Mariners vs Brewers Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Wed 7:40 PM ET. On the mound: Logan Gilbert (Mariners) vs Dustin May (Brewers). Moneyline: Mariners +117 (Betcris) at Brewers -120 (HardRock) — best prices across 11 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Jake Bauers at +500 headlines the Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 29 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 29 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +525 | NoVig | 16.0% | 29 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 30 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +575 | Bet365 | 14.8% | 21 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | +657 | ProphetX | 13.2% | 28 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 30 |
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 28 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 09:05 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at American Family Field: park index 83.7 · wind 3 mph.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 37% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +456 · NoVig +525
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 37% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +426 · NoVig +413
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 37% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · ProphetX +451 · NoVig +488
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +490 · NoVig +471
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 57% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +545
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +755 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · ProphetX +637 · NoVig +669
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +676 · NoVig +641
- Brice Turang (MIL) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +657 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +657 · NoVig +614
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EMac on Tails likes these plays:
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers today? Jake Bauers at +500 (Bet365) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
