Kalshi prices, volume and trade history as of Tuesday, September 8, 2026, about 9:10 a.m. ET, pulled from Kalshi's public market data. The DraftKings line comes from ESPN's odds page at the same time. Napoli vs Arsenal kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Naples (Paramount+ in the U.S.), on the first matchday of the Champions League league phase, and Kalshi expects to settle the contracts around 6 p.m. ET. Every number here moves before kickoff, so re-check the live quote before acting on any of it.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's Champions League market has Arsenal at 56 cents bid, 57 ask to win at Napoli on Wednesday, the draw at 25 bid, 26 ask, and Napoli at 18 bid, 19 ask, on roughly 48,300 open contracts across the three legs. In payout terms, $100 on the 19-cent Napoli contract, fee included, comes back as about $498 if the home side wins and nothing if it does not; the same $100 on the 26-cent draw comes back as about $366. Napoli arrive 12th in Serie A after leading Inter 2-0 on Saturday and losing 3-2, with four players out and a new manager nine weeks into the job; Arsenal arrive as English champions, last season's Champions League finalists, and four wins from four competitive games this season. The board has moved the way the form reads: Arsenal have climbed from 53 cents to 57 in a week and Napoli have fallen from 22 to 19. The case below is about which of those moves went too far, and it lands somewhere the form table does not point: the leg where the exchange and the sportsbook disagree most in the buyer's favor is the home side, not the draw.
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Three Prices, And The One The Buyers Built
An away favorite in Naples is the kind of price that used to need explaining. Under Antonio Conte, Napoli won the 2024-25 Scudetto and finished second last season. Nine weeks into Massimiliano Allegri's tenure, they have already lost at home to Como, and Kalshi's traders have Arsenal at 57 cents to win at the Maradona, a number that has climbed from 53 cents to 57 since Saturday, on eight straight days of buy-side flow. If you are new to how a Kalshi contract works, what a Kalshi price actually means covers the mechanics in five minutes, and the rest of this page assumes them.
The thesis of this page is that the price is right about the side and still worth arguing about at the level. Arsenal are the better team by every measure a market can see. The tape behind the Arsenal contract, laid out below, is as one-directional as a tape gets: of roughly 41,700 Arsenal contracts traded, about 41,000 were bought by the aggressor and 700 sold. A market where nobody sells the favorite tends to price the favorite a little dearer than a sportsbook does, and that is exactly what the DraftKings comparison two sections down finds. The interesting question is who paid for Arsenal's four-cent climb, and the answer, held until the board itself, is Napoli's leg rather than the draw's.
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What Saturday Night Did To Napoli's Price
Napoli went to San Siro on September 5 and led Inter 2-0 eight minutes into the second half. Matteo Politano scored in the 50th minute and Rasmus Højlund in the 53rd. Lautaro Martínez pulled one back in the 56th, Marcus Thuram scored the equalizer in the 82nd, and Lautaro won it in the first minute of stoppage time after Napoli failed to clear a corner. That was Napoli's second straight loss: a week earlier they had lost 2-1 at home to Como, Martin Baturina scoring in the 17th minute, Højlund leveling in the 30th and Tasos Douvikas restoring Como's lead in the 35th. The season opened with a 2-0 win at Genoa on August 22, De Bruyne, off the bench, and Vergara scoring, and three games in Napoli sit 12th in Serie A with three points, five goals scored and five conceded. Inter, the team that beat them, are second.
The price followed the scoreline with a one-day lag. Napoli's contract averaged 23 cents on its first day, September 1, and 22 on every day from September 2 through the Inter game. On Sunday evening, September 6, the selling arrived: at 6:06 p.m. ET three prints of 400, 300 and 250 contracts went off at 20 cents with the aggressor on the sell side, and of the roughly 1,960 Napoli contracts traded that day, about 1,510 were sales. Sunday's average was 20 cents and its close was 18, and Monday's trading settled it at 19. Tuesday morning the buyers came back, about 2,000 contracts bought against 300 sold by 9 a.m. ET, and still could not move the quote off Monday's 19, which is what a one-cent tick on a thin book looks like. Three cents off a 22-cent contract is a 14% cut to the home side's chance, four at Sunday's low, and it happened the evening after a blown two-goal lead.
