Rays vs Orioles Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sat 7:05 PM ET. On the mound: Shane McClanahan (Rays) vs Brandon Young (Orioles). Moneyline: Rays -124 (FanDuel) at Orioles +118 (OnyxOdds) — best prices across 8 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles board opens with Junior Caminero at +358 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 37 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +421 | ProphetX | 19.2% | 38 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 36 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 37 |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | +575 | Bet365 | 14.8% | 34 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +600 | Fanatics | 14.3% | 36 |
| Samuel Basallo (BAL) | +700 | Bally | 12.5% | 27 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:11 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: park index 106.8 · wind 8 mph.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — homers every 14 PA against righties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +358 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +313 · Polymarket +358 · NoVig +344
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +421 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +400
- Tyler O'Neill (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · 35% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 14 PA against lefties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +471
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — 32% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 12 PA against lefties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +451 · NoVig +471
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +647 · NoVig +641
- Ryan Vilade (TB) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · NoVig +852
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — no edge in the conditions — hitting into a 6 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +669
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips — but hitting into a 6 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1050 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +970 · NoVig +1011
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes these plays:
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+116). Bet now
- Stacks Covers on Tails (#7 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115). Bet now
- SEvansBets on Tails (#10 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Both Teams Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I (+108). Bet now
- MassMoneyline on Tails likes Over 8.5 Total Runs (+100). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+102). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+350). Bet now → Bet365
More from these experts on Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles. JediModi, MassMoneyline, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
