Miguel Vargas (+381) and Munetaka Murakami (+381) lead tonight's New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 34 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 34 |
| Randal Grichuk (CHW) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 32 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +450 | TheScore | 18.2% | 32 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 37 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 32 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 33 |
| Carson Benge (NYM) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rate Field: park index 102.5 · wind 6 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +358 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +358
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes sinkers and cutters 16% of the time, and that is 21% of what this starter throws · homers every 25 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +333 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +333
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +451 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +451
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM) — homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +475 at BetMGM
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · 33% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +350 at BetMGM
- Brett Baty (NYM) — homers every 26 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Bet365
- Jared Young (NYM) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 35% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +608 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +608
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — punishes curveballs 14% of the time, and that is 13% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Brett Baty Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+850). Bet now → Bet365
- JediModi on Tails likes Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+340).
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-140). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox. EdgeAI Plus, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
