Trump Impeachment Odds: Will He Be Impeached?
Few questions carry more standing search demand than whether a sitting president gets impeached, and there is now a live, CFTC-regulated market putting a number on it. Kalshi runs a deadline ladder on whether the U.S. House impeaches President Trump before his term ends, and it prices him at 62 cents to be impeached at some point before January 2029. We had six AI models read that same ladder without ever seeing the price, and after a revision round they came back well under the market, near 38%, with the entire disagreement sitting on one thing: how likely a future House is to actually pull the trigger.
The Quick Answer
The market and our panel agree on the near term and split hard on the long term. Kalshi prices a House impeachment before January 1, 2028 at 62¢ and before the end of the term (January 20, 2029) also at 62¢, while pricing the current Congress at almost nothing (4¢ before January 2027). Our six-model panel, run price-blind, blended to 38% on that full-term question, roughly 24 points under the market, because it prices the odds that a new House majority actually impeaches lower than traders do. The whole story is the 2026 midterms: who wins the House decides whether this question is even live. The full model-by-model board, the House-control math driving it, and the model that cut its own estimate from 73% to 25% are all below.
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The Market
| Venue | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange (18+, availability varies by state, as of August 2026) |
| The Event | Kalshi series KXIMPEACH: "Will Trump be impeached?", a deadline ladder on whether the U.S. House impeaches President Trump during his current term |
| The Contract | Official rule, verbatim: "If the President of the United States has been impeached before [date], then the market resolves to Yes," with the secondary condition that "The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her." It resolves on House impeachment only, a simple-majority House vote, not a Senate conviction or removal |
| Last-Trade YES Prices | Before Jan 1, 2028: 62¢. Before end of term (Jan 20, 2029): 62¢. Before Mar 1, 2027: 24¢. Before Jan 1, 2027: ~4¢. Before Sep 1, 2026: 1¢. The interesting rungs carry tight two-sided quotes (1 to 2 cent spreads) on large open interest (100K to 600K contracts), so this is a liquid, actively quoted book. Prices as of August 3, 2026 |
| How To Read It | The ladder is a cumulative distribution over time. Each rung is the probability an impeachment happens before that date, so the numbers only rise. The shape, near zero now and 62 cents by 2028, is the market saying this is a post-midterm question |
What "Impeached" Actually Means Here
This market turns on a distinction that trips up most headlines: impeachment is not removal. The House impeaches by a simple majority of members present and voting, which is a formal charge. Removing a president then requires the Senate to convict by a two-thirds supermajority, an entirely separate and far higher bar. The Kalshi contract resolves Yes the moment the House passes a single article of impeachment while Trump holds office. It says nothing about a Senate trial, a conviction, or removal from the White House.
The historical record frames how rare even that first step is. In more than two centuries, only three presidents have ever been impeached by the House: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump, twice, on December 18, 2019 and January 13, 2021. Trump is the only president impeached twice, and in all four cases the Senate acquitted; no president has ever been convicted and removed. Each modern impeachment shares one structural feature that matters enormously here: it was passed by a House controlled by the party opposite the president. Clinton was impeached by a Republican House, Trump by a Democratic House. A House held by the president's own party has not, in the modern record, impeached him.
The Ladder, And Why It Steps Where It Does
| Deadline | Market YES (last trade) | AI blend | What it prices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | settled NO | n/a | Already past: no impeachment passed the current House |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1¢ | 2% | A vote in the next few weeks, under the current Republican House |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | ~4¢ | 2% | The rest of the current Congress acting |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 24¢ | 7% | A newly seated House impeaching within its first eight weeks |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 62¢ | 29% | An impeachment during the first year of the next Congress |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 62¢ | 38% | An impeachment at any point before the term ends |
Kalshi series KXIMPEACH, quotes retrieved August 3, 2026. The "before June 2026" rung's deadline has already passed with no impeachment, so it reads settled No. The AI blend is the equal-weight mean of six models after a revision round, described below.
