Shohei Ohtani (+262) and Max Muncy (+325) lead tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +262 | BookMaker | 27.6% | 36 |
| Max Muncy (OAK) | +300 | FanDuel 🎁 | 25.0% | 2 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | +325 | Bet365 | 23.5% | 28 |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 33 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 32 |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 35 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 36 |
| Teoscar Hernández (LAD) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 26 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium: park index 117.6 · wind 2 mph.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 52% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +257 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +257
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — homers every 15 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +451
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) — homers every 20 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at Fanatics
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465
- Andy Pages (LAD) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 25 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — on the bat alone — homers every 32 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +475 at Fanatics
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EMac on Tails likes Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-104). Bet now → FanDuel
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+287). Bet now → DraftKings
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Max Muncy Over 1.5 Total Bases (+220). Bet now → HardRock
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+217). Bet now
More from these experts on Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The Bet Baba posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
