The 2026 NFL season kicks off Wednesday night, September 9, when New England visits Seattle in a rematch of a Super Bowl LX the Seahawks won 29-13. Every team is 0-0 for about 24 more hours. Kalshi has turned that fact into a contract: 32 separate yes-or-no markets, one per team, each asking whether that team will be the last remaining undefeated team of the 2026-27 regular season. As of September 8, 2026, traders make Baltimore the favorite at 13 cents, with the Los Angeles Rams right behind at 12. We handed all 32 teams to a panel of eight AI models and let none of them see a single price.
New to event contracts? Our step-by-step guide to trading NFL markets on Kalshi covers how these work before you read another line of this board.
The Quick Answer
The panel and the market agree on Baltimore, which is unusual and worth saying plainly. Baltimore trades at 13 cents, which works out to 10.7% once the 32 prices are rescaled to add to 100, against an 11.8% model blend. Every cents-versus-blend comparison below uses that same de-vig column, explained at the bottom of the page. Everywhere else they part company. The eight models cut the Los Angeles Rams from 12 cents to a 6.0% blend, the widest disagreement on the board. This contract does not reward being the best team. It rewards surviving the first month, and the Rams open against San Francisco, the Giants, at Denver, at Philadelphia and against Buffalo. The panel instead pushes up Houston, 5 cents against a 7.9% blend. It does the same for Kansas City, 7 cents against 8.5%. Both teams have a bye week landing exactly where this contract has historically been decided. — The Model Verdict panel
- Market Favorite: Baltimore Ravens, 13¢ on a board whose 32 prices total 122¢
- Panel Favorite: Baltimore Ravens, 11.8% blend, and all eight seats put them first
- Widest Disagreement: Los Angeles Rams, 12¢ against a 6.0% blend
- What The Panel Weighs Most: a bye week counts as a free survival week under these rules, and can win the contract outright
- Settles: as soon as the last unbeaten team loses, which most seasons means November. The contract's outside expiration is on or about January 11, 2027
What 16 seasons of results say about how long this usually lasts, the full 32-team board, the four teams that carry the story, and a plain-English read on the rules are all below.
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The Market At A Glance
| Market | Pro Football Last Undefeated Team: which team stays undefeated the longest in the 2026-27 regular season |
| Venue | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of September 2026) |
| Ticker | KXNFLLASTTOLOSE-27, 32 separate yes-or-no contracts, one per team |
| Measured By | The week of each team's first loss, not the exact day. A tie game does not count as a loss |
| Settles And Pays | The contract closes and expires early once the outcome is decided. Its outside expiration is on or about January 11, 2027, after the regular season ends January 10 |
| Bye Rule | A team on a bye is treated as still undefeated that week. If the only other unbeaten team loses in that same week, the bye team wins outright |
| Tie Rule | Teams that lose in the same week are tied. Yes positions then pay $1 divided by the number of tied teams |
| Market Favorite | Baltimore Ravens, 13 cents |
| Panel Favorite | Baltimore Ravens, 11.8% blend |
| Prices As Of | Kalshi, read September 8, 2026 |
| Verdicts Generated | September 8, 2026, price-blind |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or betting advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state to participate. Prices were read as of September 8, 2026 and refresh as the season develops.
The Rule That Changes The Whole Question
Read the contract language and this stops being a power ranking. Every quotation in this section comes from the published rules for the KXNFLLASTTOLOSE-27 markets, read on September 8, 2026. Kalshi settles on "the team that stays undefeated the longest, measured by the week of their first loss." Three consequences follow, and each one moves real probability around the board.
A tie is not a loss. A team sitting at 5-0-1 is still undefeated for this market. Ties are rare, but they are free survival.
A bye week is a free survival week. This is the big one. The rules say a team on a bye "is treated as still undefeated that week; if the other last undefeated team loses that same week, the team on a bye wins, regardless of what happens the following week." A team can win this contract while sitting at home watching. Kansas City's bye falls in Week 5. Detroit's falls in Week 6. Houston's falls in Week 8. Those are not scheduling trivia here. A bye landing in the week the field collapses decides the contract on its own.
