Phillies vs Mariners Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 9:40 PM ET. On the mound: Zack Wheeler (Phillies) vs Logan Gilbert (Mariners). Moneyline: Phillies -115 (Fanatics) at Mariners +110 (Betcris) — best prices across 20 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Kyle Schwarber at +320 headlines the Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +320 | Bet365 | 23.8% | 38 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 35 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 36 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 37 |
| Patrick Wisdom (SEA) | +600 | BetMGM 🎁 | 14.3% | 3 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +755 | Kalshi | 11.7% | 21 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PHI) | +820 | FanDuel 🎁 | 10.9% | 4 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | +920 | FanDuel 🎁 | 9.8% | 4 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 24, 2026 · 03:45 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at T-Mobile Park: park index 112.0 · wind 4 mph.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +301 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +301 · NoVig +292
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters 14% of the time, and that is 20% of what this starter throws · 45% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at BetMGM
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · homers every 19 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +510
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 37% of what this starter throws · homers every 20 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — on the bat alone — homers every 27 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at HardRock
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +857 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +857
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — homers every 31 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +804 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +778 · ProphetX +804
- Trea Turner (PHI) — homers every 30 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +857 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +857
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Ziny Bets on Tails likes Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-160). Bet now
- EMac on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Run Line (+165). Bet now → HardRock
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics · Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres · Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers · Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners today? Kyle Schwarber at +320 (Bet365) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
