Mariners vs Brewers Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 7:40 PM ET. Moneyline: Mariners +140 (HardRock) at Brewers -150 (HardRock) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers board opens with Cal Raleigh at +450 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 34 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | +460 | Unibet | 17.9% | 35 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +475 | ProphetX | 17.4% | 35 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 27 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 35 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
| Taylor Ward (SEA) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 32 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | +608 | ProphetX | 14.1% | 32 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 03:50 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at American Family Field: park index 104.2 · wind 2 mph.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 52% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +376
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 52% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +470 · NoVig +456
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +407 · NoVig +426
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 50% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +550 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +475 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +475 · NoVig +456
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +545
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 43% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +666 · NoVig +669
- William Contreras (MIL) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +614 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +614
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EMac on Tails likes these plays:
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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