Omega European Masters Odds: Three Shots Clear, Still Not Even Money

Updated September 10, 2026 · 20 min read · by Jake Hari

Paul Casey led the Omega European Masters by three shots with 18 holes to play, and as of 4:25 a.m. ET on Sunday, September 6, 2026, his Kalshi contract to win the DP World Tour's Swiss stop was 44¢ bid and 45¢ asked. He teed off on Saturday at Crans-sur-Sierre four shots behind the defending champion with that same contract worth four cents. He played the front nine in 29 and signed for a 63, and by the time the last group finished the contract was trading in the mid-40s.

The whole story of the board that morning was in that price, and it is worth being precise about it. Casey's contract was 44¢ bid and 45¢ asked. Not 50. Not 60. A 49-year-old with a three-shot lead on a golf course he had just torn up was, in the exchange's judgment, slightly less likely than not to be holding the trophy that evening. He was not. He shot 68, bogeyed the 72nd hole to fall into a playoff, and lost it on the fourth extra hole to Thriston Lawrence, who had started the day six shots back with his contract at half a cent.

That price was the argument of this page. On Thursday, September 3, I gave nine AI models the finished round-one leaderboard and asked them to price the field without seeing a single quote, and the median of the nine put Casey at 0.6%. The market that afternoon had him at 0.95¢, less than a cent, and he was still four cents when he teed off on Saturday. Both were wrong in the same direction, and the grade on that is below, in full. But the more useful question was the one the exchange was answering that morning: on a course where 13 of the last 22 editions were settled by a single shot or a playoff, what is a three-shot lead actually worth? Kalshi said 44 cents, and 44 settled at zero. The man who was 28¢ on Saturday morning, and touched 53¢ on Friday, was half a cent bid, and I will come back to him, because his collapse was the best explanation I had for why the favorite was not priced higher, and because he is the man who won.

The Quick Answer

Thriston Lawrence won the 2026 Omega European Masters on Sunday, September 6, from six shots back: a bogey-free 62, then an 18-foot birdie on the fourth playoff hole to beat Paul Casey. His Kalshi contract was 0.5¢ bid and 1.2¢ asked at 4:25 a.m. ET that morning and settled at $1.00 at 12:23 p.m. ET; Casey's, 44¢ bid then and 95¢ with a hole to play, settled at zero, and so did the other 68 contracts still live that morning. The AI panel's top pick on September 3, priced without a quote, was Lawrence at 6.8%. As of September 10, 2026, all 163 contracts are settled. The Sunday-morning board with its settlement columns, every trade that took the two contracts from 44¢ and half a cent to zero and a dollar, and the grade on the panel's Thursday card are all below.

New to this? A Kalshi contract settles at either a dollar or nothing, so a price in cents reads across as a rough percentage, and 44¢ is the market saying "about a 44% chance." Here is how golf contracts work on the exchange if you want the full version first.

Saturday Rewrote The DP World Tour Leaderboard

Through 36 holes this was Thriston Lawrence's tournament. He followed Thursday's 64 with a 63 on Friday to lead at 13-under, and the market followed him up: his contract printed as high as 53¢ during Friday's second round and spent Saturday morning in the high 20s. Casey, at 9-under after 67-64, was four back and in the pack.

Then Saturday happened. Casey birdied six of seven holes on the front nine and turned in 29, per Golf Channel's report, via Yahoo Sports. A birdie at the last made it a 63 and a 16-under total. Three other men matched the 63: Maximilian Steinlechner, Erik van Rooyen and Bernd Wiesberger. Lawrence shot 73, three over par, and fell from first to a share of 10th at 10-under.

The result is a leaderboard with a clear shape. Casey alone at 16-under. Four men at 13-under: Steinlechner, van Rooyen, Lopez-Chacarra and Nacho Elvira. Angel Ayora, who was the market's favorite on Thursday afternoon, alone in sixth at 12-under after a 66. Then a wall of 17 players at 10-under and 11-under that includes Lawrence, Matt Wallace, Rasmus Højgaard, Patrick Reed and Harry Hall.

Ashun Wu, who led after Thursday's 63, shot 68-70 and shared 24th at 9-under. The cut fell at 3-under after 36 holes, 70 players survived it, and Kalshi had settled 93 of its 163 contracts to No by Friday evening. The 70 that remained live going into Sunday were one per man with a tee time.

