The Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners board opens with Pete Crow-Armstrong at +351 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +351 | Kalshi | 22.2% | 37 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +375 | BetMGM 🎁 | 21.1% | 34 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 26 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 36 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 34 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 34 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 33 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +600 | Fanatics | 14.3% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at T-Mobile Park: park index 110.6 · wind 6 mph.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — 35% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 18 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +337 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +333
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 20 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465
- Michael Busch (CHC) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · homers every 22 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +310 at BetMGM
- Taylor Ward (SEA) — 13% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 24 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637
- Ian Happ (CHC) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 25 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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