Hold that drop next to what actually changed on Saturday, because a market that repriced the result should have been repricing the team sheet, and the team sheet was already bad on Friday.
The Team Sheet Allegri Cannot Send Out
Four Napoli players are out for Wednesday, and none of them is a form decision. Scott McTominay, the midfielder Napoli signed from Manchester United, missed the Inter game and will miss the Champions League opener after a corrective procedure for a minor heart arrhythmia; the reporting from Sports Mole and RotoWire has him back in October. Alessandro Buongiorno is out until late October after knee surgery, Luca Marianucci has a knee injury and is out until mid-October, and both were left out of the league-phase squad entirely. Giovane had hernia surgery on September 3. On top of that, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa and David Neres both missed training and face late fitness tests, per Football365.
The list matters more at the back than in midfield. Napoli conceded five goals in their last two games with Buongiorno already out, and the predicted defense for Wednesday has Rafa Marín beside Amir Rrahmani in the middle, with Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Leonardo Spinazzola at full back. In front of them, Stanislav Lobotka and Anguissa, if he passes his test, are the midfield in every predicted lineup, and De Bruyne is the predicted third starter in both, at 35, despite not having started a game this season: he was left out at Inter, with Allegri questioning whether he could sustain 90 minutes. Højlund leads the line, and his record in this competition is the one Napoli number that argues with the board: eight goals in 13 Champions League games, per Football365, and two goals in the last two league games.
Allegri's own read, at the press conference before the Inter game when he was asked whether the Como loss had ended Napoli's title chances, was, per Football Italia: "I understand that at Napoli it's either over-excitement or depression, but we are only in Week 3." A team that can lead Inter 2-0 and lose 3-2 is not a team the market can price with confidence, and the three-cent drop is what a market does with a team it cannot price: it sells the uncertainty. Whether it oversold it is the question the DraftKings line gets to answer.
Arsenal, And Why Nobody Is Selling
Arsenal's contract opened at an average of 53.6 cents on September 1, dipped to 52.8 on September 2, sat at 54 from Thursday through the weekend, averaged 56.5 on Monday, September 7, and last traded at 57 on Tuesday morning. Every day of that week the buyers were the aggressor on more than nine contracts in 10. The largest print on any leg of this board was a 2,631-contract buy at 55 cents at 11:45 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 6, followed within five minutes by two more buys of about 1,000 contracts each at the same price; the week's other big buy was 1,972 contracts at 54 cents on Friday night at 10:32 p.m. ET. The largest sale of Arsenal in the market's life was 190 contracts at 52 cents on Saturday night.
The record they are buying is a good one, and three pieces of it are the ones the price actually rests on. The first is the only away-in-Italy datum the market can see: Arsenal won 3-1 at Inter on January 20, Gabriel Jesus scoring twice, on the way to winning all eight league-phase games last season, and a team that has already won at San Siro is why a 56-cent away favorite in Naples clears without argument. The second is the season so far: 3-0 against Manchester City in the Community Shield, 3-0 at Coventry, 1-0 at Aston Villa and, on Sunday, 2-1 against Chelsea at the Emirates, coming back from a Morgan Rogers goal after 77 seconds through Havertz in the 25th minute and Martin Ødegaard in the 50th, for nine points from three league games with one goal conceded, level with City at the top. Against a Napoli defense that has let in five in two, that one-goal figure is the number the 30-cent "Arsenal by two or more" contract on Kalshi's spread board is built on. The third is the one nobody is buying, and it is the reason the price is 57 and not higher: Arsenal lost the Champions League final in Budapest on May 30, 1-1 with Paris Saint-Germain after a fifth-minute Havertz goal and an Ousmane Dembélé penalty, then 4-3 on kicks when Gabriel Magalhães missed the fifth. Mikel Arteta's line after Chelsea, per Sky Sports: "I think it's an indication for us of how capable we are to perform at an even higher level than last season."