What A Three-Shot Lead Is Worth At Crans-sur-Sierre

As written on Sunday morning, September 6, before the final round. When this page was first built I pulled all 22 editions of the tournament from 2003 through 2025 rather than trusting anyone's memory of them, and those numbers matter more today than they did on Thursday.

The median winning score at Golf-Club Crans-sur-Sierre is 17-under. Sixteen of the 22 winners reached 15-under or deeper. Ten of the 22 editions went to a playoff and three more were decided by a single stroke, which means 13 of 22 came down to one shot or none. This is a 6,830-yard par 70 at Alpine altitude. The card has five par 3s and only three par 5s, a second-shot golf course where the ball flies further than the yardage suggests, and the winner is usually the man who made the most birdies rather than the man who avoided the most bogeys.

History says 16-under with a round to play is not a lead here so much as a par: the median winner gets to 17, and 16 of 22 reached 15 or deeper. Casey needed a 69 to reach the median. The four men on 13-under needed a 66 to match it and a 65 to pass it, and a 63, the score four players shot on Saturday, would have got one of them to 20-under, within two of Lawrence's 22 last year, the deepest winning score in the 22 editions I pulled. History also says three shots at this place evaporate. Casey himself had turned a four-shot deficit into a three-shot lead in a single round.

Two things about Sunday were fixed. The final group, Casey with Steinlechner and van Rooyen, teed off at 12:00 local time, 10:00 UTC, 6 a.m. ET. Lopez-Chacarra, Elvira and Ayora were the group ahead at 11:49. And the weather, per Open-Meteo's Crans-Montana forecast run pulled at 4:25 a.m. ET, was dry all day with the wind under 4 km/h from 9 a.m. through midday, building to 10 or 11 km/h with gusts to 24 km/h between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. local time, which was exactly when the last groups would be on the back nine. In American terms that is a 7 mph breeze gusting to about 15. Calm for the front, a little air for the finish, and nothing in it that defends a lead on its own.

Then there is Casey. He is 49, born in July 1977, and he has 15 DP World Tour wins, the last of them the Dubai Desert Classic in January 2021, five years and eight months ago. He joined LIV Golf in July 2022 and has played the DP World Tour only sparingly since, which is why his 2026 form line on Thursday's card was blank. He now lives in Switzerland, he had a wrist injury earlier this season, and on Saturday night he said, per Sky Sports reporting, that all of his prize money this week will go to the charity for the victims of the New Year's Day bar fire in Crans-Montana, which killed 41 people and injured 115.

None of that is a reason to price him higher or lower. It is the context for the number.

The Board On Sunday Morning

Prices below are Kalshi's quotes as of September 6, 2026 at 4:25 a.m. ET, about 90 minutes before the final group teed off, kept exactly as the page carried them that morning. The two right-hand columns are new: what each contract had traded by the time it settled, and how it settled. I quote bid and ask for every golfer rather than the last trade, because on a board that has moved this fast the last print is often stale, and the midpoint of the two is the number I use for the share column.

The 70 live contracts' midpoints added up to 103.35 cents. On Thursday the same board summed to 122.3. That extra 3.35 cents is the exchange's overround, the same job a sportsbook's vig does, and the "market share" column divides each midpoint by 103.35 to strip it out. Most of that tightening is mechanical: 93 contracts settled to zero at the cut and took their bid-ask residue with them. But the 70 survivors are also quoted tighter than Thursday's board was, and 2.25 million contracts in 24 hours will do that. Casey's contract alone did 339,622.

Two rows below are accounting lines rather than golfers. The rest of the field is the 54 other survivors of the cut with their prices added together, and Calum Hill sits inside it because his book shows no bid against a 2¢ ask, which is not a price the market has made. The Panel (Sept 3) column is the median of nine AI models that priced this field after round one, without seeing a quote. It has not been re-run since. It is here to be graded, not to be believed, and its rest-of-field figure is everything the seats gave to names outside these 16 rows, including the 93 who missed the cut or never teed off.

