The WNBA best bets today come from a two-game Wednesday, August 26, and the card has a shape I have not been able to write all month: nine props cleared our de-vig across the two games, and every single one of them is an Under. Not a mood, a pattern with a cause. The Valkyries visit the Sun at 7:00 p.m. ET, the Tempo visit the Storm at 10:00 p.m. ET, and the nine rows split into two families. Two are fades of lines that chased hot Augusts, Kiki Rice's and Laura Juskaite's points numbers both sitting well above their season rates. Five more are one schedule bet wearing five prices: Golden State's deep rotation handles a tired Sun team, the fourth quarter shrinks, and every line resting on a season average tips to the cheap side. The eighth, Charlisse Leger-Walker's assists, is a Sun-side role read after Leila Lacan's departure, and the ninth, Flau'jae Johnson's assists, is a season-rate lean that only exists if her ankle lets her play. Run the de-vig on all of it and the cheap side comes back Under, nine times out of nine. And the widest edge in the entire capture is not even tonight: it is a Kelsey Plum Over for Thursday's Mystics-Mercury rematch, and I will make the case below for why that one gets bet today anyway.
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The Quick Answer
The best WNBA bet today is Veronica Burton Under 3.5 rebounds at +110 on Bet365, a +6.5% edge against our de-vigged fair price of -103, in the Valkyries-Sun game at 7:00 p.m. ET. Cecilia Zandalasini Under 1.5 threes (-120, Bet365, +5.0%) in the same game and Laura Juskaite Under 12.5 points (-110, Bet365, +3.7%) in Tempo-Storm are the next two. Nine rows cleared across the two games, all Unders, no game line cleared in either, and the widest number in the whole capture, Kelsey Plum Over 13.5 points at +105 for Thursday, is the one worth betting before the market catches up. The full board, the Rice career-high math, and the Plum early-bet case are below.
Odds captured 2026-08-26 at 19:42 UTC (3:42 p.m. ET). Every fair price in this piece is our own de-vigged number from the OddsShopper live odds screen, which strips the vig from both sides of a market so you can see what a bet is actually worth. The August 23 edition worked one game; this one works two, plus a Thursday number that will not wait.
Tonight's Lead: Veronica Burton Under 3.5 Rebounds
The early game is Golden State at Connecticut, 7:00 p.m. ET at Mohegan Sun Arena, the 26-11 Valkyries against a 10-27 Sun team playing its second game in two nights, with Brittney Griner and Olivia Nelson-Ododa both listed day-to-day with knee injuries.
Veronica Burton Under 3.5 rebounds, +110 (Bet365), fair -103, +6.5%. Start with what this bet is not: it is not a claim that Burton will have a quiet night. She is the Valkyries' engine, averaging 12.5 points, 5.6 assists, and exactly 3.5 rebounds in 28.7 minutes, per ESPN's game log, and she just put 14 points and nine assists on the defending champion Lynx in Monday's 80-66 win, Golden State's first over Minnesota in franchise history. The line sits precisely on her season average, and her recent log runs above it, which is exactly why this bet is priced off the market's number rather than hers. Strip the vig from both sides and the full field of books makes the Under a -103 proposition, a hair better than a coin flip. Bet365 is paying +110 for it. You are being handed dog money on the fair-favored side of a coin flip, a 13-cent overlay, and the widest edge tipping tonight.