Read the ladder across and the shape tells the whole story. The near rungs sit at the floor because the House that would have to act is Republican-controlled through the end of 2026, and both the market and the panel price almost no chance a party impeaches its own president. Then the ladder leaps. The 119th Congress runs through January 3, 2027, so the newly elected House, chosen in the November 3, 2026 midterms, is the first one that could plausibly bring an impeachment. That is exactly where the market steps up, from 4 cents before January 2027 to 24 cents by March 2027 to 62 cents by January 2028. The entire market is a bet on the midterms and what follows.
Prices refresh during the news cycle. The quotes on this page carry an "as of" date because a live board moves. Around the 2026 midterms, a shift in House-control expectations, or any concrete impeachment news, we re-read the market and update the stamp. The shape of the argument, near zero now and gated on November 2026, is what carries the piece, and the dated quote is the evidence.
The House-Control Math Driving It
Because this is fundamentally a House-control question, the real inputs are the 2026 midterm numbers, and we fed the panel the same live data we would use to price the House itself. Republicans currently hold the House by roughly 219 to 212 with four vacancies, one of the narrowest majorities in House history. The postwar base rate is punishing for the party in power: across 20 midterms since 1946, the president's party lost House seats in 18 of them, by an average of about 26 seats, with only 1998 and 2002 as exceptions, and both required a dominant national event that is not present now. The live generic-ballot polling as of early August sits around Democrats +5, and presidential approval is roughly 40% approve to 58% disapprove, both pointing the same direction as the base rate.
Put together, the models estimated a House flip in November as likely, in a range from about 60% to 90% across the panel. That is the first multiplier. The second, and the one that actually splits the panel from the market, is the conditional question: if the opposition wins the House, how often does that majority actually bring and pass articles of impeachment? Here the panel was far more cautious than 62 cents implies, and that gap is the entire disagreement on the board.
The Case For Yes (Why 62 Cents)
The bull case is the mechanism plus the record. If Democrats win the House, and the base rate says the party out of power usually gains in a midterm, then the single structural precondition for every modern impeachment, opposition control of the House, is in place. And this specific president has a track record: he is the only president in history impeached twice, both times by an opposition House, which tells you the appetite and the votes have materialized before. A market looking at a likely control flip and a twice-impeached incumbent can reasonably price the chain, control plus willingness, at better than a coin flip over a multi-year window. The 62-cent quote is essentially that argument.
The Case For No (Why Our Panel Says 38)
The bear case, and the reason the panel sits well under the market, is that the second link in the chain is weaker than it looks. Winning the House is not the same as impeaching. Bringing and passing articles requires holding a floor majority together on a politically costly vote, and a narrow majority may simply lack the votes or the will. The panel's sharpest counter-example was recent and direct: a House majority holding an impeachment inquiry open for two years without ever forcing a floor vote shows that control alone does not always produce one. Several models also flagged timing, a brand-new Congress rarely passes articles within its first eight weeks, which is why the panel prices the March 2027 rung at 7% against the market's 24 cents. Weigh a likely-but-uncertain flip against a conditional-action rate the panel pegged closer to 30% to 55%, and the math lands near 38%, not 62%.
The one-line read: the market and our panel agree the current House will not impeach and that the 2026 midterms are the whole story. They split on what a new majority would do with control. The market prices the "flip, then impeach" chain at 62 cents; our panel, weighing how often control actually converts to a floor vote, prices it closer to 38.
What The Market Is Pricing
At 62 cents before both January 2028 and the end of the term, and just 4 cents before January 2027, the market is drawing a clean picture: no impeachment under the current Congress, and a better-than-even chance that whoever wins the House in November 2026 impeaches Trump at some point afterward. The near-flat step from January 2028 to January 2029, both at 62 cents, says traders think almost all of the impeachment risk that will ever materialize is concentrated in 2027, the first year of the next House, rather than spread across the later term. Our panel, which never saw these prices, agrees on the pivot, that the risk is a post-flip, 2027-forward story, but reads the shape a little differently: it prices the near term lower than the market and, unlike the flat 62-to-62 market step, still adds meaningful probability across 2028 and 2029 (29% to 38%), so its total sits below the market even as it spreads the tail wider.
Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles. You can see how this series has scored on past calls in the full graded scoreboard, which we rebuild as markets resolve.
The Panel: How Six Models Read It
Our panel runs eight AI seats; six returned a verdict on this board this cycle (the other two were unavailable at run time, and we report that rather than quietly backfill it). Each model received the same dated, sourced context, the settlement rule, the impeachment record, the current House math, and the live midterm polling, and never saw a market price. Each built one distribution over whether and when the House acts and read the deadlines off it, so its numbers are internally consistent by construction. The table shows the post-revision figures.
| Model | Before Jan 1, 2028 | Full term (before Jan 20, 2029) |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 32% | 46% |
| Claude Opus | 30% | 42% |
| Claude Sonnet | 17% | 24% |
| GLM 5.2 | 27% | 36% |
| Kimi K3 | 45% | 55% |
| DeepSeek V4 | 22% | 25% |
| Blended Verdict | 29% | 38% |
Model estimates generated 2026-08-03. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
The six seats span a wide band on the full-term question, from 24% to 55%, and the equal-weight mean lands at 38%, about 24 points below the market's 62-cent quote. Every seat agrees on the near rungs and on the reason the ladder steps where it does; they disagree on how confidently a flipped House converts to a passed impeachment. Nobody on the panel treats it as a lock, and nobody treats it as near-zero.
The Full Reasoning
These rationales are reproduced from the run. The panel also ran a second round in which each model read the others' anonymized reasoning and could revise, an experiment we run to see whether reading the room sharpens the estimate. On this board it produced the clearest single revision of the series.
DeepSeek V4 (revised 73% → 25% on the full term): The largest move on the board, and toward more caution, not less. DeepSeek opened as the panel's most bullish seat and then cut its number by nearly two-thirds after reading the others. Its stated reason: "I revised sharply downward because I had underweighted the historical base rate of impeachment given opposite-party House control, roughly 30%, which other forecasters correctly emphasized." That is the panel working as designed: a model recognizing it had multiplied a likely flip by too high a conditional-action rate, and correcting once a peer surfaced the base rate.
Claude Opus (revised 15% → 42%): The mirror image, a move upward. Opus started as the panel's most skeptical seat and raised its full-term estimate after peers pushed back: "I raised my rungs toward the peer cluster after being persuaded I had underweighted the conditional-action rate given Trump's two prior impeachments by opposition Houses, but stayed below the highest peers because bringing and passing still requires votes a narrow majority may lack." Two seats moving toward each other from opposite extremes is the convergence round doing its job.
Claude Sonnet (24%, held low): The panel's low anchor, and it stayed there with a specific reason: "peers correctly flagged that D+5 and negative-18 approval against a razor-thin majority pushes flip probability high, but the 2023-24 impeachment-inquiry precedent, control with no floor vote in two years, is direct counter-evidence that control alone does not yield a conditional-action rate above about 50%." A well-defended outlier is worth more than a drift to the mean.
Kimi K3 (55%, held high): The panel's top seat trimmed its early-window rung but held its overall level: "I cut the March 2027 rung on the sound structural point that a brand-new Congress rarely passes articles within eight weeks, but held mid-range because low conditional estimates ignore the twice-demonstrated 2019 and 2021 pattern." Kimi is the clearest statement of the bull case within the panel.
Claude Fable (46%) and GLM 5.2 (36%): The two middle seats bracket the blend. Fable framed it cleanly as "a roughly 70% Democratic House flip times a roughly 60% conditional that the new majority actually impeaches." GLM held after the revision round, noting peers surfaced no new card facts, and kept its conditional-action estimate moderate given what it called "the unprecedented third-impeachment overhang and 1998 backlash risk."