Golfer	Through 54	Sunday tee (local)	Kalshi bid / ask (4:25 a.m. ET)	Midpoint	Market share	Panel (Sept 3)	Volume (at close)	Result
Paul Casey	-16 (1)	12:00	44 / 45¢	44.5¢	43.1%	0.6%	1,118,816	No (2nd, playoff)
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra	-13 (T2)	11:49	9.9 / 11¢	10.45¢	10.1%	5.8%	467,868	No (T4)
Nacho Elvira	-13 (T2)	11:49	7.7 / 8.9¢	8.3¢	8.0%	1.5%	269,749	No (T11)
Erik Van Rooyen	-13 (T2)	12:00	7.0 / 7.8¢	7.4¢	7.2%	0.7%	212,231	No
Maximilian Steinlechner	-13 (T2)	12:00	5.9 / 6.4¢	6.15¢	6.0%	0.7%	264,844	No
Angel Ayora	-12 (6)	11:49	5.0 / 5.6¢	5.3¢	5.1%	5.0%	607,866	No (T4)
Keita Nakajima	-11 (T7)	11:38	2.3 / 2.7¢	2.5¢	2.4%	1.4%	209,489	No
Matt Wallace	-10 (T10)	11:11	1.5 / 1.7¢	1.6¢	1.5%	3.4%	355,420	No (T9)
Rasmus Højgaard	-10 (T10)	11:11	1.4 / 1.7¢	1.55¢	1.5%	2.1%	309,740	No (T11)
Todd Clements	-11 (T7)	11:38	1.4 / 1.5¢	1.45¢	1.4%	2.0%	154,442	No
Francesco Laporta	-11 (T7)	11:38	1.2 / 1.5¢	1.35¢	1.3%	0.6%	106,061	No (T4)
Patrick Reed	-10 (T10)	11:00	0.9 / 1.4¢	1.15¢	1.1%	5.4%	562,146	No (T11)
Harry Hall	-10 (T10)	11:00	0.9 / 1.3¢	1.1¢	1.1%	3.7%	497,568	No (3rd)
Antoine Rozner	-10 (T10)	11:11	0.8 / 1.2¢	1.0¢	1.0%	1.2%	133,121	No
Thriston Lawrence	-10 (T10)	10:38	0.5 / 1.2¢	0.85¢	0.8%	6.8%	1,966,333	Yes, $1.00 (won)
David Puig	-10 (T10)	10:49	0.6 / 1.1¢	0.85¢	0.8%	3.4%	144,134	No
The Rest Of The Field (54)	—	—	—	7.85¢	7.6%	55.7%	5,174,234	No (all 54)

• Every panel number on this page has been graded in public now that the market has settled, and you can read the whole ledger on the full graded scoreboard.

The row I kept coming back to that morning was not Casey's. It was the four men on 13-under, who had played the same 54 holes to the same score and were priced four cents apart on the bid. Lopez-Chacarra, 9.9¢ bid, was the market's second choice by a distance. Elvira was next at 7.7. Van Rooyen and Steinlechner, who both shot 63 on Saturday and both played in Casey's group, were 7.0 and 5.9. The exchange is not pricing Saturday's round; it is pricing the résumé. On the season card the panel read on Thursday, Lopez-Chacarra won twice in June, at the KLM Open and the Italian Open, and Elvira won the Dubai Invitational in January; both were on the panel's list of proven winners. Van Rooyen has a single DP World Tour start on that card, and Steinlechner has 21 starts without a win. Neither made the list, and the market had them cheapest of the four despite the freshest form. Whether a 63 on Saturday or a trophy in the spring is the better predictor of a 65 on Sunday was the exact question the panel argued about on Thursday, and the market had quietly taken the panel's side of it. None of the four shot the 65. Lopez-Chacarra's 67 was the best of them, good for a share of fourth; Elvira shot 69 and finished T11.

One more number from the book itself. At 4:25 a.m. ET there were eight contracts bid at 44¢ on Casey and 30,432 contracts offered at 45¢. Anyone who wanted to buy the favorite that morning could take 30,000 of them at the ask before the price moved. Anyone who wanted out had eight contracts of bid to sell into before the price started moving against them. That is what a 44/45 book looks like an hour and a half before a final round: deep on the side the market is happy to sell you, thin on the side it is not. The side it was happy to sell settled at zero.

If you would rather hold a sportsbook ticket than an exchange contract, the outright numbers on the books move on the same information and rarely at the same speed, and the live odds screen shops the golf number across every major book side by side.

