Pirates vs Padres Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 9:40 PM ET. On the mound: Braxton Ashcraft (Pirates) vs Robbie Ray (Padres). Moneyline: Pirates +100 (Bet365) at Padres +100 (Fanatics) — best prices across 21 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Esmerlyn Valdez (+406) and Oneil Cruz (+500) lead tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 35 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 37 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +545 | NoVig | 15.5% | 38 |
| Rafael Flores (PIT) | +559 | ProphetX | 15.2% | 17 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 37 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 37 |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | +600 | BetMGM 🎁 | 14.3% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 24, 2026 · 03:45 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Petco Park: park index 100.0 · wind 3 mph.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +545
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — homers every 11 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +406
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 23% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · NoVig +545
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · homers every 21 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +567 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · NoVig +567
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — homers every 36 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- Gavin Sheets (SD) — homers every 24 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +725
- Ty France (SD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +666 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +666
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- ShanderBets on Tails likes Jared Triolo Under 0.5 Total Hits (+100). Bet now
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Henry Davis Over 0.5 Total Batter Walks (+242). Bet now → DraftKings
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Hits (+240). Bet now → TheScore
- MassMoneyline on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-110). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Robbie Ray Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
More from these experts on Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres. JediModi, MassMoneyline, PrizePick Champions , The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics · Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners · Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers · Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