Now the part that argues with me, because I am not going to pretend it is not there. Burton has grabbed four or more rebounds in seven of her last eight games: 4, 4, 4, 4, 6, 0, 4, 8, reading backward from Monday. If you stopped at the game log, you would take the Over. Here is why I do not. The rest of the market has already read the same log; that is exactly why the consensus fair sits at -103 instead of leaning Under harder, the way her line would have priced in June. The de-vig is not ignoring her recent boards, it is pricing them, and Bet365 is the one book still paying plus money against the number the market itself believes. There is also a depth lever, and I will show it instead of asserting it: five Valkyries scored in double figures on Monday — Zandalasini 18, Williams 15, Burton 14, Hayes 14, Salaün 12 — and that spread-the-wealth profile against a Sun offense averaging about 79 points a game, the league's lowest, is the script where no one starter has to carry the counting stats. The honest caveat is that Monday did not trim Burton's minutes; she played 30 and grabbed four boards. That is exactly why this row is priced as a coin flip, and why it is bet for the 13 cents, not the story. A rebound line this tight lives and dies on four minutes of garbage time. Take +110 or better; at even money the edge is gone.
What +6.5% Actually Buys You
Walk the row with me, because the lead edge tonight is smaller than the lead edges of the last few editions, and sizing should follow the math, not the headline slot. Value is price against true probability, never confidence in a narrative.
What the market believes. De-vigging the rebounds market leaves a fair price of -103 on the Under, a 50.7% implied probability.
What the price demands. At +110 you risk $100 to win $110, an implied break-even of 47.6%. The market hands you 50.7%; the price only asks for 47.6%.
What that pays. Run 50.7% through a +110 payout and the Under returns about six and a half cents of expected value per dollar risked, the +6.5% at the top of tonight's card. Honest +EV, and it still loses essentially half the time. One small ticket, not a pillar.
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The Rest Of Valkyries-Sun: Zandalasini's Arc And A Tired Home Team
Five more rows live in the early game, and they share one engine: Golden State's rotation is deep, Connecticut is running on one night's rest, and the de-vig keeps finding the same direction.
Cecilia Zandalasini Under 1.5 threes, -120 (Bet365), fair -134, +5.0%. The cleanest stat case on the card. Zandalasini makes 1.3 threes a game on 4.0 attempts, a 33.1% shooter from deep, and she has finished with one or fewer in five of her last eight games, per ESPN's game log: 2-of-8, 0-of-3, 1-of-9, 1-of-4, 1-of-3, 5-of-5, 1-of-3, 2-of-4. Our fair makes the Under a -134 favorite; Bet365 sells it at -120, a 14-cent overlay. The risk is volume, and I will name it precisely: her minutes have jumped — 30 on Monday when she scored 18 against Minnesota, 30 the Wednesday before — and her extended nights have carried as many as eight and nine attempts. A 33% shooter on four attempts expects 1.3 makes; on nine attempts the math flips to three. So the bet is that the 19 minutes she averages, not the two recent 30-minute nights, is the shape of a game Golden State controls with its full rotation, and that even her hot Monday still only produced two makes on eight tries. Half-size at -120 or better.
Veronica Burton Under 6.5 assists, -150 (Bet365), fair -158, +2.1%. The same player as the lead, the opposite recent-form problem. Burton has cleared 6.5 assists in five of her last eight, including Monday's nine, and she leads the league at 3.75 assists per turnover. The full-season rate, 5.6 a game, is why fair still favors the Under at -158, but eight cents of overlay at a -150 price against a player this hot as a passer is a shop-only row, not a ticket. If Bet365 moves a cent, let it go.
Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 3.5 assists, +110 (Bet365), fair +106, +1.9%. The Sun rookie out of UCLA averages 3.4 assists, so the line splits her season down the middle and fair calls the Under a small dog at +106. Four cents of overlay is thin on its own, and the roster context cuts against it: with Leila Lacan gone to join France's training camp ahead of the FIBA World Cup, per the team, Connecticut's playmaking has to come from somewhere, and Leger-Walker and Diamond Miller are the somewhere. Last night's 87-81 win over Chicago, behind Aaliyah Edwards' career-high 26 points plus 10 rebounds, was Connecticut's best night in weeks, and a confident young guard coming off it is not the profile I want to bet under on a coin-flip line for four cents. Shop-only: +110 or nothing.