The summer rebuild lands on the two positions Napoli are weakest at, which is why the two injury lists do not cost the same in cents. On Arsenal's side, William Saliba is weeks away with a back injury, and Cristhian Mosquera probably joins him after missing the open training session before the trip with a muscle problem; Jurriën Timber took part but is not expected to start. Napoli are without Buongiorno and Marianucci. The difference is that Arsenal bought Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa for an initial £51 million in August and made Piero Hincapié's loan from Leverkusen permanent, so Konsa's Champions League debut for the club comes beside Gabriel in a back four that has conceded once all season; Napoli's replacements are Rafa Marín and Rrahmani behind a midfield missing McTominay. That midfield is the other half: Arsenal spent about £75 million on Bruno Guimarães from Newcastle, an unused substitute against Chelsea with a knock who took part in the open session, and about £34 million on Christos Tzolis from Club Brugge, and Napoli's counterweight to that is a 35-year-old De Bruyne who has not started a game. Kalshi's tournament board prices Arsenal at 14 bid, 15 ask to win the whole competition, level with Real Madrid on the ask and behind only Barcelona, on about 159,000 open contracts; Napoli's contract on the same board is a penny.
What The Head-To-Head Is Worth In Cents
Not much, and the record is short enough to say why. Napoli and Arsenal have met four times in European competition, all since 2013, and Arsenal have won three: 2-0 at home in the 2013-14 Champions League group stage, then 2-0 at home and 1-0 in Naples in the 2018-19 Europa League quarterfinal, the last of those on an Alexandre Lacazette free kick on April 18, 2019. Napoli's one win was 2-0 at home on December 11, 2013, in a game where Arteta, then an Arsenal midfielder, was sent off. Two of the four were in Naples and the home side won one of them, which is the only number in the record that argues for the 19-cent contract, and it is from December 2013, almost 13 years ago, when Arteta was still an Arsenal player. Zero draws in four is too small a sample to move a draw price: the page that priced how often soccer games end in a draw across 676 completed Polymarket US three-way markets found about one in four, which is what the exchange asks here. The history tells you nothing the form table has not already told you louder.
The Board, And A Week Of One-Way Traffic
Kalshi lists the match under the event ticker KXUCLGAME-26SEP09NAPARS: one yes/no contract per outcome, each paying $1 if that result stands after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The Arsenal and Napoli contracts have traded since the evening of September 1, the draw since the next morning, and Monday was the busiest day of the market's life.
| Contract | Bid | Ask | Last Trade | 24-Hour Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 56¢ | 57¢ | 57¢ | ~17,300 contracts | ~40,500 |
| Tie | 25¢ | 26¢ | 25¢ | ~2,000 contracts | ~2,300 |
| Napoli | 18¢ | 19¢ | 19¢ | ~3,700 contracts | ~5,500 |
The Arsenal row is the whole market: about 40,500 of the 48,300 open contracts are on the favorite, and the bid-to-ask on every leg is one cent wide, which for a soccer board a day out is tight. The bids sum to 99 cents and the asks to 102, so the exchange is charging about two cents of overround across the three legs. The tape story on this row was told above: 98 buys for every two sells, in a price that went from 53 to 57.
The Napoli row is the mirror image, and it is smaller than it looks. About 6,400 contracts have traded on the home side in the market's life, in 129 trades, against 41,700 contracts and 812 trades on Arsenal. The whole Sunday move was three prints in the same minute, 950 contracts sold between them, and the day's total was about 1,510 sold against 450 bought; before Sunday the row had never traded more than 110 contracts in a day. A row this thin moves a cent on one order, which is why those three prints were enough to reset the price, why Monday's 1,900 contracts, nine in 10 of them buys, only recovered one cent of it, and why Tuesday morning's 2,000 contracts of buying left the quote exactly where Monday ended.
Then the tie, where the full history fits on one screen. The draw contract has traded about 2,600 contracts in its life and 1,950 of them arrived on Monday. It opened at 24 cents on September 2, averaged 25 that day, printed 26 on Thursday and 27 on Saturday on almost no volume, and traded down to 25 on Monday, when the two largest draw prints of the week, 645 and 400 contracts at 9:07 p.m. ET, both went off with the aggressor selling, before closing back at 26. A 107-contract buy at 26 cents an hour and a half later was Monday's last sizable print, and the ask is 26 now. On a leg this thin, the tape shows the sequence and not the reason, and the honest reading is that Monday's draw sellers only pushed the tie back to where it started the week; the cents that funded Arsenal's climb came out of Napoli alone. That is the kind of flow that puts a favorite a couple of cents above fair, and it is the reason to hold the board up against a book before trusting any leg of it.
