Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates home run picks: this board was built for the Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates game on August 19, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Tigers vs Pirates Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Wed 12:35 PM ET. On the mound: Jackson Jobe (Tigers) vs Paul Skenes (Pirates). Moneyline: Tigers +135 (Betcris) at Pirates -140 (Caesars) — best prices across 11 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Brandon Lowe (+413) and Oneil Cruz (+491) lead tonight's Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +413 | NoVig | 19.5% | 27 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | +491 | Underdog 🎁 | 16.9% | 29 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 27 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +600 | DraftKings 🎁 | 14.3% | 30 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | +671 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.0% | 28 |
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) | +700 | TheScore | 12.5% | 30 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | +725 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.1% | 24 |
| Henry Davis (PIT) | +800 | Bet365 | 11.1% | 18 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 10:06 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at PNC Park: park index 91.2 · wind 9 mph.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +413 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +382 · NoVig +413
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +436 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · ProphetX +436 · NoVig +426
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +550 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +525
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · punishes sliders, and that is 41% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +866 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +866 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +733
- Colt Keith (DET) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +986 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +986 · ProphetX +804 · NoVig +770
- Brett Callahan (DET) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +755 · NoVig +770
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) — 24% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph. (model confidence A)
- books: best +610 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +580 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +567
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +718 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +718 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +590
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Over 7.5 Total Runs (-122). Bet now
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- MassMoneyline on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+124). Bet now
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+160). Bet now → Bet365
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-120). Bet now
More from these experts on Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates. BGrebbs, MassMoneyline, MisterMarkot, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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