Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Wed 4:10 PM ET. On the mound: Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks) vs Payton Tolle (Red Sox). Moneyline: Diamondbacks +130 (Caesars) at Red Sox -135 (Betcris) — best prices across 14 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Wilyer Abreu (+450) and Willson Contreras (+465) lead tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 30 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 29 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 32 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 29 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +650 | Bally | 13.3% | 29 |
| Jordan Lawlar (ARI) | +700 | Bally | 12.5% | 25 |
| Tim Tawa (ARI) | +700 | Bally | 12.5% | 30 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +710 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.3% | 29 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 09:05 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Fenway Park: park index 79.2 · wind 11 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — 24% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +377 · NoVig +376
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +488
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +387 · NoVig +365
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — 15% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +539 · NoVig +441
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — 13% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +760 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +700
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — 29% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at Caesars | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +809
- Adley Rutschman (BOS) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +614
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — 27% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +700
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Paul Rami on Tails (#6 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Boston Red Sox -0.5 Run Line 5I (-115). Bet now → NoVig
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 Run Line (-150). Bet now
- BiscoBets on Tails likes Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I (+180). Bet now → FanDuel
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Over 4.5 Total Runs 1st5 (-105). Bet now → Fanatics
More from these experts on Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox. BGrebbs, BiscoBets, CharlieChip post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox today? Wilyer Abreu at +450 (Bet365) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