What DraftKings Says About The Same Three Prices
The book is the sanity check, and on this match it disagrees with the exchange in a specific way. At the moment the board above was captured, DraftKings had the three-way line at Arsenal -135, draw +260, Napoli +370. Those three prices carry break-even rates of 57.4%, 27.8% and 21.3%, which add up to 106.5%, and stripping that 6.5 points of margin out proportionally leaves a no-vig line of about 53.9% Arsenal, 26.1% draw, 20.0% Napoli. The full method for turning any book's three-way price into fair cents is in our de-vig walkthrough for Kalshi.
Kalshi charges its fee on the trade instead of in the line, roughly 0.07 times the price times one minus the price per contract, which works out to about 1.7 cents on the Arsenal leg, 1.3 on the draw and 1.1 on Napoli. Put the two venues side by side with everything included:
| Position | Kalshi Ask + Fee | Break-Even On Kalshi | DraftKings Line | Break-Even At DraftKings | DraftKings No-Vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal To Win | 57¢ + ~1.7¢ = ~58.7¢ | 58.7% | -135 | 57.4% | 53.9% |
| Draw | 26¢ + ~1.3¢ = ~27.3¢ | 27.3% | +260 | 27.8% | 26.1% |
| Napoli To Win | 19¢ + ~1.1¢ = ~20.1¢ | 20.1% | +370 | 21.3% | 20.0% |
Hold both boards to the same yardstick. Strip Kalshi's two cents of overround out of its asks the same way and the exchange's no-vig line is about 55.9% Arsenal, 25.5% draw, 18.6% Napoli, against DraftKings' 53.9, 26.1 and 20.0. The two venues price the draw to within six-tenths of a point. Where they part is the two sides, and they part by about two points one way and about a point and a half the other: the exchange has Arsenal about two points dearer than the book's fair price and Napoli about 1.4 points cheaper. The buyers who pushed Arsenal from 53 to 57 did not take the cents from the draw; they took them from the home side. The comparison that matters to a buyer is not fair-to-fair but price-to-price, the number each venue actually charges, and it says the same thing: Arsenal costs 58.7 cents of probability on the exchange after the fee against 57.4 at the book, the draw 27.3 against 27.8, and Napoli 20.1 against 21.3. That 1.2-point gap on the home side is the widest of the three in the buyer's favor; Arsenal splits wider still, 1.3 points, but against the buyer on the exchange. It is the forward promise from the top of the page paid off in arithmetic. In dollars, with the fee counted as part of the cost, $100 on Arsenal at -135 returns about $174 if they win against about $170 on Kalshi, so the favorite is the leg the book sells cheaper. A $100 Napoli position returns about $498 on the exchange against $470 at DraftKings. The draw is close to a wash: about $366 on Kalshi against $360 at the book.
There is a fourth price worth reading, because it is the one our soccer people reach for by default: the version of this bet that removes the draw. DraftKings offers Napoli +0.5 at +105, which pays if Napoli win or draw and needs to hit 48.8% of the time to break even. Kalshi's spread board for this game lists Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, at 30 bid, 31 ask and 12 bid, 13 ask, and Napoli by the same margins at 5 bid, 6 ask and 1 bid, 2 ask, with no +0.5 leg, so buying "no" on the Arsenal contract is the closest equivalent. With Arsenal bid at 56, a "no" costs about 44 cents, about 45.7 after the fee, so the same outcome that costs 48.8 cents of probability at the book costs 45.7 on the exchange. That three-point gap is the widest between the two venues on this match, and it runs the same direction as the Napoli leg: whatever is not Arsenal is cheaper on Kalshi. The mechanics of why +0.5 and draw-no-bet are the same bet in a different wrapper are in our Asian handicap explainer. Whichever leg you want, the number to check is the one across every book, not one: our live soccer odds screen lines up every major sportsbook's Napoli, draw and Arsenal prices so you shop the number instead of taking the first one, and the structural reason the exchange and the books converge on some legs and split on others is laid out in Kalshi fees vs sportsbook vig.
