The Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles board opens with Junior Caminero at +350 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +350 | Bet365 | 22.2% | 36 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 37 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +425 | Bet365 | 19.0% | 4 |
| Samuel Basallo (BAL) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 32 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +475 | Bet99ON | 17.4% | 16 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +500 | TheScore | 16.7% | 16 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +529 | ProphetX | 15.9% | 36 |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: park index 106.4 · wind 4 mph.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 64% of what this starter throws · homers every 18 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +358 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +343 · NoVig +344
- Junior Caminero (TB) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +337 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +337
- Samuel Basallo (BAL) — homers every 19 PA against righties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +406
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — homers every 19 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — homers every 32 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +402 at DraftKings
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) — homers every 34 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +666
- Colton Cowser (BAL) — on the bat alone — homers every 26 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MassMoneyline on Tails likes Over 8.5 Total Runs (+100). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+102). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Colton Cowser Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+750). Bet now → Bet365
- JediModi on Tails likes Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+350). Bet now → Bet365
More from these experts on Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles. JediModi, MassMoneyline post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