More live boards from the same panel: the Presidents Cup board has Team USA at 79¢ bid, 80¢ asked, unchanged from Sunday morning, with the World team at 15/16¢; the Italian Grand Prix winner board settled the same afternoon, to Andrea Kimi Antonelli, with George Russell's 51/52¢ contract going to zero; and our Kalshi golf picks hub walks through how the exchange's golf markets settle. Prices fetched September 10, 2026.

What The Price History Did

As written on Sunday morning, September 6, from a tape fetched at 4:25 a.m. ET; Sunday's trading is in the next section. Kalshi publishes every trade, so the repricing of Paul Casey can be read hour by hour rather than guessed at. Times below are UTC; Crans-Montana is two hours ahead.

Casey's contract traded at 4.0¢, flat, from Friday evening through 09:00 UTC on Saturday. In the 11:00 hour, as his front nine unfolded, 17,928 contracts changed hands, the price traded between 5¢ and 44¢, and the hour closed at 23¢. In the 12:00 hour, 62,285 contracts traded and the high print was 50¢. That was the highest print on his contract through Saturday, and it came in the middle of the round, not after it. By 13:00 the sellers had arrived: 45,943 contracts traded in that hour, and for the first time more of them were initiated by sellers than buyers, 26,360 against 19,583, with the price sagging to 18¢ at the low before recovering. From 15:00 onward it traded between 39¢ and 46¢ and mostly in the middle of that.

Sunday morning, up to that point, was all buyers. Between 8 p.m. ET on Saturday and 4:26 a.m. ET on Sunday, 132,660 contracts traded on Casey and about 94% of them were initiated by the buy side. The largest print on his contract through that morning came at 07:13:47 UTC: 21,636 contracts at 46¢, a buyer lifting the offer. That trade and the 30,432-contract wall at 45¢ tell the same story from opposite sides. There was a lot of money that thought 45¢ was fair, and a lot of money that thought it was cheap, and the book had stopped moving because the two had met.

Now the callback. Lawrence's contract traded as high as 53¢ during his Friday 63, three cents above Casey's highest print through Saturday. At 05:29 UTC on Saturday a single buyer took 9,002 contracts at 28¢, the largest purchase of his contract through that morning. In the 12:00 hour on Saturday, as his round came apart, 65,734 contracts traded and 40,793 of them were sellers hitting the bid, and the price went from 25¢ to 5.8¢ inside the hour. By 15:00 it was 0.8¢, and two blocks of 13,016 and 10,381 contracts were sold at that price. He was 0.5¢ bid on Sunday morning, from 53 on Friday, and every one of those 28¢ contracts bought on Saturday morning was worth half a cent on the bid. That is what a lead is worth at Crans-sur-Sierre when the man holding it shoots 73. The market watched it happen on Saturday, and it was the best explanation I had for why a three-shot lead was 44¢ rather than 60. The next section is what those half-cent contracts did on Sunday.

The other print worth knowing about belongs to Elvira. His contract traded as high as 44¢ during Saturday's 13:00 hour, on 50,176 contracts, when his position briefly looked like the strongest on the course. He shot 68 and finished three back, and it closed the day under 9¢. Lopez-Chacarra's largest print in that tape was a 16,667-contract buy at 13¢ at 07:07 UTC on Sunday, which made the second favorite a Sunday-morning conviction rather than a Saturday one, and one already three cents offside: by 4:25 a.m. ET his book was back to 9.9/11.

What Moved Since The September 6 Board

Everything on this board moved between 4:25 a.m. ET and 12:23 p.m. ET on Sunday, and Kalshi's trade tape lets the day be read one print at a time. Times below are UTC again; ET is four hours behind.

Lawrence teed off at 08:38 UTC, six shots back, and his contract was already 7¢ before Casey's 10:00 UTC tee time. Casey went off at 43¢ and traded to 49¢ inside his first 15 minutes. Then Lawrence's birdies started landing faster than Casey's. At 11:17:41 UTC, with Casey barely an hour into his round, a sweep of Lawrence's thin book printed as high as 68¢, and within the next half hour Casey's traded down to 4.6¢ in a 15-minute stretch that saw 23,826 of his contracts change hands. Neither extreme was a price the book held: Lawrence's 15 minutes closed at 16¢ and Casey's at 16¢ too, which is what two contracts look like when the market has stopped believing in the leader and has not yet decided on the chaser. Lawrence's 62, eight birdies and no bogeys, put him in the clubhouse at 18-under with the final group still on the course, per the Associated Press report at NBC Sports, and a man in the clubhouse has nothing to do but watch his own price.