Pricing The Draw, And The Leg The Sellers Left Behind
Put the sections together, because the page has been carrying two open questions and the pieces are on the table. Take the draw first. The contract asks 26 cents and needs the game to finish level about 27.3% of the time after fees. The book's own fair estimate is 26.1%. Our measurement across those 676 completed Polymarket US three-way markets came out at 24.6% with a confidence interval of roughly 21% to 28%; that is a different exchange's base rate across every league it lists, not a Kalshi number and not a Champions League number. Then the arguments specific to this game, and they pull in opposite directions. Kalshi's totals board has over 2.5 goals at 49 bid, 50 ask and over 3.5 at 27 bid, 28 ask, so the market has the game at a coin flip to reach three goals, and lower-scoring games finish level more often. Both teams to score trades at 51 bid, 52 ask on Kalshi, about 53.8% once the fee is added, against -120 on the yes side at DraftKings, a 54.5% break-even, so the two venues are within a point of each other on whether both sides find the net, which, with Arsenal having scored in every game this season, is close to a price on Napoli scoring at all. Napoli's defense has conceded five in two; Arsenal's has conceded one in three. A game where one side scores and the other might not is a game that finishes 1-0 or 2-0 more often than 1-1. The totals board argues mildly for the draw, the defensive mismatch argues against it, and they roughly cancel, which is how you get a range instead of a number: the honest range for the draw lands around 24 to 27 cents, which puts the 26-cent ask inside it and the 27.3 you actually pay at the top. On both venues, then, the draw is fairly priced, and there is not much more to say about it.
The leg with something to say is Napoli's. The one I keep coming back to is the sequence: the price fell three cents in a day because of a result, not because of a team sheet, and the team sheet was already known. The sportsbook, which had the same weekend to react, still charges 21.3 cents of probability for Napoli at +370; the exchange, after fees, charges 20.1, and its no-vig price of 18.6 sits below the book's own fair estimate of 20.0. Those are small numbers, and small numbers on a thin leg move on one order. But they say something specific: the sellers who reacted to Saturday night took Napoli below where a book with a margin to protect was willing to go, and Monday's buying only got one cent of it back. If the market oversold anything this week, it was the home side, not the draw. And if it did not oversell anything, the 57-cent ask on Arsenal is still about two points above what the book charges for the same outcome, which is the price of buying a favorite everyone else is buying.
What moves it before kickoff is a short list. Napoli's team sheet lands before the 3 p.m. ET kickoff, and Anguissa and Neres are the two names that would reprice the home side; a De Bruyne start is the other. On Arsenal's side, Mosquera's absence is already in the price and a surprise Saliba return is not expected. The contracts do not settle until after the final whistle, and an early Arsenal goal in Naples reprices the draw faster than anything the pre-match tape did. Our handicappers post their reads on cards like this one for free on the free expert picks today hub, the Kalshi soccer picks page tracks Kalshi's soccer boards, and the Kalshi picks today hub runs the daily version of this exercise across every liquid board. If the whole competition interests you more than one Wednesday of it, our Champions League winner odds page prices the whole field; Sunday's Arsenal vs Chelsea board is the same exercise on the game Arsenal just won, and last week's Valencia vs Barcelona board is the version run on a La Liga favorite.
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The Bottom Line On Napoli Vs Arsenal Odds
Zoom back out. An exchange and a sportsbook have priced the first night of the Champions League and agree on the draw to within a point, whichever way you measure it, and disagree on the two sides in opposite directions. The favorite is dearer on Kalshi than at the book; the home underdog is cheaper. That pattern was built by a week of one-way flow, 41,000 Arsenal contracts bought against 700 sold, and the cents that flow needed came out of Napoli's leg the evening after San Siro. Arsenal are the right favorite; nothing on this page argues with the side. The reading rule I would carry into Wednesday afternoon is about the level. If Arsenal are still 57 or higher on Kalshi while DraftKings sits at -135, the book is the venue where the favorite is cheapest, by about 1.3 points of break-even. If Napoli are still 19 or lower on Kalshi while the book sits at +370, the exchange is the venue where the home side is cheapest, by about 1.2 points and about $28 on a $100 position, and the version of that bet with the draw removed, "no" on Arsenal against Napoli +0.5, is where the two venues split widest of all, by three points. Re-run every one of those at the live quotes, because a board that repriced Saturday's result by three cents will price Wednesday's team sheet at whatever it is worth in the hour before kickoff.
Price-shopping is the entire edge on a match where the venues split by two points on two legs, and doing it by hand across a dozen books and an exchange is the slow way. OddsShopper does the comparison automatically and flags the prices in your favor. The 7-day OS Pro trial is free, and code MARADONA20 is good for 20% off your first payment after it.