Same-week losses are a tie, and ties split the payout. If the last two unbeaten teams both lose in Week 7, one on Thursday and one on Sunday, they are tied, and a winning yes position collects $1 divided by the number of tied teams rather than the full dollar. That has happened in three of the last 16 seasons.
Sixteen Seasons Of How Long This Actually Lasts
We computed this from completed game results for every regular season from 2010 through 2025. The column that matters is the last week in which any NFL team still had zero losses.
| Season | Last week with an unbeaten team | Team or teams that got there |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4 | Kansas City |
| 2011 | 14 | Green Bay |
| 2012 | 9 | Atlanta |
| 2013 | 10 | Kansas City |
| 2014 | 4 | Arizona, Cincinnati |
| 2015 | 15 | Carolina |
| 2016 | 6 | Minnesota |
| 2017 | 5 | Kansas City |
| 2018 | 8 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2019 | 9 | San Francisco |
| 2020 | 12 | Pittsburgh |
| 2021 | 7 | Arizona |
| 2022 | 9 | Philadelphia |
| 2023 | 5 | Philadelphia, San Francisco |
| 2024 | 10 | Kansas City |
| 2025 | 4 | Buffalo, Philadelphia |
The median is Week 8.5 and the mean is Week 8.2, with a range from Week 4 to Week 15. Three of the 16 ended in a tie. The distribution is lumpy at both ends. Three seasons died in Week 4 and two more in Week 5. At the other extreme, Green Bay's 13-0 start carried 2011 to Week 14, and Carolina's 14-0 carried 2015 to Week 15.
The franchise tally is the number that should reframe how you read the board. Kansas City has been the last unbeaten team, or tied for it, four times in 16 seasons. Philadelphia has done it three times, Arizona and San Francisco twice each. Arizona's 2014 and 2021 appearances and Minnesota's 2016 are the tell: this contract is regularly won by a good team with a soft September, not by the best team in football. The average number of unbeaten teams still standing after Week 4 across those 16 seasons is 2.6. After Week 5 it is 1.8, and after Week 6 it is 1.3.
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The Board
The narrow view first, built to read on a phone. "Kalshi" is the live market price in cents. "De-vig" rescales those cents so the whole board adds to 100. Each team trades in its own separate yes-or-no book, and the 32 ask-side prices happen to add to 122 cents rather than 100, so the raw cents overstate every team a little. "Opp win %" is the average 2025 record of the opponents each team faces in Weeks 1 through 8, so a lower number means an easier opening month. "AI blend" is the middle answer of the eight models after their revision round.
| Team | 2025 record, point diff | Bye | Opp win %, Wks 1-8 | Kalshi | De-vig | AI blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 8-9, +26 | 13 | .408 | 13¢ | 10.7% | 11.8% |
| Detroit Lions | 9-8, +68 | 6 | .424 | 10¢ | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11, +34 | 5 | .597 | 7¢ | 5.7% | 8.5% |
| Houston Texans | 12-5, +109 | 8 | .450 | 5¢ | 4.1% | 7.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6, +54 | 10 | .474 | 6¢ | 4.9% | 7.4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 12-5, +172 | 11 | .515 | 12¢ | 9.8% | 6.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14-3, +191 | 11 | .559 | 7¢ | 5.7% | 4.9% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12-5, +66 | 8 | .529 | 4¢ | 3.3% | 3.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | 12-5, +116 | 7 | .580 | 5¢ | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7, +10 | 9 | .441 | 3¢ | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| New England Patriots | 14-3, +170 | 11 | .537 | 3¢ | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Denver Broncos | 14-3, +90 | 10 | .566 | 2¢ | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 9-7-1, +31 | 11 | .467 | 5¢ | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-4, +138 | 7 | .588 | 3¢ | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6, +28 | 7 | .538 | 5¢ | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9-8, +11 | 6 | .492 | 3¢ | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| Chicago Bears | 11-6, +26 | 10 | .562 | 4¢ | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9, -31 | 10 | .463 | 2¢ | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8-9, -48 | 11 | .533 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7-9-1, -40 | 14 | .445 | 4¢ | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-9, +54 | 13 | .485 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11, -78 | 6 | .513 | 6¢ | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-9, -69 | 5 | .517 | 2¢ | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 7-10, -77 | 6 | .445 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-11, -77 | 8 | .429 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-12, -100 | 11 | .463 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Washington Commanders | 5-12, -95 | 7 | .567 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| New York Giants | 4-13, -58 | 8 | .408 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Tennessee Titans | 3-14, -194 | 9 | .419 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| New York Jets | 3-14, -203 | 13 | .452 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-14, -133 | 14 | .614 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14, -191 | 13 | .522 | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.5% |
More live boards from the same panel: College football's version of this exact question, where Notre Dame leads at 39¢ on a field the panel fades top to bottom. NFL best regular-season record, where the Rams are the favorite at 16¢ and the panel prefers Seattle. NFL playoff teams 2026, where the Rams price at 80¢ to reach the field. Prices fetched September 8, 2026.
