Eugenio Suárez (+525) and Sal Stewart (+550) lead tonight's Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suárez (CIN) | +525 | Unibet | 16.0% | 32 |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 34 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 36 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 34 |
| Michael Toglia (CIN) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 23 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +657 | ProphetX | 13.2% | 35 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | +670 | DraftKings 🎁 | 13.0% | 33 |
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Chase Field: park index 105.3 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 45% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — homers every 24 PA against lefties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +575 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +545
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 45% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Michael Toglia (CIN) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +600 at BetMGM
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — homers every 22 PA against lefties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +857
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — on the bat alone — homers every 34 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +725 at BetMGM
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
More from these experts on Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks. The Bet Baba posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