What he watched was Casey's back nine. Four birdies took the favorite from 28¢ at 13:00 UTC to 63¢ by 13:45 and to 90¢ by 14:30, and the first of 11 prints at 95¢ or better came at 14:59:41. Nine seconds before that, at 14:59:32 UTC, with Casey a shot clear at 19-under and the 72nd hole still to play, Lawrence's contract traded at 0.6¢, a price it had not seen since 08:54 UTC, 16 minutes after he teed off, and 2,911 contracts changed hands at a cent or less in that minute. The clubhouse leader was, for a moment, back where he had traded at breakfast.

Then the 72nd hole. Casey's approach from the right rough came out heavy, landed short of the stream, hit a rock and bounced over the water into deep rough, per the AP; he chipped to 20 feet and the par putt caught the left lip. The price history has the shape of it. In the 15 minutes from 15:00 UTC, the ones that held the approach, the rock, the chip and the lip-out, Casey's contract traded from 68¢ down to 3¢, and Lawrence's from 3¢ to a high of 69¢ on 81,121 contracts, his busiest 15 minutes of the day before the settlement itself. By the half hour Casey was back to 74¢ and Lawrence 27¢: the two of them were in a playoff at 18-under, and the market's first read was that the man who had just lipped out was still the one to beat.

The playoff was four trips down the 18th, and the market repriced Casey on every putt: a 35-footer for the win on the first extra hole, a 10-footer on the second that slid by on the right, an 8-footer on the third after the pin was moved to the back. Between 15:15 and 16:00 UTC his contract traded everywhere from 9¢ to 95.9¢. The 95.9, 991 contracts at 15:52:20 UTC in a second that also printed 95 five times, was the highest print of his week, and the last time his contract traded above 95. Lawrence then made an 18-footer for birdie on the fourth, and at 16:08:01 UTC a single buyer lifted 9,919 Lawrence contracts at 97.9¢ while three blocks of Casey, 6,161, 5,323 and 5,124 contracts, were sold at 1.1, 1.8 and 2.3¢ in the same second. Trading closed at 16:22:49 UTC. Kalshi settled the last 70 contracts in two batches, one at 16:06 UTC and the other 69, Lawrence's Yes among them, at 16:23:55 UTC, 12:23 p.m. ET. It was Lawrence's third title here in five years, after 2022 and 2025, and per the AP it made him the first three-time winner of this event since Seve Ballesteros.

The volume tells you which side the crowd was on. Between 08:00 UTC and the close, Lawrence's contract traded 911,421 contracts and Casey's 714,523. On Casey, 66% of that was initiated by buyers over the day as a whole; on Lawrence it was 48%, because the sellers had slightly more of it. At settlement Lawrence's contract had traded 1,966,333 contracts, the most on the board, Casey's 1,118,816, and the 163 contracts together 15,848,890. The 70 survivors accounted for 12.55 million of that, nearly four times the 3.29 million the 93 cut-missers had traded when they settled on Friday.

The fourth lever from Sunday morning, the one that was not on any leaderboard, resolved against the favorite. It was the playoff rule: lose in extra holes and the contract pays what a missed cut pays. Casey's did, one putt short four times, and the 11th playoff in the 23 editions I have on record was decided at 18-under, one past the median winning score of 17. The rest of the top of the final board, per the DP World Tour's final leaderboard as reported by Golf News Net: Harry Hall alone in third at 17-under after a 63, from 0.9¢ bid that morning; Angel Hidalgo, Bernd Wiesberger, Francesco Laporta, Angel Ayora and Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra tied fourth at 16-under; Joel Girrbach and Matt Wallace T9 at 15-under; Joakim Lagergren, Patrick Reed, Rasmus Højgaard and Nacho Elvira T11 at 14-under. Hall's contract printed as high as 24¢ in the 15 minutes from 13:15 UTC and settled at zero like the other 68.

The Panel Column Is Frozen. Here Is Its Grade

The nine models priced this field on Thursday afternoon, after round one, and I have not run them again. The column is on the board so that it can be judged against the market it disagreed with, and now that every contract has settled the judgment is complete.