The common thread across all six: every model located the same pivot, the 2026 midterms, and the same crux, the conditional probability that a flipped House actually votes. Where they split is honest and narrow: how much to discount control into action. The revision round collapsed the panel's original spread: its most bullish and most bearish seats each moved sharply, DeepSeek down from 73% and Opus up from 15%, tightening the board before the blend landed at 38%.
The Near-Term Tail Worth Watching
The panel's near rungs are not quite zero, and it is worth naming why. A House impeaching a president of its own party has no modern precedent, which is why the models floor the 2026 rungs at 1% to 3% rather than at absolute zero: the tail covers only an extraordinary, discrete event large enough to fracture the current majority, the kind of trigger nobody can price in advance. Absent that, the current Congress is not the story. The one development that would move every number on this board is the 2026 midterm result itself; until November, the later rungs are a forecast of a forecast, and the honest posture is a wide band, which is exactly what the panel drew.
Where You Can Actually Read This Market
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and its event contracts are 18+, and state availability changes often enough that a list frozen into an article would be the wrong place to read it. Check eligibility on the platform, then use our prediction-market legality guide for the state-by-state detail and our guide to how prediction markets work for the mechanics of reading a quote. Because this board is entirely a House-control question, the natural companion is our 2026 House control verdict, where the same panel prices the flip that gates this one, and our 2026 Senate election verdict for the other chamber.
What is worth weighing here is the distance between two independent reads. A liquid market of real traders prices Trump at 62 cents to be impeached before his term ends; a price-blind panel of six models, fed the same facts, lands at 38. They agree on the mechanism and the timing and disagree only on the size of the conditional, which is the cleanest kind of disagreement to have, because it points at exactly the number to watch after November 2026.
OddsShopper's core is the sports side, where our free expert picks and odds tools live; this prediction-market series is the newer lane, and we grade every call in it publicly rather than sell you a subscription off it.
FAQ
Will Trump be impeached?
It is possible but far from settled. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, runs a market on whether the U.S. House impeaches President Trump before his term ends on January 20, 2029, and it prices that at about 62 cents. Our six-model AI panel, run without seeing the price, landed lower, near 38%. Both agree the current Republican-controlled House will not impeach him; the entire question is whether the 2026 midterms hand control to the opposition and whether that new majority then acts.
Has Trump already been impeached?
Yes, twice, but not during this term. Donald Trump was impeached by the House on December 18, 2019 and again on January 13, 2021, the only president ever impeached twice. The Senate acquitted him both times, so he was not removed from office. This Kalshi market is about a fresh impeachment during his current term, which began in January 2025, and no impeachment resolution has passed the current House.
What is the difference between impeachment and removal?
Impeachment is only the first step. The House impeaches by a simple majority, which is a formal charge, not a removal from office. To actually remove a president, the Senate must then convict by a two-thirds supermajority. No president has ever been removed by the Senate; Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Trump (twice) were all impeached and then acquitted. This Kalshi market resolves on House impeachment alone, not conviction or removal.
Why do the odds jump after the 2026 midterms?
Because whichever party controls the House decides whether an impeachment vote even happens. Republicans hold the House through the end of 2026, and the market prices almost no chance they impeach a president of their own party. The newly elected House is seated in January 2027, so the odds climb only after the November 3, 2026 midterms could change who holds the gavel. That is why the ladder sits near 4 cents before January 2027 and jumps to 62 cents by January 2028.
Are these model verdicts advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates of how a market might resolve, not financial advice, not legal predictions, and not a political endorsement. Treat them as one neutral input among many. Prediction-market contracts on Kalshi are CFTC-regulated event contracts, available to those 18 and older where legal.
The Real Answer To "Will He Be Impeached"
Strip away the mechanics and this board answers a question millions of people type into a search bar. Will Trump be impeached? A live CFTC-regulated market says better than even, at 62 cents, over the full remaining term. Six AI models that never saw that price say less likely than not, at 38. Both agree on the shape of it: the current House will not act, the 2026 midterms are the hinge, and the real uncertainty is not whether the opposition can win the House but whether a new majority would spend the votes to impeach a third time. That is the number to watch, and it does not become knowable until November.
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