Every Seat's Number
The full per-model board for the top 12. The striking thing is how tight the seats are on the names that matter: all eight put Baltimore first, all eight land Houston between 7.0% and 8.0%, and all eight put the Rams between 5.5% and 6.5%.
| Team | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | Grok | Kimi | GLM | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% |
| Houston Texans | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| New England Patriots | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Denver Broncos | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 90% on 2,256 graded calls · Claude Opus 90% on 2,378 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 88% on 2,355 graded calls · GPT 86% on 8,999 graded calls · Gemini 87% on 7,680 graded calls · Grok 85% on 6,396 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 3,836 graded calls · GLM 84% on 3,557 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Every figure above is a model estimate. It is not financial advice, and it is not a prediction of fact. A ninth seat returned numbers that did not add up to a complete set of outcomes across the 32 teams on two attempts, so it is not in this blend. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, and you can see the running record on the full graded scoreboard.
Baltimore Ravens: The Softest Seven Games In Football
Baltimore drew the easiest opening stretch in the league by a clear margin. Their first seven opponents went a combined .366 by 2025 win percentage, the softest seven-game start any team was handed: at Indianapolis (8-9), New Orleans (6-11), Dallas (7-9-1) at a neutral Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Tennessee (3-14), at Atlanta (8-9), at Cleveland (5-12), Cincinnati (6-11). Add the Week 8 trip to Buffalo and the figure is .408, a mark only the Giants match across the first eight weeks. The first team on the schedule that finished 2025 above .500 is Buffalo, in Week 8, on the road.
The quality case underneath it is the part the record hides. The Ravens went 8-9 last season with a positive point differential of plus-26, which almost never happens to a genuinely bad team. Lamar Jackson's hamstring cost him three games, knee, ankle, toe and back problems followed, and his rushing production collapsed from 915 yards on 139 attempts to 349 on 67. Baltimore also changed head coaches for the first time in 18 years, firing John Harbaugh and hiring Jesse Minter, with Harbaugh landing in New York with the Giants.
Opus put the compounding math plainly:
"I price those roughly .60/.75/.62/.80/.62/.68/.72, which leaves ~14% alive after Week 5 and ~7% after Week 7, well clear of any other team, before the first genuine test at Buffalo in Week 8." — Opus
The counterweight, which the panel named itself, is that Baltimore's bye does not arrive until Week 13, long after this contract is usually settled. They get no free week at all during the window that matters.
Los Angeles Rams: The Super Bowl Favorite With The Wrong Draw
The Rams are the shortest price to win Super Bowl LXI at +500 after trading with Cleveland for Myles Garrett, trading with Kansas City for cornerback Trent McDuffie and making him the highest-paid cornerback in league history on a four-year, $124 million extension, and watching Aaron Donald come out of retirement to line up next to Garrett. They carry the second-best 2025 point differential in the league at plus-172. On this particular board they are the panel's widest disagreement with the market: 12 cents against a 6.0% blend, with all eight seats between 5.5% and 6.5%.
The reason is the calendar. Los Angeles opens against San Francisco at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Australia, the first NFL regular-season game ever played there, kicking off Thursday night US time and Friday morning locally. Then the Giants, then at Denver (14-3 in 2025), then at Philadelphia (11-6), then Buffalo (12-5). Four of the Rams' first five opponents won at least 11 games in 2025, and two of those games are on the road. Their bye is Week 11.
