Matt Olson (+456) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (+550) lead tonight's Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +456 | NoVig | 18.0% | 35 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 35 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 34 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 34 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 33 |
| Gary Sánchez (MIL) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 33 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | +755 | Kalshi | 11.7% | 35 |
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | +770 | NoVig | 11.5% | 32 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at American Family Field: park index 83.1 · wind 5 mph.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — homers every 18 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +406
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — homers every 20 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +525 at Fanatics
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — homers every 20 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — homers every 23 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +637
- Gary Sánchez (MIL) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +550 at Bet365
- Austin Riley (ATL) — on the bat alone — homers every 31 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence A)
- books: best +600 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Brice Turang (MIL) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at BetMGM
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails (#6 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes 8-leg parlay on this game. Bet now → Bet365
- Ziny Bets on Tails likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+125). Bet now → ProphetX
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers. KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