Cecilia Zandalasini Under 12.5 points + rebounds + assists, -105 (Bet365), fair -109, +1.8%. Her combined line sits just above her 12.4 season PRA, and she has stayed under 12.5 in four of her last eight, which is exactly the coin flip fair says it is at -109. Four cents. Same volume risk as her threes row, without the same overlay to pay for it. Shop-only.
Gabby Williams Under 2.5 assists, -185 (Bet365), fair -193, +1.5%. Williams is the Valkyries' leading scorer now, not their table-setter; the offense initiates through Burton and her league-best 3.75 assists per turnover, and that role split is why our fair makes this Under a near two-to-one favorite at -193. The honest caveat is her history: she averaged 4.2 assists for Seattle last season, so the passing is dormant, not gone, and laying -185 to collect eight cents of overlay is the steepest price on the card. Shop-only, at -185 or better, and the last row I would add tonight.
The read on this game: six rows, two ideas. Golden State handles a tired 10-27 team and the deep-rotation fourth quarter trims every starter's counting stats (both Burton rows, both Zandalasini rows, Williams), and Connecticut's post-Lacan ball movement runs through its young guards, which is the one reason to leave Leger-Walker alone. Lead with Burton's rebounds, half-size Zandalasini's threes, shop everything else.
Tempo At Storm: The Two Lines That Chased August
The late game, 10:00 p.m. ET at Climate Pledge Arena, is Toronto (11-26) at Seattle (7-31), the two thinnest rosters on tonight's slate, and two of the three rows here are the same bet in different jerseys: a points line that got moved for a hot two weeks, and a season rate that says the move went too far.
Laura Juskaite Under 12.5 points, -110 (Bet365), fair -119, +3.7%. The Tempo rookie averages 10.1 points a game, and her line is sitting nearly two and a half points above it because August has been loud: 19 against Minnesota, 18 against Dallas, 12 against Portland, in 26 to 32 minutes, per her recent logs. Here is the thing about a line that moves for form: our de-vig, which reads both sides of the actual market, still makes the Under a -119 favorite even after the move. The market as a whole is quietly on the Under; Bet365's -110 is just the cheapest ticket to it, nine cents better than fair. Toronto's injury sheet is why she is playing this much at all: Marina Mabrey is out with an adductor injury, Brittney Sykes and Aneesah Morrow are done for the season, and Nyara Sabally is out with a calf issue. The volume is real, and that is the risk. The bet is that Seattle's game plan starts with the rookie who just torched two defenses, and that 12.5 sits well above the 10.1 she has averaged across the whole season. Half-size at -110 or better.
Kiki Rice Under 16.5 points, -110 (Bet365), fair -118, +3.3%. Same logic, sharper edge case. Rice is the best story on the Tempo right now, six straight games in double figures, fully past her midseason ankle sprain, playing 30-plus minutes in five of her last six. She averages 12.0 points a game, and her career high is 19, which she has now hit twice, including her 7-of-9 night against Portland on August 21. Look at what the line is asking: 16.5 is four and a half points above her season average and two and a half below the best game of her life. She has been over this number exactly twice all year, and both times it took the 19. Our fair makes the Under -118; Bet365 sells it at -110. The market moved her line for the streak, the streak is real, and the number still requires something close to a career night to beat you. Half-size at -110 or better, and if you want the framework for why an opponent-and-minutes read beats a hot-hand read on scoring props, the rebounds-prop version of it translates directly.
Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 assists, -120 (Fanatics), fair -124, +1.5%. The conditional row, and a familiar one: the same bet led the August 23 card. Johnson averages 13.8 points and 2.9 assists a game, which is why fair favors this Under at -124, but she is listed day-to-day with an ankle injury, so the row only exists if she is active. The complication is her backcourt: Natisha Hiedeman is out with a shoulder injury, and Jade Melbourne's 3.8 assists lead a team that does not have many other ball-handlers, so a limited-but-active Johnson might spend more possessions initiating than her season rate reflects. Four cents of overlay does not pay for two conditions. Shop-only, confirm she plays, and read the assists-prop playbook before deciding she is worth even that.
