Francisco Lindor (+495) and Andres Chaparro (+500) lead tonight's Washington Nationals @ New York Mets home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 36 |
| Andres Chaparro (WSH) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 35 |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 35 |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +555 | Underdog 🎁 | 15.3% | 35 |
| Brady House (WSH) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 35 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 35 |
| Jared Young (NYM) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 35 |
| Jorge Polanco (NYM) | +755 | Kalshi | 11.7% | 29 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 15, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citi Field: park index 101.3 · wind 8 mph.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +488
- Jared Young (NYM) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +685 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +545
- Jorge Polanco (NYM) — punishes sliders, and that is 38% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +755 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · ProphetX +696 · NoVig +614
- Brett Baty (NYM) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +850 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · ProphetX +696 · NoVig +641
- Dylan Crews (WSH) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +456
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +510 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +441
- Carson Benge (NYM) — punishes sliders, and that is 38% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +860 at DraftKings | exchanges: Kalshi +841 · Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +823 · NoVig +809
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +944 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes 4-leg parlay on this game (+961). Bet now → FanDuel
- DylansDailyLocks on Tails likes Washington Nationals Moneyline (+106). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes Washington Nationals Moneyline 1st5 (+108). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes CJ Abrams Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+567). Bet now → DraftKings
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- EMac on Tails likes Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160). Bet now
More from these experts on Washington Nationals @ New York Mets. BGrebbs, FOTP, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
