Padres vs Mets Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Wed 1:10 PM ET. On the mound: Michael King (Padres) vs Robert Stock (Mets). Moneyline: Padres -120 (Betcris) at Mets +120 (FanDuel) — best prices across 11 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Manny Machado (+495) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+495) lead tonight's San Diego Padres @ New York Mets home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 32 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 33 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 33 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 32 |
| Ty France (SD) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 31 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 22 |
| Jared Young (NYM) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 29 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | +650 | Unibet | 13.3% | 27 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 09:05 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citi Field: park index 97.6 · wind 10 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — 87° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +475 · NoVig +471
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — 17% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · 87° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 47% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +525
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — 33% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · 87° air · punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +456
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — 87° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +475 · NoVig +488
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM) — 87° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +510 · NoVig +590
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — 87° air · punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +840 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +778 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +700
- Carson Benge (NYM) — 10% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · 87° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +710 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +669
- Ty France (SD) — 87° air. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- JediModi on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Fernando Tatis Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+450).
More from these experts on San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. JediModi posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for San Diego Padres @ New York Mets today? Manny Machado at +495 (PolymarketUS) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
