Prices as of Monday, August 17, 2026, from Kalshi's live market data. They will keep moving through primary day.
Florida picks its U.S. Senate nominees on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, and the two primaries on that ballot could not be reading more differently on the tape. One of them Kalshi's market treats as finished. The other it treats as an argument that is still going, and where the late money is buying the side the headline price says is losing. This is the one page that prices both races next to each other, because the most useful thing about them is the contrast.
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The Quick Answer
On the Republican side, appointed Senator Ashley Moody is priced near 99¢ to win the nomination (about a 99% implied chance, roughly -9900 in sportsbook terms): a race the market closed months ago. On the Democratic side, retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman sits near 93¢ (about 93%, roughly -1300) against Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon at about 8¢ (roughly 7-8%, near +1150). But the Democratic board hides a tell the price does not: Nixon's contract now carries more lifetime volume and more open interest than the 93-cent favorite's, and her line took roughly 3,657 of the board's 5,094 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The money on primary eve is running at the underdog. Why the Republican race is a formality, what 8-cent Nixon money is actually paying for, what the November prices add, and how to watch Tuesday night are all below.
Two Races On One Ballot, And Only One Is Still Live
The two primaries exist for the same reason: Marco Rubio resigned Florida's Class III Senate seat to become Secretary of State, and Governor Ron DeSantis appointed former state attorney general Ashley Moody to hold it until this special election. That is why Moody runs as an incumbent who has never actually faced Florida voters for the office, and it is the through-line that explains both boards. The Republican establishment consolidated behind the appointee fast; the Democratic side did not consolidate at all, and the market can see the difference.
Here is the forward promise for the rest of this page: the single most interesting number in either race is not a favorite's price. It is a piece of participation data on the Democratic board that the 93-cent quote is built to make you skip. I will get there, but the Republican side has to come first, because the way that race closed is the reason the Democratic one stayed open.
The Republican Primary: A Race The Market Closed Months Ago
Kalshi's Republican nominee market (event KXSENATEFLR-26) prices Ashley Moody at a 99.1¢ bid against a 99.9¢ ask, last trade 98.4¢ as of August 17: an implied chance right up against certainty. Every other contract on that board is penny dust. And the reason is worth stating plainly, because it is where a careless read goes wrong.
| Republican Nominee (KXSENATEFLR-26) | Kalshi price | On the certified ballot? |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody (Appointed Incumbent) | ~99¢ | Yes |
| Ron DeSantis | ~0.1¢ | No — declined to be considered |
| Lara Trump | ~0.5¢ | No — declined to be considered |
Kalshi opened this market in 2025 with a wide field of names people guessed might run; several never filed. Prices are live as of August 17, 2026. Model estimates, not predictions of fact and not voting advice.
The row that tells the real story is Ron DeSantis at essentially zero on more than 24,000 contracts of lifetime volume. Early in the cycle, traders put real money on the idea that the governor, or Lara Trump, might take the seat. Those positions are still open — DeSantis alone shows more than 21,000 contracts of open interest — but they repriced to zero when both declined to be considered for the appointment and never entered the primary. The certified Republican ballot ended up being Moody plus a short list of little-known challengers, Chris Gleason, Neelam Taneja Perry, Ernest "Ernie" Rivera and Jake Lang among them, none of whom Kalshi prices above a penny. So when you see a headline "board" of famous Republicans, understand what you are looking at: a graveyard of names that never ran, sitting behind an appointee the party lined up behind. That is what a settled primary looks like in cents. Our full steelman for the favorite is here if you want the case in depth: Why Ashley Moody will win the Florida Republican primary.
The Democratic Primary: The One Still Being Argued
Now the race the market has not closed. Kalshi's Democratic nominee board (event KXSENATEFLD-26) prices exactly two names as alive, and they are the two who actually filed: Alexander Vindman and Angie Nixon. Between them, the two campaigns have raised more than $17 million combined, per campaign-finance reporting, with Vindman's roughly $14.5 million through June making up the bulk of it.
| Democratic Nominee (KXSENATEFLD-26) | Bid | Ask | Last | Lifetime volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Vindman | 92¢ | 93¢ | 93¢ | ~34,800 | ~25,500 |
| Angie Nixon | 7¢ | 8.5¢ | 7.8¢ | ~40,900 | ~31,000 |
| Jared Moskowitz | 0¢ | 0.9¢ | 0.9¢ | ~24,000 | ~6,400 |
| Charlie Crist | 0¢ | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | ~1,700 | ~1,400 |
| Josh Weil | 0¢ | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | ~6,500 | — |
Prices live as of August 17, 2026. The zero-bid names belong to Democrats whose lines went quiet when they did not enter this race — Crist filed for mayor of St. Petersburg, Moskowitz is running for reelection to the U.S. House. Model estimates, not predictions of fact and not voting advice.
