JPMorgan Next CEO Odds: Who Replaces Jamie Dimon?
Jamie Dimon has run JPMorgan Chase since 2006, and Kalshi has now turned the biggest open question in American banking into two markets: who takes the chair when he leaves, and by when. One board asks who succeeds him before 2030, the other before the end of 2035. We handed five AI models the same fetched, dated facts about the June reshuffle that reset this race, hid every market price from them, and asked each to distribute the field across both horizons. They agreed on the shape, this is a two-man race now, but on two names the crowd is still carrying, the models walked almost all the way to zero.
The Market
| Venue | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of August 2026) |
| The Near-Term Board | "Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO?" (before Jan 1, 2030), four named contracts, ticker KXJPMCEONEW |
| The Long-Dated Board | "Who will be the next CEO of JPMorgan Chase?" (before Dec 31, 2035), six named contracts, ticker KXNEWROLEJP-35DEC |
| The Contract | Each market resolves YES if that person becomes the first non-interim, named CEO of JPMorgan after Dimon before the board's horizon date, per each market's Kalshi settlement rules |
| Settles | Early if a successor is named; otherwise the boards expire on their horizon dates (Jan 1, 2030 and Dec 31, 2035) |
| Prices Below As Of | August 3, 2026 (Kalshi candlestick snapshot; these are thin books, with last reads spanning July 29 to August 3) |
The Quick Answer
Both boards tell the same story: since June, this is Troy Rohrbaugh versus Doug Petno, and everyone else is a longshot. The market's near-term board makes Rohrbaugh the front-runner at about 48 cents with Petno second near 33 cents; our five price-blind models see that top line closer to even, blending Rohrbaugh at 31% and Petno at 30%. The bigger story is where the models leave the crowd entirely. Kalshi still prices Jennifer Piepszak at 14 to 20 cents and a retiring Marianne Lake near 8 to 9 cents on the long board, but both women have publicly stepped out of contention, and the panel reads that news and fades them to low single digits. The full model-by-model board for each horizon, the two front-runners, the dark horses, and where the panel breaks hardest from the market are all below.
The one-look read: The market and the models both make Rohrbaugh and Petno the two live successors. The models diverge in two places: they see the near-term Rohrbaugh price (48 cents) as too high, calling it a near coin flip with Petno, and they fade Piepszak and Lake far below their Kalshi prices because both have already exited the race.
📩 Get the settled verdict. We grade every call on these boards in public once a successor is named. Want the scorecard, plus a re-scored board if Dimon sets a date or the bank moves a name? Grab it from the email box at the bottom of this page. No estimate here is a prediction of fact.
New to event contracts like these? Start with our plain-English guide to how prediction markets work before you read a single cent as an edge.
Prices on this page refresh during active news waves; every quote below is as of August 3, 2026, and carries an "as of" stamp so you can see when it was last read.
The Setup: The June Reshuffle That Reset The Race
For years this question had two presumed front-runners, both women, and a long list of maybes. One executive shuffle in June rewrote all of it. Our models received the following as verified, dated facts, and nothing about the prices:
- June 25, 2026: JPMorgan Named Doug Petno And Troy Rohrbaugh Co-Presidents, effective immediately (CNBC, Bloomberg). In the new structure, Petno becomes sole CEO of the Commercial and Investment Bank, while Rohrbaugh takes over Consumer and Community Banking. Naming two co-presidents at once is the board's clearest public signal of its two leading internal candidates.
- Each Co-President Got A One-Time Retention Stock Award Of $30 Million. Per JPMorgan's 8-K, the awards cliff-vest 100% after three years, but only if the firm hits a three-year average return on tangible common equity of 12% across 2026 to 2028, and they do not vest on retirement. That ties both men to the firm into about mid-2029, the window Dimon has framed for a handoff.
- Marianne Lake Announced She Will Retire. Lake, a 25-year veteran who was CFO from 2013 to 2019 before running the consumer bank, was a long-presumed front-runner. Dimon said Lake chose retirement after the board named the co-presidents (Banking Dive), and Fortune framed it plainly as "Marianne Lake exits race." She is leaving the firm, not waiting in the wings.
- Jennifer Piepszak Already Took Herself Out. The other long-time co-front-runner pulled her name from CEO consideration when she was elevated to Chief Operating Officer in January 2025, with reporting that she does not want the top job. She remains COO.
- Dimon Is Not Leaving Soon, And Has No Named Date. He has repeatedly signaled he could stay CEO for roughly three more years, into about 2029, and joked about staying "at least" five, and the bank expects him to remain executive chairman for a period after he steps down as CEO (Fortune).
The models saw those facts and had to weigh a real tension on the near-term board. The board only pays out if a handoff actually happens before 2030, and Dimon's own three-year framing puts that right at the edge of the window. That is the quiet reason the panel does not price the top names as high as the market does, more on that below.
The Two Front-Runners: Troy Rohrbaugh And Doug Petno
Strip away the exits and this is a duopoly, and the market and the panel agree on the two names.
