Rays vs Orioles Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sun 1:35 PM ET. On the mound: Nick Martinez (Rays) vs Shane Baz (Orioles). Moneyline: Rays -108 (FanDuel) at Orioles +105 (Caesars) — best prices across 12 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles board opens with Pete Alonso at +335 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +335 | NoVig | 23.0% | 38 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +350 | Bet365 | 22.2% | 37 |
| Samuel Basallo (BAL) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 33 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +425 | Bet365 | 19.0% | 36 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 33 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 37 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 37 |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 37 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Spend $5+, Get $200 in Bonuses ($50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days for 21 days).
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 23, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: park index 106.0 · wind 8 mph.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 10% of what this starter throws · homers every 18 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +290 at FanDuel
- Junior Caminero (TB) — homers every 14 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +390 at Bet365
- Samuel Basallo (BAL) — 23% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 18 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +353
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 25 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +525 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +525
- Colton Cowser (BAL) — punishes sinkers and cutters 14% of the time, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · 25% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +600 at Bet365 | exchanges: NoVig +545
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — 24% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 32 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +471 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +471
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 34 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +676 · NoVig +669
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +800 at Bet365
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-104). Bet now
- DylansDailyLocks on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+102). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+2800). Bet now → Bet365
- Conormacpicks on Tails likes Baltimore Orioles Moneyline 1st5 (+100). Bet now
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Pete Alonso Over 6 Hitter Fantasy Score.
- Paul Rami on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline 1st5 (-117). Bet now → NoVig
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-122). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles. CharlieChip, EdgeAI Plus, PrizePick Champions post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