The Thursday Number That Will Not Wait: Kelsey Plum Over 13.5
I told you at the top the widest edge in this capture is not tonight, and here is the payoff. Thursday's rematch, Washington at Phoenix, 10:00 p.m. ET, is already priced, and the board's biggest number lives there.
Kelsey Plum Over 13.5 points, +105 (HardRock), fair -115, +9.5%. Plum made her Phoenix home debut on Tuesday night, her first game since the August 9 calf injury, and scored 10 points in 17 minutes of a 94-84 loss to these same Mystics. That 17-minute version of Plum is what her Thursday line is priced on, and our de-vig says the market has already stopped believing it: fair makes the Over a -115 favorite, a 53% shot, and HardRock is still paying +105, a 20-cent overlay, and no other player's number in this capture grades wider. The case is minutes, nothing fancier. Ten points in 17 minutes is a scorer's pace; game two back is when workloads ramp; and a Mercury team that has now lost to Washington by 20 and then by 10 needs the centerpiece of its midseason trade on the floor, not on a pitch count. This is also the textbook injury-return spot: bet the returning player before the minutes news balloons the line, because by Thursday afternoon, if Phoenix signals a full workload, +105 will be gone. The honest risk runs the other way, and it is real: if the calf keeps her on another 17-minute leash, the thesis is dead and the edge with it. That is why this is a small-limit early bet, placed today at +105 or better. If Thursday's report lists her with a setback or a minutes restriction, the thesis is dead and you pass on any remaining Plum exposure; that risk is exactly what the 20 cents is paying you for.
The satellite Plum rows. Over 14.5 points at +135 (Bet365), fair +115, grades the same +9.5%: you give up a point of cushion to buy the dog price, the same minutes thesis with a worse hit rate, half-size at most. Over 1.5 threes at +105 (Bet365), fair -101, is a 6-cent overlay on a coin flip; she was firing over six three-point attempts a game before the injury, so full minutes make it live, but it is shop-only.
Alyssa Thomas Under 7.5 assists, -102 (FanDuel), fair -105, +1.4%. The thinnest row in the capture, on the league's assists leader at 8.3 a game. Three cents of overlay against the best passer in basketball is the strictest kind of shop-only: the listed price or nothing, and I am printing it so you know I saw it.
The Full August 26 Board, Graded
Every number from this afternoon's capture that cleared fair, sorted by edge. Thirteen rows, three games, four books, and the Thursday rows are marked because tipping tomorrow is a feature of the bet, not a footnote. Confirm each price live before you act; several of these are edges where a few cents is the entire pick.
| Game (ET) | Bet | Best takeable | Fair | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics @ Mercury, Thu 10:00 | Kelsey Plum Over 13.5 pts | +105 (HardRock) | -115 | +9.5% | Bet early, small (timing risk) |
| Mystics @ Mercury, Thu 10:00 | Kelsey Plum Over 14.5 pts | +135 (Bet365) | +115 | +9.5% | Half-size alt (dog price) |
| Valkyries @ Sun, 7:00 | Veronica Burton Under 3.5 reb | +110 (Bet365) | -103 | +6.5% | Tonight's lead |
| Valkyries @ Sun, 7:00 | Cecilia Zandalasini Under 1.5 threes | -120 (Bet365) | -134 | +5.0% | Half-size (minutes risk) |
| Tempo @ Storm, 10:00 | Laura Juskaite Under 12.5 pts | -110 (Bet365) | -119 | +3.7% | Half-size |
| Tempo @ Storm, 10:00 | Kiki Rice Under 16.5 pts | -110 (Bet365) | -118 | +3.3% | Half-size |
| Mystics @ Mercury, Thu 10:00 | Kelsey Plum Over 1.5 threes | +105 (Bet365) | -101 | +3.2% | Shop only, full minutes only |
| Valkyries @ Sun, 7:00 | Veronica Burton Under 6.5 ast | -150 (Bet365) | -158 | +2.1% | Shop only (five hot games) |
