Red Sox vs Marlins Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 6:40 PM ET. On the mound: Ranger Suarez (Red Sox) vs Sandy Alcantara (Marlins). Moneyline: Red Sox -130 (HardRock) at Marlins +122 (Betcris) — best prices across 22 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins board opens with Willson Contreras at +631 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 36 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 35 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 36 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | +750 | HardRock | 11.8% | 9 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +850 | Circa | 10.5% | 23 |
| Mickey Gasper (BOS) | +950 | Fanatics | 9.5% | 30 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | +953 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 9.5% | 29 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +950 | Fanatics | 9.5% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 24, 2026 · 03:45 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at loanDepot park: park index 88.3 · wind 6 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — homers every 19 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +549
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · NoVig +590
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — homers every 20 PA against lefties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +617
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — no edge in the conditions — hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +800 at Fanatics | exchanges: NoVig +770
- Agustín Ramírez (MIA) — homers every 30 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +875 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +823
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — homers every 30 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +882 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +770
- Adley Rutschman (BOS) — punishes sinkers and cutters 15% of the time, and that is 46% of what this starter throws · homers every 40 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +963 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +921 · NoVig +953
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +1200 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +1095
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Sandy Alcantara Under 18.5 Total Pitching Outs (-115). Bet now → Polymarket
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics · Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners · Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres · Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers · Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins today? Willson Contreras at +631 (PolymarketUS) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
