Kyle Schwarber at +381 headlines the St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 38 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 36 |
| Jimmy Crooks II (STL) | +500 | BetMGM 🎁 | 16.7% | 3 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 36 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +550 | BetRivers 🎁 | 15.4% | 37 |
| J.J. Wetherholt (STL) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 36 |
| Joshua Baez (STL) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 27 |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | +700 | Fanatics | 12.5% | 35 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Spend $5+, Get $200 in Bonuses ($50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days for 21 days).
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:11 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citizens Bank Park: park index 100.7 · wind 6 mph.
- Jordan Walker (STL) — on the bat alone — homers every 29 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +416 · NoVig +376
- Joshua Báez (STL) — 32% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +608 · NoVig +590
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 17% of the time, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · homers every 30 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +614 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +614
- Iván Herrera (STL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +647 · NoVig +700
- Blaze Jordan (STL) — on the bat alone — homers every 111 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1050 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +902 · NoVig +900
- Bryan Torres (STL) — 36% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1372 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +1372 · NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