Read that table for the favorite and it is a rout: Vindman at 93, an implied 93%, about -1300 to lay. Read it for participation and it is not a rout at all. Nixon's line carries more lifetime volume than Vindman's (roughly 40,900 to 34,800) and more open interest (roughly 31,000 to 25,500). A 93-cent favorite whose challenger has the bigger book is not a market that has stopped arguing; it is one where the money keeps taking the other side and the quote has not followed. That divergence is the number I promised at the top, and it is the whole reason this race, unlike the Republican one, is still worth watching.
The tell in one line: on the Republican board the favorite owns the deepest line and everything else is dust. On the Democratic board, the underdog owns the deepest line. That gap is the difference between a settled primary and a live one.
What Nixon Money At 8¢ Is Actually Buying
An 8-cent line is only interesting if you can say what is funding it, so here is the honest breakdown. In the last 24 hours of tape, the Democratic board traded about 5,094 contracts, and roughly 3,657 of them, about 72%, ran through Nixon's line. This is not a stale contract nobody touches; it is the most actively traded name on the board on primary eve, and the buying is going toward the underdog, not away from her.
That late money is not a prediction that Nixon wins. It is a bet on a specific mechanism. A national favorite like Vindman is priced on a profile that a poll of all adults rewards; a low-turnout August special-election electorate is smaller, more local, and more self-selected, the kind of room where a sitting Jacksonville state representative with a defined base and a progressive lane counts for more than a résumé. The Courthouse News framing of the race — a progressive insurgent against the Trump-impeachment witness — is exactly the split that turns out unevenly in a sleepy August primary. Callback to that open interest: with every other Democrat already priced out, every anti-Vindman contract on the board is, in practice, a Nixon contract. The money against the favorite has exactly one place to land, and it has been landing there.
Here is what I keep coming back to, and it is also the honest bear case: the price is still moving the favorite's way even as the volume leans the other way. Nixon's last trade sits at 7.8¢ against a 8.4¢ prior mark, so her price has held roughly flat even as the money poured in against the favorite, and 24 hours is very little runway to reverse an 85-point gap. A heavily funded losing side is still a losing side if the votes are not there. So the read is not that Nixon is secretly even money. It is that a board this actively traded, with the underdog's book this large, can reprice fast on a late poll or turnout signal. A contract bought near 8¢ could be sold into a firmer bid before the primary ever settles, or it could expire worthless if the vote does not show up; that is the trade, with both sides of it named. If you want the long-form version of that argument, we made it here: Why Angie Nixon will win the Florida Democratic primary.
The Shelf Above: What The November Prices Say
Both primaries feed one general election, and the market for it reframes everything below it. Kalshi's November winner market for this seat (SENATEFLS-26) prices the Republican party near 84¢ (about 84%, roughly -525) and the Democratic party near 16¢ (about 16%, near +525). The national backdrop is a midterm that often runs against the president's party, but the Florida market is plain that this red-leaning seat is not where that tide is expected to land: 84 cents to 16 is not a price that expects an upset.
That matters back down at the primary, and it is not just theory here; it is the likeliest explanation for the exact number this page keeps returning to. When a primary electorate believes November is uphill for whoever wins the nomination, the usual discipline of picking the safe, electable name loses its grip, and voters feel freer to nominate the candidate who actually speaks for them. That is precisely the behavior Nixon's order book is showing: her volume-and-open-interest edge over a 93-cent favorite is what "reduced electability discipline" looks like in cents, on a seat the same market treats as a long shot in November either way. The 84/16 general and the funded anti-favorite book are two readings of one belief. For the full chamber picture, our 2026 balance-of-power verdict prices the four control outcomes, and the 2026 Senate election odds board tracks every seat.