This is the cleanest illustration of what the contract actually measures. Being the best team in the league raises your chance of winning any single game. It does nothing about the fact that you have been handed five coin flips before Halloween while Baltimore has been handed one.
Houston Texans: The Bye Week That Lands On The Median
Houston is the board's quietest number and the place the eight seats agree most closely with each other: 5 cents against a 7.9% blend, with every seat landing between 7.0% and 8.0%. The Texans won 12 games in 2025 with a plus-109 differential, and after a Week 1 date with Buffalo their next six games contain only one winning team from 2025. In order: Cincinnati (6-11), at Indianapolis (8-9), Dallas (7-9-1), at Tennessee (3-14), Jacksonville (13-4) at Wembley Stadium in London, the Giants (4-13), and then a bye in Week 8. Buffalo in Week 1 and that London date with Jacksonville in Week 6 are the two games that decide whether this contract ever matters for Houston.
Look back at the ledger and read the column carefully. It records the last week in which a team still had zero losses, so the median season's survivor was alive through Week 8 and beaten by Week 10. The average season has fewer than one unbeaten team left standing after Week 8. Houston's free week sits inside exactly that window.
"Only week 1 vs Buffalo is a coin flip, then CIN/IND/DAL/TEN/JAX/NYG, with a week 8 bye that is a free survival week under the rules." — Fable
Kansas City Chiefs: Four Times In Sixteen Seasons
No franchise has been the last unbeaten team more often than Kansas City, which has done it in 2010, 2013, 2017 and 2024. The 2026 version is priced at 7 cents against an 8.5% blend, and the seats got there by two different routes.
Patrick Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee on December 14, 2025 against the Chargers, ending a season Kansas City finished 6-11. He was a full participant in training camp and was reported in July as on track to start the Monday night opener against Denver on September 14, which is nine months after a multi-ligament knee repair. Check the Week 1 injury report before you treat that as settled. That return is the reason the panel does not read the 6-11 the way the bare record would suggest. Then come Indianapolis, at Miami, at Las Vegas, and a Week 5 bye.
That bye is why Kansas City moves. Five of the 16 ledger seasons ended in Week 4 or Week 5, and a team sitting on a bye in the week the field collapses wins outright.
"That IND-MIA-LV-BYE sequence maximizes the chance they are alone or co-last when others play and lose in Week 5." — Grok
The push back is equally concrete, and it is why the blend sits at 8.5% rather than higher. Kansas City has the second-hardest first eight weeks in football at .597, and the post-bye stretch is the Chargers, at Seattle, at Denver. The Chiefs also traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams in the same offseason, so the roster Mahomes returns to is not the one he left.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
Pittsburgh Steelers, 3¢, 3.5% blend. Sonnet raised them from zero after reading the schedule: "I also added PIT (0→4.5) after noticing its SoS8 of 0.441 is the third-softest in the league, a fact no forecaster flagged but the data card supports." [Editor's note: .441 is the sixth-softest opening schedule in the league on our numbers, and the third-softest among plausible contenders. The ranking is off; the direction is right.] Pittsburgh plays Cleveland twice and Cincinnati once in the first eight weeks, with a Week 9 bye.
Denver Broncos, 2¢, 3.0% blend. Denver went 14-3 in 2025 and prices at two cents here, almost entirely because the opening month is brutal: at Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Rams, at San Francisco, at the Chargers. They are the rare team the panel rates above its price purely on quality.
New Orleans Saints, 1¢, 1.0% blend. The Saints have the fifth-softest first eight weeks at .429 and a Week 8 bye in the same slot Houston has. The catch is Weeks 1 and 2: at Detroit and at Baltimore, against two of the three teams at the top of this board.
Indianapolis Colts, 1¢, 1.5% blend. An 8-9 team with a positive plus-54 differential, opening at home against Baltimore. Winning that game would both start their own run and end the market favorite's.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Each seat read the other seven's anonymized reasoning and could revise. Four of the eight changed their top pick, all of them toward Baltimore, and the arguments that moved them were mechanical rather than reputational.
