the book sharps use as a reference price, at -191 and +168.
Strip the vig from every pair and the 20 books put Page somewhere between 61.9% and 65.6%, with Pinnacle at 63.8% and DraftKings at 63.7%. Kalshi's 64-to-65 quote sits inside that band, about a cent above the sharp anchors. On Wednesday's Hooker vs Parnasse board the exchange was two to three cents away from the sharp books on the same card; here it is on top of them, the way it was in the Makhachev vs Garry market last month. The books have moved the same direction as the exchange, too: FanDuel opened this fight at -176 and +142, and the line has walked toward Page since. The softest book on the board, Bet99ON at -180, is still sitting about where FanDuel opened, while the exchange and the sharp books have both moved past it. The full method for turning any book's pair into fair cents is in our de-vig walkthrough for Kalshi.
A Worked Example: What Each Side Costs After Fees
When the two venues agree on the probability, the fee decides the venue. Kalshi charges a trading fee on each taker order that works out to roughly 0.07 times the price times one minus the price, per contract, about 1.6 cents on either side of this fight. Add it to the ask and compare it with the break-even rate baked into the sportsbook line:
| Position | Kalshi Ask + Fee | Break-Even On Kalshi | DraftKings Line | Break-Even At The Book | Best Book On The Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Page To Win | 65¢ + ~1.6¢ = ~66.6¢ | 66.6% | -198 | 66.4% | -180 (64.3%) |
| Ruziboev To Win | 36¢ + ~1.6¢ = ~37.6¢ | 37.6% | +164 | 37.9% | +175 (36.4%) |
Read the Page row. A $100 stake at an effective 66.6 cents buys about 150 contracts and returns about $150 if he wins. The same $100 at DraftKings returns about $151, and about $156 at the best price on the board. The Ruziboev row lands the same way: about $266 back on Kalshi, $264 at DraftKings, $275 at the best book. Against the mainstream books the exchange is a wash after fees on both sides, and against the best number on the board it loses on both, unlike the Hooker fight two slots up, where the exchange was the cheaper venue for the favorite. The whole difference between venues on this bout is the price difference between books, so whichever fighter you like, shop him. Our live UFC odds screen puts all 20 books' Page and Ruziboev prices side by side so you shop the number instead of taking the first one, and the structural reason the exchange and the books converge on some fights and split on others is laid out in Kalshi fees vs sportsbook vig.
That leaves the one thing the books do not sell at all. The method contracts above have no sportsbook comparison on this page, and they are where the exchange is offering a price on the actual argument of the fight rather than its result.
What Could Move The Board Before The Walkouts
A number this well-traded does not move on opinion, and the tape gives it a shape. Of the roughly 144,000 contracts that changed hands across both winner contracts in the last 24 hours, the buying leaned toward Page on Friday afternoon and back toward Ruziboev overnight, and the price settled at the top of the band rather than the middle of the move: Page has printed inside 64 to 66 cents for about 12 hours. A trade outside that band before the walkouts is the first new information the winner market will have produced since Friday.
The finish board is thinner, it will move first, and it comes with a trend line. Page by decision traded at an average of 46 cents on Wednesday (a thin 444-contract day), 44 on Thursday, just under 42 on Friday and just under 41 so far on Saturday, a straight-line leak that started two days before the knockout money showed up. If the leak continues at that pace the contract reaches the 30s by the walkouts with the winner price unmoved, which would be buyers expecting the same outcome by a different route.
The knockout buyer has not left, either. Open interest on that contract is about 39,400 against roughly 39,700 of lifetime volume, so Friday night's 26-cent position is still open, and the 23-cent ask is the rest of the board refusing to pay that price rather than the buyer walking away. The single rule worth knowing before you buy any of it: a draw or no contest settles both winner contracts at 50 cents, a 15-cent loss per contract for a Page buyer at 65 where a sportsbook would typically void the moneyline, and the same result pays the 2-cent draw contract on the method board at $1. Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation as event contracts, not sports betting, is open to traders 18 and over, and its state availability differs from the sportsbooks' and changes often (our last verified list dates to July 2026), so check Kalshi's own eligibility page before assuming your state is live. Kalshi's rules for this market also state that it is not endorsed by or affiliated with Zuffa or the UFC, and a postponement keeps the contracts open until a rescheduled fight within two weeks, with a fair-price settlement beyond that.
Once the cage door closes the contracts keep trading, and the path questions from earlier become price questions in real time. A Ruziboev clinch that turns into a scramble reprices the 16-cent submission contract faster than anything on the winner board, and a Page who spends round one at range at 79 inches does the opposite to the decision price. Watching how our handicappers read those momentum shifts costs nothing on our free expert picks today hub, and the daily version of this whole exercise, across every liquid Kalshi board, runs each morning on the Kalshi picks today hub.
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The Bottom Line On Page Vs Ruziboev Kalshi Odds
Zoom back out. Twenty sportsbooks and an exchange have priced the same fight, the exchange and the sharp books to within a cent of each other and the books nearly four cents apart among themselves, and once fees are counted the exchange is a wash against the mainstream books and a loser against the best one, on both sides. The winner market is decided; it is not where the value is. The finish market is where the fight's two profiles, the 39-year-old nobody hits and the 32-year-old with 21 submissions, turn into prices you can disagree with: Page by decision at 41 cents, Ruziboev by tap at 16, and a knockout contract that someone paid 26 cents for on Friday night and the market has already marked down. Re-run every one of those numbers Saturday afternoon at whatever the live quotes say, because a method board this new and this thin rarely looks the same by the walkouts.
Price-shopping is the entire edge on a fight where the venues agree, and doing it by hand across 20 books and an exchange is the slow way. OddsShopper does the comparison automatically and flags the prices in your favor. The 7-day OS Pro trial is free, and code VENOM20 is good for 20% off your first month after it.