| Valkyries @ Sun, 7:00 | Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 3.5 ast | +110 (Bet365) | +106 | +1.9% | Shop only (role rising) |
| Valkyries @ Sun, 7:00 | Cecilia Zandalasini Under 12.5 PRA | -105 (Bet365) | -109 | +1.8% | Shop only |
| Tempo @ Storm, 10:00 | Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 ast | -120 (Fanatics) | -124 | +1.5% | Shop only, if active |
| Valkyries @ Sun, 7:00 | Gabby Williams Under 2.5 ast | -185 (Bet365) | -193 | +1.5% | Shop only (worst risk shape) |
| Mystics @ Mercury, Thu 10:00 | Alyssa Thomas Under 7.5 ast | -102 (FanDuel) | -105 | +1.4% | Listed price or pass (thinnest row) |
The useful comparison is Plum against the two Toronto rookies, because Plum's Over, Juskaite's Under, and Rice's Under are all the same species of bet: a line that describes a player's last two weeks instead of her season. The difference is direction. Toronto's rookies had their lines raised for hot streaks, so the value pooled under them; Plum had her expectations cut for an injury she is already back from, so the value pooled over her. The de-vig does not care which story is more fun. It reads both sides of each market and points at the gap, and today the gap says fade the heaters you can see and buy the recovery the market has not priced yet.
The game lines all grade the same way, so I will do them in one pass. Valkyries at Sun, 7:00. Golden State, second in the league and four games behind Minnesota, visits a 10-27 team on a back-to-back, and the market knows every word of that sentence; nothing on the side or total cleared our board. Pass. Tempo at Storm, 10:00. Toronto is missing four rotation players and Seattle is home at 7-31, a matchup of the league's two thinnest teams, and the books have it priced tightly enough that nothing on the side or total cleared our fair. Pass. Two games, two full passes on the sides, and every documented dollar of value on this slate is in the player markets.
How To Bet A Board Like This
Nine live Unders, three Thursday Plum Overs, one thin Thursday Under, and a top tonight edge that is a coin flip in disguise. The discipline for this exact card:
- Burton Under 3.5 Rebounds Is The Only Full Ticket Tonight, At +110 Or Better. It is a 50.7% proposition being paid like a 47.6% one. If the price drops to even money, the edge is the vig and the bet is gone.
- Plum Over 13.5 Is The Board's Best Number, And The Whole Edge Is Timing. The market is still pricing Tuesday's 17 minutes; wait until Thursday's shootaround news and you are betting a different, worse number. Small limit, today, and if Thursday's report brings a setback, the thesis is dead and the rest of the Plum rows go with it.
- Zandalasini, Juskaite, And Rice Get Half. Two are fades of visible heaters, one is a minutes bet against a back-to-back. All three fair prices already account for the form; the overlay is the bet, not the narrative.
- Everything Below 3% Is The Listed Price Or Nothing. Burton's assists, Leger-Walker, the Zandalasini combo, Johnson if she plays, and Williams are shop-only. Thomas is a pass I printed so you would know I saw it.
- Cap Exposure Per Game, Not Per Row. The five shop-only Valkyries-Sun rows are one idea wearing five prices: Golden State wins comfortably and the fourth quarter shrinks. One unit across the cluster, weighted to the lead, is the same treatment the August 23 board got, and it keeps bankroll exposure where it belongs on a small-edge night.
- Price Any Parlay Before You Place It. Nine same-direction Unders look like a ready-made ticket and price like a trap, as I laid out in my WNBA parlay piece. Run any build through the parlay builder so the combined ticket gets the same fair-value test as the singles, and compare the shape against yesterday's parlay of the day before you copy either. When my own card has plays on it, it lives with the free expert picks on Tails, at my page.
