Ben Rice (+337) and Pete Alonso (+363) lead tonight's New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +337 | Polymarket 🎁 | 22.9% | 30 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +363 | ProphetX | 21.6% | 33 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | +410 | Unibet | 19.6% | 31 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 32 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +440 | Fanatics | 18.5% | 18 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +475 | TheScore | 17.4% | 25 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 29 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 29 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 10:06 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: park index 106.5 · wind 3 mph.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — 87° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +363 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +363 · NoVig +344
- Ben Rice (NYY) — 87° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +337 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +284 · NoVig +308
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — 87° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +380 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +348 · NoVig +344
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — 87° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 48% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +372 · NoVig +365
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — 87° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +525 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +488
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — 87° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 48% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +456 · NoVig +426
- Heliot Ramos (NYY) — 87° air. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +506
- Ryan McMahon (NYY) — 87° air. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +466 · NoVig +525
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- JediModi on Tails likes Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+380). Bet now → BetRivers
- Bet Small Win Big on Tails likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+2245). Bet now
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails likes Luis Garcia Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+650).
- SEvansBets on Tails likes these plays:
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Carlos Rodón Over 12.5 Total Pitching Outs (+186). Bet now → Polymarket
More from these experts on New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles. Bet Small Win Big , Cobi O'Connell, JediModi, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