Paul Casey: panel 0.6%, market then 0.95¢, market Sunday morning 44/45, settled No, second after the playoff. No seat printed him above one percent. The highest was Claude Opus at 0.92, and it is worth reprinting what that seat said at the time, because it was the only one arguing the point:

Where I hold against the group: Jeremy Paul at 2.3 and Paul Casey at 0.92. Most boards zeroed them purely because their 2026 line is empty, which is exactly the inference the card forbids […] — Claude Opus

Opus was right about the inference and still had him at less than one in a hundred. The card the models saw carried Casey's 2026 DP World Tour record, which was empty because he has been playing LIV Golf, and eight of the nine treated an empty line as evidence of absence rather than evidence of nothing. A 15-time winner on this tour with a multi-year gap in the data is not a 0.6% golfer after a 67 in round one. The market's 0.95¢ on Thursday was no better, and its 4¢ on Saturday morning was closer only by the difference between "almost never" and "nearly never." Neither process had a way to see the 29 coming, and I am not going to pretend the panel's miss was a near thing. One honest footnote: on the scoreboard, 0.6% on a contract that settled No goes down as a correct call. I do not count it as one. A golfer the panel gave less than one chance in a hundred was 95.9¢ in the playoff and one putt from paying, four times over, and the column's number was wrong by everything but the settlement.

Thriston Lawrence: panel 6.8%, market then 5.2% share (6.35¢), market Sunday morning 0.5/1.2, settled Yes, the winner. The panel's top pick, and its biggest overweight on the board at 1.6 points over the market. The nine seats weighted two Crans-sur-Sierre titles over eight missed cuts this season and were rewarded for it on Friday, when he led at 13-under and the contract touched 53¢. Then he shot 73. The panel's argument was that venue fit at this course is unusually sticky. Friday said yes. Saturday said it does not survive a three-over round with a 63 being shot behind you. Sunday said it survives a 62, from six back, and the frozen column's top pick is the one row on this board that paid. I want to be careful with that. The panel had him at 6.8% on Thursday, the market had him at 5.2%, and Sunday morning's 0.85¢ midpoint was the market's honest price for a man six shots behind. One graded call landing on a winner is a data point on the scoreboard, not a reason to trust the column over the book next week.

Angel Ayora: panel 5.0%, market then 7.8% share at 9.55¢, market Sunday morning 5.0/5.6, settled No, T4. This was the widest gap on Thursday's board and all nine seats sat below the market. By Sunday morning the market had come to the panel's number almost exactly. It got there for a different reason than the panel gave, which was that a one-shot margin after one round is not control of a tournament. Ayora followed his opening 64 with 68-66 to sit 12-under and alone in sixth, four back, then shot a Sunday 66 for a share of fourth at 16-under. The panel's number was right; its reasoning was about round one, and the leaderboard did the rest.

Ashun Wu: panel 3.9%, market then 3.9%, market Sunday morning 0.2/0.3, settled No. The one row where both processes agreed, and both were right to be unimpressed. 68-70 after the opening 63.

The four at 13-under: panel 5.8, 1.5, 0.7 and 0.7 for Lopez-Chacarra, Elvira, van Rooyen and Steinlechner. The market had them at 10.1, 8.0, 7.2 and 6.0 on Sunday morning, and all four settled No. The panel had Lopez-Chacarra close to the market and the other three well under it; all four settled No, so on the scoreboard the lower numbers were the better ones, and the Thursday-price-against-Sunday-price comparison is context rather than a grade. It did have Lopez-Chacarra first and Elvira second among the four, the same top two the market had that morning, which is the one thing about the frozen column that has aged well: the seats ranked the two proven winners correctly and mispriced how many of the others would still be standing.

The pattern. On Thursday the page's central finding was that the panel put 38.2% of its probability on 21 men who had won at Crans-sur-Sierre or on the DP World Tour in 2026, against the market's 28.3%, and that 18 of the 21 were priced below the panel's figure. Casey was not one of the 21. He has no Crans-sur-Sierre title and no 2026 DP World Tour win, so the panel's own "proven winner" test excluded the most proven winner in the field. Of the five men at the top of the board on Sunday morning, two passed the test (Lopez-Chacarra and Elvira) and three did not (Casey, van Rooyen, Steinlechner). The test found two of the five. It missed the leader, and it had the eventual winner, six shots back, at the top of its column.

Every Seat's Number (The September 3 Card, Unchanged)

This is the table the page carried on Thursday, printed exactly as it was, with Thursday's quotes and Thursday's market share. Nothing in it has been updated; that is the point. Gap is the panel figure minus the Sept 3 market share.