What To Watch Tuesday Night
The mechanics are simple, and they make Tuesday the settlement and the last signal at once. Each candidate's contract resolves Yes if that candidate wins the party nomination; the market closes on the official result. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time, and because Florida's western Panhandle sits in the Central zone, the final polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Three markers, in order of arrival. First, before the vote: any firming of Nixon's bid up through her current 8.5¢ ask while Vindman slips off 93 would say the money finally started moving the price, not just the volume. Second, early returns: watch whether the count comes in small and base-driven (good for the insurgent) or broad (good for the national favorite). Third, the Republican side needs no watching at all — a 99-cent line is the market telling you it has already graded that race, and Tuesday just makes it official. Florida is not the only 8/18 primary being priced this way, either; Alaska's top-four Senate primary settles the same night, and the same read-the-price discipline applies.
The Board
The two primaries and the November shelf they feed, from the same August 17, 2026 snapshot:
| Market | Contract | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Nominee (KXSENATEFLR-26) | Ashley Moody | ~99¢ | ~99% |
| Democratic Nominee (KXSENATEFLD-26) | Alexander Vindman | ~93¢ | ~93% |
| Democratic Nominee (KXSENATEFLD-26) | Angie Nixon | ~8¢ | ~7-8% |
| Democratic Nominee (KXSENATEFLD-26) | Jared Moskowitz | ~0.9¢ | <1% |
| FL Senate Winner, Nov (SENATEFLS-26) | Republican party | ~84¢ | ~84% |
| FL Senate Winner, Nov (SENATEFLS-26) | Democratic party | ~16¢ | ~16% |
The near-zero nominee contracts belong to names that did not file for this race; their last trades are stale marks from earlier in the cycle. Model estimates and live market prices for informational content, not predictions of fact and not financial or voting advice.
The single row I would frame this whole page around is the Vindman-Nixon pairing: a 93-cent favorite whose 8-cent challenger owns the bigger book. On a settled board — the Republican one, one shelf over — the favorite's line is the deepest and everything else is dust. On a live board, the underdog's line is the one carrying the volume. That contrast, more than any single price, is what tells you which of these two races is actually still being decided.
In Summary
Florida runs two Senate primaries on August 18, and the market has already made up its mind about one of them. The Republican race is a 99-cent formality: an appointed incumbent the party consolidated behind, with a board full of famous names who declined to run priced at zero behind her. The Democratic race is the opposite — a 93-cent favorite in Alexander Vindman whose price says rout and whose order book says argument, with Angie Nixon's 8-cent line carrying more volume and open interest than his and drawing three of every four contracts traded on primary eve. That does not make Nixon the favorite; the direction of the price is still against her, and eight cents is eight cents. It makes her the live alternative on the one board that has not stopped moving, run under a November the whole market treats as uphill for either nominee. When the polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern, the count settles both markets and grades every price on this page at once.
These prices are not free calls: every one will be graded in public once the markets settle, and the day's live prediction-market reads run through today's Kalshi picks. Election markets are their own lane here and are not carried on OddsShopper; if sports is your game instead, our free expert picks today hub carries this week's board.
FAQ
When is the Florida Senate primary and what time do polls close? Both Florida Senate special primaries are held on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time; because Florida's western Panhandle is in the Central zone, the last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. The primaries fill the Class III seat Marco Rubio vacated to become Secretary of State.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate primaries? As of August 17, 2026, appointed Republican Senator Ashley Moody is priced near 99 cents to win the Republican nomination. The Democratic side is a two-name contest: Alexander Vindman near 93 cents against Angie Nixon near 8 cents.
Why are candidates like Ron DeSantis and Lara Trump on Kalshi's board at zero? Kalshi opened its Florida nominee markets in 2025 with a broad list of names people speculated might run. Several never filed: Ron DeSantis and Lara Trump both declined to be considered for the appointment, Charlie Crist filed to run for mayor of St. Petersburg, and Jared Moskowitz is running for reelection to the U.S. House. Their contracts sit at a penny or less because they are not on the certified ballot.
Can I trade the Florida Senate primary on OddsShopper? No. These primaries trade as event contracts on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, and OddsShopper's tools cover the sports slate rather than election futures. What carries over is the method: read a price as an implied probability, then ask whether the number is too high or too low given what you know.
Where can I see how these market reads have scored? Every settled call from our prediction-market coverage is graded in public on the Model Verdict Scoreboard.
Prices cited are live Kalshi market data as of August 17, 2026 and will move through primary day. Candidate eligibility reflects the certified August 18, 2026 ballot as reported by Ballotpedia and Wikipedia. Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated event contracts for adults 18 and over (18+), and availability varies by state. This article is informational, not financial or voting advice, and does not advocate for or against any candidate or party.
