Seiya Suzuki (+539) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (+573) lead tonight's Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 31 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 33 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 31 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 30 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 31 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +718 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.2% | 29 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +800 | Fanatics | 11.1% | 27 |
| Alex Bregman (CHC) | +900 | NoVig | 10.0% | 30 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 09:05 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Wrigley Field: park index 124.8 · wind 6 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +167 · NoVig +456
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +230 · NoVig +590
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — wind 6 mph straight into his power side · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 49% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +196 · NoVig +506
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +201 · NoVig +545
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — wind 6 mph straight into his power side · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · NoVig +590
- Michael Busch (CHC) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +284 · NoVig +700
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1000 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +778 · ProphetX +348 · NoVig +852
- Ian Happ (CHC) — wind 6 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +323 · NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes these plays:
- JediModi on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+300). Bet now → TheScore
- TheMick23 on Tails likes Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+309). Bet now
- @BettingPix on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Luis Castillo Over 16.5 Total Pitching Outs (-105).
More from these experts on Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs. @BettingPix, JediModi, TheMick23 post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs today? Seiya Suzuki at +539 (Polymarket) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