The honest read on August 26 is that this is a small-edge Wednesday wearing a big-edge Thursday. Nine Unders cleared because two bad teams and one tired one had their player lines dragged up by hot Augusts, and the widest gap between price and fair belongs to a player whose game does not tip for another day. Burton's rebounds Under is the best thing you can bet tonight, and it is a coin flip with a good price, which is what most real edges look like. Plum's Over is the bet this edition exists to flag, and its window is measured in hours, not days. The Valkyries close their road back-to-back Thursday while Plum and the Mercury get another home crack at Washington, and with the playoff picture still sorting out the seeds behind Minnesota, Golden State's included, Thursday's edition will tell you whether the market closed the gap or we got there first.
- WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug 23: Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 Assists Leads
- WNBA Parlay Of The Day (Aug. 25)
- WNBA Playoff Picture: The Liberty's 8-Game Seed Race
- Best WNBA Parlay For Monday (7/13): The Boost Play
FAQ
What are the best WNBA bets today, August 26? Veronica Burton Under 3.5 rebounds at +110 on Bet365, against a de-vigged fair price of -103, is the widest edge tipping tonight at +6.5%, in the Valkyries-Sun game at 7:00 p.m. ET. Cecilia Zandalasini Under 1.5 threes at -120 on Bet365 (fair -134, +5.0%) in the same game, and Laura Juskaite Under 12.5 points at -110 on Bet365 (fair -119, +3.7%) in Tempo-Storm, are next. Nine props cleared fair across the two games, every one an Under, and no game line cleared in either.
Why is the biggest edge on the board a game that isn't tonight? Because Thursday's Mystics-Mercury rematch is already priced, and Kelsey Plum Over 13.5 points at +105 on HardRock, against a fair price of -115, is a +9.5% edge, matched in this capture only by its own alternate line. Plum played 17 minutes and scored 10 points on Tuesday in her first game back from a calf injury, and the market is still pricing Thursday off that 17-minute version. If her minutes ramp up in game two back, the number moves. That is a bet you make early or not at all.
Why is every bet on tonight's card an Under? Two reasons that point the same way. Kiki Rice's points line sits at 16.5, which she has cleared only twice all year on career-high 19-point nights, and Laura Juskaite's sits at 12.5 against a 10.1 average; both lines chased hot Augusts, so the value pooled under them. Most of the other rows sit on or near season averages in a spot with a minutes lever, a tired Sun team against Golden State's deep rotation, while Charlisse Leger-Walker's is a Connecticut role read and Flau'jae Johnson's is conditional on her ankle. Our de-vig strips the vig from both sides of every market, and it found nine Unders because that is where the cheap prices were, not because this column is negative.
Is Flau'jae Johnson playing tonight against Toronto? She is listed day-to-day with an ankle injury on the Storm's report, so confirm she is active before touching her Under 3.5 assists. She averages 2.9 assists a game, which is why our fair favors the Under, but with Natisha Hiedeman out with a shoulder injury Seattle may ask her to handle the ball more. Small edge, real conditions, shop-only.
Why did no game line make the card? The second-place Valkyries visit a 10-27 Sun team on the second night of a back-to-back, and Tempo-Storm pairs a 7-31 home team with an 11-26 visitor missing four rotation players. Neither moneyline, spread, nor total surfaced as a takeable number on our board in either game. A pass is part of the card; every dollar of documented value on this slate is in the player markets.
How should I size bets on a card like this? Small everywhere, smaller than usual. The widest edge tonight is +6.5% on a coin-flip line, so Burton's rebounds Under earns one small ticket at +110 or better. Rice, Juskaite, and Zandalasini's threes get half-size. Everything under 3% is the exact listed price or nothing. The Plum Over is a Thursday bet you place early and small, knowing a Thursday injury-report setback would kill the thesis; that timing risk is what the price is paying you for.
