The San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox board opens with Rafael Devers at +608 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Bericoto (SF) | +500 | PointsBet | 16.7% | 1 |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +608 | ProphetX | 14.1% | 36 |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | +640 | DraftKings 🎁 | 13.5% | 34 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | +647 | ProphetX | 13.4% | 34 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +647 | ProphetX | 13.4% | 33 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 34 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +950 | Fanatics | 9.5% | 30 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +1050 | Fanatics | 8.7% | 28 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Fenway Park: park index 81.9 · wind 5 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — homers every 18 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Rafael Devers (SF) — homers every 19 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · NoVig +590
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — punishes four-seam fastballs 17% of the time, and that is 18% of what this starter throws · homers every 22 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +529
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — homers every 29 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics
- Willy Adames (SF) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 9% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +578
- Turner Hill (SF) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1440 at DraftKings
- Drew Gilbert (SF) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1095 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +1095
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Sonny Gray Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-102). Bet now
More from these experts on San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. MisterMarkot posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