- Troy Rohrbaugh (56). The younger of the two co-presidents, now running Consumer and Community Banking, the division that has been a proving ground for JPMorgan CEO candidates. Four of the five models gave him the slight edge over Petno on both horizons, citing his age runway and that consumer-banking path. Kalshi's near-term board agrees he leads, but by a much wider margin (about 48 cents) than the panel's 31% blend.
- Doug Petno (61). Now sole CEO of the Commercial and Investment Bank, the firm's profit engine. The panel puts him essentially even with Rohrbaugh, blending him at 30% near-term and 36% on the long board. One model, DeepSeek, actually flipped the order and made Petno the favorite on both horizons (35% and 45%), reading his CIB scope as the stronger platform. As GLM put it, the June reshuffle "establishing Petno and Rohrbaugh as co-presidents with retention equity vesting in 2029 identifies them as the primary successors."
The honest read on the top of the board is that the models see a real two-man race with a faint tilt toward Rohrbaugh, while the market has committed harder to Rohrbaugh as the single favorite. Where the market leans on one clear front-runner, the panel reads the co-president structure as a two-way contest and splits its numbers accordingly.
Where The Panel Breaks Hardest From The Market
Two names carry real money on Kalshi that the models rate as nearly dead, and both for the same reason: the person has publicly left the race, and a thin, slow-moving book has not fully caught up.
- Jennifer Piepszak. Market 14 To 20 Cents; Panel 2 To 4%. This is the single largest disagreement on either board. Piepszak is still listed and still carries a mid-teens-to-twenty-cent price, but she withdrew from CEO consideration in January 2025 when she became COO, and reporting says she does not want the job. Every one of the five models put her in low single digits. If the reporting holds, that price sits far above where a candidate who has removed herself from contention would land.
- Marianne Lake. Long-Board Market About 8 To 9 Cents; Panel 1%. Lake announced her retirement in the June reshuffle. The near-term board has already marked her down to a penny-to-a-nickel, but the 2035 board still carries her near 8 to 9 cents, and the panel sees almost nothing there for a departing executive.
There is a structural edge underneath the near-term board, too. Add up the four Kalshi prices on the before-2030 board and they sum to slightly over 100 cents, which implies the crowd is treating a handoff before 2030 as close to a certainty and is only debating who. The panel is not so sure a handoff even happens by then: its four near-term numbers sum to about 64%, leaving roughly a third of the probability on "Dimon is still CEO on January 1, 2030, or the successor is someone not on this four-name board." Given Dimon's own roughly-three-years language and the fact that the near-term board omits names like Mary Erdoes entirely, that residual is the panel's deepest quiet disagreement with the market.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
The longer board carries two names beyond the co-presidents that the models keep alive, even if barely.
- Mary Erdoes (Long-Board Market About 14 Cents; Panel 10%). CEO of Asset and Wealth Management and a perennial succession name. She received a reported $20 million bonus in the June restructuring but was not elevated to co-president, which the models read as a step behind Petno and Rohrbaugh rather than out. Kimi flagged her and Barnum as candidates who "remain viable dark horses with more time," which is exactly why the ten-year board keeps her in double digits while the near-term board leaves her off.
- Jeremy Barnum (Long-Board Market About 5 Cents; Panel 5%). The CFO, and the one name where the panel and the market essentially agree. Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo said he "would not rule out" Barnum, and the models priced him as a live-but-unlikely insider on the decade horizon.
The point of a ten-year board is that it has room for the field to change. A dark horse today can be a co-president in three years, which is precisely the move Rohrbaugh and Petno just made.
The Full Board: Before 2030 (KXJPMCEONEW)
Every model scored the field price-blind. Numbers are the panel's post-revision estimates. This board carries four names; the balance of probability sits on "no successor named before 2030, or someone not listed here."
The board (phone-friendly):
| Candidate | Market (mid) | Panel blend | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Rohrbaugh | ~48¢ | 31% | Market's clear favorite; panel sees a coin flip |
| Doug Petno | ~33¢ | 30% | Panel has him even with Rohrbaugh |
| Jennifer Piepszak | ~20¢ | 2% | Withdrew in Jan 2025; panel's biggest fade |
| Marianne Lake | ~3¢ | 1% | Retiring; both sides near zero |
Every seat's number:
| Candidate | Market | Opus | Sonnet | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Rohrbaugh | 48¢ | 31 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 31% |
| Doug Petno | 33¢ | 28 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 30% |
| Jennifer Piepszak | 20¢ | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2% |
| Marianne Lake | 3¢ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1% |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The models were scored without seeing any market prices, and they are graded against real settlements and are wrong regularly. Event contracts are for adults 18 and older where legal.
The Full Board: Before 2035 (KXNEWROLEJP-35DEC)
The ten-year board opens the field to six names. For any single person, a longer horizon can only raise their chance, so every number here sits at or above that person's before-2030 estimate.