Golfer	Sept 3 quote (¢)	Sept 3 share	Claude Fable	Claude Opus	Claude Sonnet	GPT	Gemini	Kimi	Grok	GLM	DeepSeek	Panel	Gap
Thriston Lawrence	6.35	5.2	8.0	6.4	5.8	6.2	7.5	7.0	6.8	7.0	6.8	6.8%	+1.6
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra	6.90	5.6	6.5	4.5	6.0	5.3	6.0	5.8	5.5	5.5	6.2	5.8%	+0.2
Patrick Reed	5.50	4.5	5.3	3.1	6.2	4.8	5.5	5.4	5.2	6.0	5.7	5.4%	+0.9
Angel Ayora	9.55	7.8	6.0	5.8	5.5	5.1	5.0	4.5	4.6	3.9	4.2	5.0%	-2.8
Ashun Wu	4.75	3.9	4.8	4.5	4.0	4.0	3.5	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.1	3.9%	0.0
Harry Hall	6.40	5.2	4.8	4.3	3.8	3.7	4.0	3.2	3.7	2.4	3.1	3.7%	-1.5
Matt Wallace	2.80	2.3	3.8	1.4	4.3	2.8	3.2	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.6	3.4%	+1.1
David Puig	3.10	2.5	3.2	2.5	4.2	3.3	3.5	3.5	3.4	2.7	3.6	3.4%	+0.9
Nicolai Højgaard	1.80	1.5	2.0	1.0	2.8	2.0	2.5	3.0	2.5	2.9	2.6	2.5%	+1.0
Rasmus Højgaard	1.95	1.6	2.0	1.1	2.6	2.1	3.0	2.8	2.3	2.1	2.1	2.1%	+0.5
Casey Jarvis	1.90	1.6	2.0	1.4	3.2	2.0	1.8	2.2	2.3	1.9	2.1	2.0%	+0.5
Todd Clements	3.70	3.0	2.5	3.0	2.4	2.5	2.0	1.7	1.9	0.8	1.2	2.0%	-1.0
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	2.65	2.2	2.2	3.3	2.0	2.4	1.8	1.7	1.8	0.8	1.6	1.8%	-0.4
Jayden Trey Schaper	1.80	1.5	1.8	1.4	2.2	1.8	1.5	1.9	2.1	1.7	1.9	1.8%	+0.3
Marco Penge	1.95	1.6	1.7	1.0	2.0	1.7	1.5	2.1	2.1	0.9	2.1	1.7%	+0.1
Ryan Gerard	2.55	2.1	1.5	0.7	2.3	1.7	2.2	2.4	2.0	0.9	1.6	1.7%	-0.4
Nacho Elvira	0.95	0.8	1.5	1.4	1.8	1.3	1.4	1.9	1.7	1.4	1.9	1.5%	+0.7
Keita Nakajima	2.60	2.1	1.5	1.3	1.5	1.4	1.2	1.7	1.4	0.8	1.6	1.4%	-0.7
Shubhankar Sharma	1.15	0.9	1.5	1.9	1.4	1.6	1.5	0.8	1.0	0.8	1.0	1.4%	+0.5
Adrian Meronk	1.45	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.0	1.2	1.5	0.8	0.6	1.4	1.2	1.2%	+0.0
Antoine Rozner	3.35	2.7	1.0	1.4	1.2	1.1	1.4	1.0	1.2	1.2	1.6	1.2%	-1.5
Davis Bryant	1.90	1.6	1.0	1.6	1.4	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.1	0.9	1.0	1.2%	-0.4
The Rest Of The Field	25.4	20.8	15.4	17.2	11.7	15.5	13.4	14.0	17.6	18.3	15.6	15.5%	-5.3
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements; a record is the share of settled yes-or-no calls that landed on the right side, not a return on investment. Records to date: Claude Fable 87% on 1,529 graded calls · Claude Opus 87% on 1,601 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 85% on 1,577 graded calls · GPT 85% on 7,849 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 6,535 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 3,113 graded calls · Grok 84% on 5,491 graded calls · GLM 82% on 2,935 graded calls · DeepSeek 81% on 2,979 graded calls. Records as of the September 3 run; the full scoreboard is public.

