Nationals vs Marlins Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sat 4:10 PM ET. On the mound: Jake Irvin (Nationals) vs Eury Pérez (Marlins). Moneyline: Nationals +166 (Betcris) at Marlins -175 (OnyxOdds) — best prices across 8 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Griffin Conine at +446 headlines the Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +446 | ProphetX | 18.3% | 36 |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 7 |
| Owen Caissie (MIA) | +529 | ProphetX | 15.9% | 36 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 36 |
| Andres Chaparro (WSH) | +650 | PointsBet | 13.3% | 2 |
| Daylen Lile (WSH) | +676 | ProphetX | 12.9% | 36 |
| Joe Mack (MIA) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 36 |
| Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 32 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:11 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at loanDepot park: park index 88.8 · wind 10 mph.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — 89° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +446 · NoVig +388
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — 89° air · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +588 · NoVig +567
- Owen Caissie (MIA) — punishes four-seam fastballs 21% of the time, and that is 31% of what this starter throws · 89° air — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +488
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — 89° air — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +525
- Joe Mack (MIA) — 89° air — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +614 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +614
- Dylan Crews (WSH) — 89° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +715 · NoVig +733
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — homers every 33 PA against righties · 89° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +698 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +647 · NoVig +614
- Brady House (WSH) — 89° air · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +951 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +951 · NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-117). Bet now → Kalshi
- EMac on Tails likes Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Brad Lord Under 2.5 Total Strikeouts (-107). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins. BGrebbs, DFSnDonuts Picks post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