"Raised BAL from 7.0% to 12.5% because Forecasters A and B's specific per-game compounding through the 0.408 SoS8 (and the positive-PD-with-injured-Lamar quality signal) correctly showed I had underweighted the softest true-contender runway on the card. Cut KC from 9.5% to 6.5%: G's 'soft elite runway' claim understates week 1 vs Denver (14-3) and KC's 0.597 SoS8." — Grok
"I moved Baltimore from 9.5% to 14% and made them my top pick, and cut Kansas City from 13.5% to 8.5%. Forecasters A, B, C and E made the specific mechanistic case I had underweighted: Baltimore's first seven opponents contain no team that should be favored against a healthy Lamar, so their probability of being alive after week 7 (~7%) is roughly double KC's." — Kimi
The most useful entry is from a seat that held its ground while conceding the argument. Opus kept Baltimore on top and raised Kansas City only partway:
"I raised KC from 6.8 to 9.0 and HOU from 7.0 to 7.8. Forecasters F and G made a mechanism argument I had underpriced rather than a ranking claim: KC's Week 5 bye lands precisely where the survivor pool historically drops from ~2.6 to ~1.8, and rule (c) makes a bye an outright win over a team that loses that week. I did NOT move to the 13.5-16% KC numbers, because KC's SoS8 is the second-hardest in the league." — Opus
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
- Baltimore Loses In Indianapolis On Sunday, September 13. The market favorite's entire case is a seven-game run with no favored opponent in it. A Week 1 loss takes 13 cents to zero and hands the board to Detroit and Houston.
- Houston Beats Buffalo In Week 1. Houston's only real obstacle before its Week 8 bye is the opener. Clear it and Houston has the structurally cleanest path on the board.
- Mahomes Is Limited Or Ruled Out For The Denver Opener On September 14. The entire Kansas City repricing rests on him being the quarterback the Chiefs did not have while going 6-11. A snap-count restriction or an inactive designation collapses that number.
- The Field Thins To One Team By Week 5. In five of the last 16 seasons the last unbeaten team was gone by Week 5. If that happens again, the contract turns on bye-week placement rather than on which roster is better.
Settlement Timeline
| Season Opens | Wednesday, September 9, 2026, New England at Seattle |
| First Full Sunday | September 13, 2026, 13 games including Baltimore at Indianapolis |
| Kansas City's Opener | Monday, September 14, 2026 vs Denver |
| First Bye Week That Can Decide This | Week 5, October 8-12, 2026, when Kansas City and Carolina are off |
| Historical Median Resolution | The field is usually empty by Week 9 or 10, November 2026 |
| Regular Season Ends | Sunday, January 10, 2027 |
| Contract Expires | Early once the last unbeaten team loses, otherwise on or about January 11, 2027 |
This page is re-scored when the story moves. Prices and model numbers carry the September 8, 2026 stamp above, and once real games start knocking teams out, the board changes fast.
How To Read These Prices
A price in cents is the market's rough probability. Thirteen cents means traders collectively think Baltimore has about a 13% chance, and a winning contract pays one dollar. Each of the 32 teams trades in its own separate order book, and the prices in this table are what a buyer would pay right now. Those 32 numbers add to 122 cents rather than 100, partly because a buyer always pays the higher side of a spread, so the "de-vig" column rescales them to add to 100 for a cleaner comparison against the model numbers.
One habit worth keeping: the model blend and the market price are two independent readings, not a signal and a target. Our panel has been graded against real settlements thousands of times, and when it disagrees with a price by a wide margin, the price has been right about two-thirds of the time. The value of the gap is that it tells you where the interesting argument is, which on this board is the Rams and Houston.
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The Bottom Line
Kalshi's last-undefeated board is priced like a power ranking, and the contract is not one. It is a survival question, decided in most seasons before Halloween, and won more often by a decent team with a kind September than by the best roster in football. The market and our panel agree that Baltimore is the right favorite, for exactly that reason: the softest seven games in the league and a quarterback whose 2025 was an injury report.
Where they split is instructive. The Rams are the Super Bowl favorite and open with four playoff-caliber teams in five weeks. Houston sits at 5 cents with a bye landing on the historical median week. Kansas City has done this four times in 16 seasons and gets a bye in Week 5, by which point five of those 16 seasons had already produced their last unbeaten team. Every one of those numbers gets graded in public in January.