Paul Casey does not appear in that table because on Thursday no seat printed him above one percent and the table only carried the panel's top 22. He had his own line on Thursday's card, at 0.6%, ranked below the table's cutoff, and on Sunday morning he was 43% of the board on his own. Read the whole column with that in mind, and with the settlement beside it: the top row paid, and the 43% did not.

Sunday's Levers

These are the three things I wrote on Sunday morning that would move the board before it settled, kept as written; how each one played is in the section above.

The first six holes. Casey's Saturday 29 came from six birdies in seven holes on the front nine, and every one of the four men chasing him needs the same kind of start to make the back nine matter. The price history says the market reacts inside the hour: Casey's own contract traded between 5¢ and 44¢ in the 11:00 hour on Saturday while he was still on the course. If he is 2-under through six, expect the 45¢ wall to be gone. If one of the chasers is, expect it to be hit.

The wind after 2 p.m. The forecast is calm until lunch and gusts to about 15 mph from mid-afternoon, when the final group will be on the back nine. That is not weather that protects a lead. At altitude the ball is already carrying further than the yardage, and a 15 mph gust moves a wedge by a club, not two. If you are waiting for the wind to hold the chasers off, you are waiting for something the forecast does not contain, which is why this lever sits second on the list and not first.

The 17-under line. The median winning score here is 17-under. Casey is at 16. If the chasers believe the winner needs 19 or 20 today, they need a 64 or a 63, and Casey needs a 67 or a 66. Which of those two numbers wins is the wind's call, and the record has plenty of both.

There is a fourth lever that is not on any leaderboard. Ten of the last 22 editions went to a playoff. On Kalshi a playoff is just more golf: the contract settles on whoever is declared the winner, and a man who loses in extra holes settles at zero exactly as if he had missed the cut.

How the four played, in one paragraph. The front nine went the wrong way: Casey was level par for the day and two shots behind the clubhouse mark when Lawrence's 62 was posted, per the tournament's own report, and the 45¢ wall was gone by 10:30 UTC, with his contract at 4.6¢ by 11:30. The wind never entered any report I read of the finish; the birdies did, 62 and 63 among them. The 17-under line was beaten by one, 18-under winning and needing extra holes to do it. And the fourth lever, the playoff rule, paid Lawrence's contract a dollar and Casey's nothing.

When This Settled

Settled	Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 12:23 p.m. ET (16:23:55 UTC), about 15 minutes after Lawrence's putt; trading had closed at 12:22 p.m. ET
Final Round	Sunday, September 6; first group 7:35 a.m. local, final group 12:00 p.m. local (6 a.m. ET)
Playoff	Four extra holes on the 18th; Lawrence's contract paid $1.00, Casey's settled at zero
If A Golfer Withdraws Before Teeing Off	Kalshi resolves his Tournament Winner contract to No
Contracts Settled	163 of 163: 93 to No at the cut on Friday, September 4; the last 70 on Sunday, one at 12:06 p.m. ET and 69 at 12:23 p.m. ET, Thriston Lawrence's to Yes and the rest to No

This page re-scored when the story moved. The Sunday-morning prices and leaderboard were fetched together on September 6, 2026 at 4:25 a.m. ET, with round three complete and the leaders not yet off; the settlement payload, every Sunday trade on the Lawrence, Casey and Hall contracts, and the final leaderboard were fetched on September 10, 2026, and the results sit in the board's two right-hand columns and the section above it.

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The Bottom Line

A three-shot lead at Crans-sur-Sierre was worth 44 cents on Sunday morning, and the book told you which side it wanted to sell: 30,432 contracts offered at 45¢ against eight bid at 44. The 56 cents the market withheld were the price of a course where 13 of 22 editions had come down to a shot or a playoff, and this one made it 14 of 23. The man who led on Friday, shot 73 on Saturday and was half a cent bid on Sunday morning shot 62, and the playoff rule did the rest: Casey reached 95.9¢ in extra holes and settled at zero, exactly what a missed cut pays.

The panel that priced this field blind on Thursday had the leader at 0.6% and the winner at 6.8%, first in its column, and the market had them at 0.95¢ and 6.35¢. The market re-priced Casey from 4¢ to 44¢ to 95¢ to zero in a little over 30 hours. The panel's column never moved, and it has now been graded against a dollar and a zero, on this page, beside the numbers we printed on Thursday. The top row paid. The row it never printed above one percent finished one putt short, four times.

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