Nationals vs Marlins Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sun 1:40 PM ET. On the mound: Jackson Kent (Nationals) vs Janson Junk (Marlins). Moneyline: Nationals +145 (HardRock) at Marlins -153 (Caesars) — best prices across 11 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins board opens with CJ Abrams at +529 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 3 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 37 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 36 |
| Daylen Lile (WSH) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 36 |
| Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 33 |
| Andres Chaparro (WSH) | +733 | NoVig | 12.0% | 30 |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 37 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 23, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at loanDepot park: park index 88.8 · wind 11 mph.
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — 89° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but hitting into a 11 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — homers every 19 PA against lefties · 89° air — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Fanatics
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — 89° air — but hitting into a 11 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +590
- Agustín Ramírez (MIA) — homers every 30 PA against lefties · 89° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +733 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +733
- Dylan Crews (WSH) — 89° air — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — homers every 33 PA against righties · 89° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips — but hitting into a 11 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +608 · NoVig +614
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side · 89° air — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +686 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +686 · NoVig +669
- Deyvison De Los Santos (MIA) — 35% of his damage flies pull-side · 89° air — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails likes Miami Marlins Moneyline (-160). Bet now → OnyxOdds
- Paul Rami on Tails likes Over 4.5 Total Runs 5I (+102).
- BGrebbs on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Washington Nationals Moneyline 1st5 (+130). Bet now → FanDuel
- FOTP on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Miami Marlins -1.5 Run Line (+119). Bet now
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Andrew Pinckney Over 1.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+239). Bet now → NoVig
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Connor Norby Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-180).
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-117). Bet now → Kalshi
- EMac on Tails likes Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135). Bet now
More from these experts on Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins. BGrebbs, DFSnDonuts Picks, EdgeAI Plus, FOTP post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
