The Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals board opens with Jac Caglianone at +500 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | +500 | PointsBet | 16.7% | 8 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | +540 | Unibet | 15.6% | 34 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | +540 | Unibet | 15.6% | 33 |
| Carter Jensen (KC) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 34 |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 33 |
| Eduardo Valencia (DET) | +600 | Bet99ON | 14.3% | 23 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | +625 | Kalshi | 13.8% | 31 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Kauffman Stadium: park index 93.8 · wind 4 mph.
- Salvador Perez (KC) — punishes sinkers and cutters 15% of the time, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · homers every 19 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +520 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — homers every 27 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +540 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) — punishes curveballs 16% of the time, and that is 10% of what this starter throws · homers every 26 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +588 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +588
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 19% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — homers every 29 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +790 at FanDuel
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 17% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +680 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +637
- Hao-Yu Lee (DET) — on the bat alone — homers every 48 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +680 at FanDuel
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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