Braves vs Twins Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Wed 1:40 PM ET. On the mound: AJ Smith-Shawver (Braves) vs Taj Bradley (Twins). Moneyline: Braves -102 (FanDuel) at Twins +104 (Betcris) — best prices across 13 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Byron Buxton (+358) and Matt Olson (+406) lead tonight's Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 31 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 33 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 33 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 30 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 24 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 22 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 29 |
| Josh Bell (MIN) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 30 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 09:56 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Target Field: park index 92.2 · wind 6 mph.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +368 · NoVig +344
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — 14% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +460 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +436 · NoVig +426
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +436 · NoVig +426
- Josh Bell (MIN) — 21% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 58% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +506
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — 23% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +488
- Austin Riley (ATL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +466 · NoVig +506
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — 29% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +559 · NoVig +614
- Mike Yastrzemski (ATL) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +559 · NoVig +614
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-105). Bet now → Caesars
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes Matt Olson Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+334). Bet now
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Matt Olson Over 0.5 Total Stolen Bases (+12500). Bet now → TheScore
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-119). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes these plays:
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-118). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins. BGrebbs, JediModi, MisterMarkot post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