The board (phone-friendly):
| Candidate | Market (mid) | Panel blend | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Rohrbaugh | ~33¢ | 39% | Panel slightly above the market |
| Doug Petno | ~33¢ | 36% | Panel a touch above; DeepSeek's favorite |
| Mary Erdoes | ~14¢ | 10% | Live dark horse the panel keeps |
| Jeremy Barnum | ~5¢ | 5% | Panel and market agree |
| Jennifer Piepszak | ~14¢ | 4% | Panel fades the withdrawal |
| Marianne Lake | ~9¢ | 1% | Panel fades the retirement |
Every seat's number:
| Candidate | Market | Opus | Sonnet | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Rohrbaugh | 33¢ | 40 | 38 | 38 | 40 | 40 | 39% |
| Doug Petno | 33¢ | 35 | 35 | 30 | 36 | 45 | 36% |
| Mary Erdoes | 14¢ | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10% |
| Jeremy Barnum | 5¢ | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5% |
| Jennifer Piepszak | 14¢ | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4% |
| Marianne Lake | 9¢ | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1% |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The models were scored without seeing any market prices, and they are graded against real settlements and are wrong regularly. Event contracts are for adults 18 and older where legal.
These numbers come from five price-blind models reading the same dated facts, and every estimate on both boards gets graded in public once a successor is named, on the full graded scoreboard, so you can see whether the panel or the market called it better.
A disclosure on the panel. Our standard Model Verdict panel runs eight seats; this run used five of them: Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek. The other three (ChatGPT, Gemini Pro, and Grok) were not part of this run. Each of the five returned a complete distribution for both horizons, scored price-blind on August 4, 2026, and then read each other's anonymized reasoning in a revision round before the numbers above were locked.
How To Read These Boards
A pair of succession markets like this rewards knowing a few things about how they work:
- A price is a probability, not a payout. A contract that settles at $1 if it hits and $0 if it does not trades at roughly the crowd's estimate of the odds, so 48 cents on Rohrbaugh is about a 48% implied chance, not odds of a payout. Our guide to what a prediction-market price really means walks through the fees and spread that sit between the printed price and a true probability.
- Thin books lie. These are lightly traded markets, so a last price can be stale, and several names quote with wide bid-ask spreads (Marianne Lake's near-term contract has been quoted with a zero bid). Treat a single cent reading as a suggestion, not a settled number, which is exactly why a withdrawn candidate can still show a mid-teens price.
- The horizon is doing work. The same person is worth more on the ten-year board than the before-2030 board, because there is more time for a handoff to happen at all. When you compare the two boards, you are partly measuring how soon the crowd thinks Dimon actually leaves.
- A model estimate is not a verdict on value. The panel rating Rohrbaugh below his price is a disagreement, not a certainty, and one model sided with a different favorite entirely. Contracts settle on what actually happens, per Kalshi's written rules, which are always the governing document. For how a crowd can misprice a single person's move, see how the market handled LeBron James's free agency.
Availability and rules differ by state; our state-by-state legality guide has the current picture.
FAQ
Who Is The Favorite To Replace Jamie Dimon As JPMorgan CEO?
After the June 25, 2026 reshuffle that named Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh co-presidents, those two are the clear internal front-runners. Kalshi's before-2030 board makes Rohrbaugh the top name at about 48 cents and Petno second near 33 cents; our five price-blind AI models see it closer to a coin flip, blending Rohrbaugh at 31% and Petno at 30%.
Why Do The AI Models Rate Jennifer Piepszak SO Much Lower Than The Market?
Piepszak was a long-time co-front-runner, but she pulled her name out of the CEO running when she was elevated to Chief Operating Officer in January 2025, and reporting says she does not want the job. Kalshi still prices her around 14 to 20 cents; the panel, reading the withdrawal, blends her at 2 to 4%. That gap is the single largest disagreement on either board.
Is Marianne Lake Still A Candidate?
No. In the June 25, 2026 reshuffle, Lake, a 25-year veteran and long-presumed front-runner, announced she will retire. The longer-dated board still carries her near 8 to 9 cents; the models, reading the retirement, put her at about 1%.
When Is Jamie Dimon Actually Leaving?
There is no announced date. Dimon has repeatedly signaled he could stay CEO for roughly three more years, into about 2029, and has joked about staying longer, and the bank expects him to remain executive chairman for a period afterward. That timing is why the before-2030 board is far from settled: a handoff has to happen inside about three and a half years for any name to resolve YES.
Are These Model Estimates Financial Advice?
No. They are model estimates for informational purposes, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange for users 18 and older, with availability that varies by state. Treat the panel as one input among many.
The Bottom Line
Since June, the machines and the market are reading the same reshuffle and mostly nodding: Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno are the two live successors, and everyone else is a longshot. The disagreements are pointed. The models make the near-term race a Rohrbaugh-Petno coin flip rather than the market's Rohrbaugh-led board, they leave a real chunk of probability on Dimon simply not handing off before 2030, and above all they fade the two names, Jennifer Piepszak and Marianne Lake, who have already walked out of the race but still carry double-digit and mid-single-digit prices on a slow-moving book. None of that is a recommendation, and a single JPMorgan press release can rewrite this entire page. It is a snapshot of where five price-blind models and two real markets agree on the shape of a succession, and the exact places where they don't.
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