Byron Buxton (+325) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+475) lead tonight's Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +325 | Bet365 | 23.5% | 33 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 37 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 34 |
| Josh Bell (MIN) | +500 | Fanatics | 16.7% | 32 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +519 | ProphetX | 16.2% | 36 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 32 |
| Ty France (SD) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 34 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | +650 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.3% | 33 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Petco Park: park index 99.4 · wind 3 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 23% of what this starter throws · homers every 20 PA against lefties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +456 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +421 · NoVig +456
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — homers every 27 PA against lefties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +475 at Bet365
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 29% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Ty France (SD) — on the bat alone — homers every 48 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Luis Campusano (SD) — on the bat alone — nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +800 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Xander Bogaerts (SD) — on the bat alone — homers every 71 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +750 at BetMGM
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but this starter's mix is an awkward one for him. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1300 at Fanatics
- Luis Rengifo (SD) — on the bat alone — homers every 71 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-115). Bet now → TheScore
- EMac on Tails likes San Diego Padres -1.5 Run Line (+175). Bet now → HardRock
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Total Hits (+195). Bet now → Polymarket
- JediModi on Tails likes Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+400). Bet now → BetRivers
More from these experts on Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres. JediModi posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
