Cubs vs Diamondbacks Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 9:40 PM ET. On the mound: Kevin Gausman (Cubs) vs Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks). Moneyline: Cubs -130 (Bet365) at Diamondbacks +126 (Betcris) — best prices across 20 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Pete Crow-Armstrong at +358 headlines the Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 38 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 37 |
| Michael Conforto (CHC) | +567 | NoVig | 15.0% | 27 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 37 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 33 |
| Max Kepler (ARI) | +650 | BetMGM 🎁 | 13.3% | 3 |
| Lars Nootbaar (ARI) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 29 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 24, 2026 · 03:45 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Chase Field: park index 105.1 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +545
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — 36% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 18 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +358 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +358
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — homers every 21 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +529
- Michael Busch (CHC) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 33% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 76% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws · homers every 22 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · NoVig +590
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +917 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +917 · ProphetX +902
- Ian Happ (CHC) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at FanDuel
- Alex Bregman (CHC) — homers every 25 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +730 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · NoVig +700
- Tim Tawa (AZ) — homers every 26 PA against righties — but this starter's mix is an awkward one for him. (model confidence C)
- books: best +790 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +755
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EMac on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Ian Happ Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-177). Bet now → NoVig
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Over 9 Total Runs (-114).
More from these experts on Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks. BGrebbs, DFSnDonuts Picks, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics · Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners · Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres · Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers · Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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